Eurovision 2024

I've been backing Switzerland from 24s, although my average is only at 13.91 now.

Was hoping I could keep quietly backing it before a price dump, but cat is out the bag now at 8/1.

"The Code" is one of the only songs this year that should do well with both juries and the televote. However, I have to say this is one of the most competitive editions ever

Wow I thought this thread would be huge. It's the biggest specials market by far. Not that I have much to say myself atm, I've only just started getting into it.

Nice play on Switz Lifter. I love it but it's in the same genre as Croatia so I can't see it winning.

People tend to get involved in the weeks leading up to the final, if memory serves me right. Any you fancy so far?

i think croatia. wish i'd followed it from the beginning. i think it will get jury love.

I'm a bit concerned with Nemo (Switzerland) wearing a tutu dress. While the whole point of the song is about being non-binary, I'm not sure how well Europe takes to that. I mean, Conchita had no problem, but this I duno

I'm not really following it yet, hope to soon.
Nemo's live performances have been great. It could never match the going through the train changing characters, just like Croatia could never match the farmyard. I still think Croatia has more to it, musically, performance, and lyrics.

For years, I used to watch an early vt of every country, just the one watch for each, and then back or lay, according to how much I liked them. I even started trains on Israel one year, priced at 320, and Germany another year at 400, both times convinced I had a jackpot winner, purely because I liked them so much, how could everybody else not agree???. Eventually, with a 20-odd years track record of something like 15 losers, maybe 12 of them max reds, I learnt my lesson; that I'm so out of touch with modern music, that I had better stop listening to the songs, even just that one time.


I then wondered if what I call 'blanket laying', (which I'd used over the years, with modest success, for SPOTY), would do the job? As soon as you see the market's been loaded, leave lays up on every runner, all at the same randomly chosen price. Then sit back, hoping you'd lay enough of them through the year to leave you in front. This strategy works best in events that go on for quite a while, allowing time for numerous runners to crash through your lay price, before drifting as the next shooting star makes its run. With the ESC market lasting 7-8 months, it fits that criterion.


I have no records for the three or four years I've been blanket laying ESC, but memory says this year's market has been fairly typical of the last two or three. I did these figures a week ago, (one or two price changes since that I can't be bothered to update, they're irrelevant), but these are each country's lowest matched price, and what would have happened if you'd blanket laid this year, at any old Plumped For Figure;


2.02 LIT (now 160)
2.02 GEO (now 450)....PFF of 3.0, you've laid two of them, waiting for one more, but feeling pretty good with those two lays!

3.15 UKR
3.3 SWI
3.85 CRO
4.0 ISR....PFF of 4.0, you've laid six of them, they're 2pts green, the field 6pts green

4.7 ICE....PFF of 5.0, you've laid seven of them, they're 2pts green, the field 7pts green

5.1 ITA
6.0 UK....PFF of 6.0, you've laid nine of them, they're 3pts green, the field 9pts green

PFF of 7.0, you've laid nine of them, they're 2pts green, the field 9pts green

7.2 SWE
7.4 GRE....PFF of 8.0, you've laid 11 of them, they're 3pts green, the field 11pts green

8.2 NET
8.4 FIN
9.0 NOR....PFF of 9.0, you've laid 14 of them, they're 5pts green, the field 14pts green

PFF of 10.0, you've laid 14 of them, they're 4pts green, the field 14pts green

PFF of 11.0, you've laid 14 of them, they're 3pts green, the field 14pts green

11.5 AUS
11.5 MOL....PFF of 12.0, you've laid 16 of them, they're 4pts green, the field 16pts green

13 BEL
13 ARM....PFF of 13.0, you've laid 18 of them, they're 5pts green, the field 18pts green

14 GER
14 SPA....PFF of 14.0, you've laid 20 of them, they're 6pts green, the field 20pts green

PFF of 15.0, you've laid 20 of them, they're 5pts green, the field 20pts green

PFF of 16.0, you've laid 20 of them, they're 4pts green, the field 20pts green

16.5 FRA
17 AZE.....PFF of 17.0, you've laid 22 of them, they're 5pts green, the field 22pts green

PFF of 18.0, you've laid 22 of them, they're 4pts green, the field 22pts green

18.5 POL
19 EST.....PFF of 19.0, you've laid 24 of them, they're 5pts green, the field 24pts green

19.5 DEN
20 IRE
20 ALB.....PFF of 20, you've laid 27 of them, they're 7pts green, the field 27pts green


As we can see, blanket laying at any price between my randomly chosen parameters of 3.0 and 20 would have been profitable.
It then occurred to me that if laying at any price was profitable, laying at every price would be, well, better!


As we can also see, if your first blanket lay was at 20, you laid 27 of them, they're all 7pts green, the field 27pts green.

If you then also lay the ones that went on to hit 19.0, you'd have now laid 24 of the initial 27 twice, 3 of them just the once. But, as we can also see, a blanket lay of everything that hit 19.0 resulted in those, (in this case), 24 runners all ending up as 5pts green, the field 24pts green. Given that those 24 were already 7pts green, (from laying 27 runners at 20), and that laying them again at 19.0 leaves them 5pts greener and the field 24pts greener, we've now had a total of 51 lays, with 27 of those lays leaving 3 countries 31pts green, (the already existing 7pts+24 from the lays at 19), the other 24 as 12pts green, (the initial 7 plus the extra 5pts from laying 24 runners at 19.0), the field 51pts green, (the 27 at 20 plus 24 at 19.0).

Then lay again all of those that go on to hit 18.0...
Then lay again all of those that go on to hit 17.0...

and so on, all the way down to 3.0.

If you'd laid every runner as they hit each integer price point from 20 down to 3.0, you would have had 276 lays, with each laid runner being between 69 and 256pts green; the unlaid field, anything that hadn't hit 20 (yet!) 276pts green.

I've thought of a few tweaks and 'ifs or buts', none of which would be detrimental, only potentially positive, improving the bare figures, really can't wait to put it into action next year!

Croatia, thought it should be shorter, looks like a classic cult like euro song that always do well.

Switzerland, the 15 second rap was ok the rest was sh1te for me.

Ukraine, total sh1te, they've had their sympathy win, that now will be a millstone around the neck, their songs will have to be proper good and then some in future to win but as said, this is garbage.

Italy, tasty bird, okish song.

Netherlands, sounded like a cross between barbie girl and the witch doctor from tiny pops I used to watch with my kids 20 years ago...pants.

France....Not sure the bloke will make it through without having a coronary, needs to ease it back a bit...do power ballads win, not for me.

Expect Croatia to shorten up through the week.

Anyone recommend a live outsider for this?  I've listened to the top 6 in the betting and they all sound like garbage to me.  My ears can't take anymore. Also, is there a reason why that noisy Croatian shyte is a 2.2 fav?  I noticed some of you have tipped it. Has it something to do with political block voting or is there some kind of fix going on you guys have heard about?

Ireland literally diabolical, matched at 10.5, but nfc
UK should be on porn channels, not Saturday night family viewing

Totally agree. Had it stayed a solo with a big moment towards the end you would have it much shorter outright. I backed it and layed Ireland at the same odds.

Rim Tim Tagi Dim

Ay, I'm a big boy now. I'm going away and I sold my cow

that won't be far away, some performance by the lad ...

I'd only heard Ireland once, weeks ago. WTF were backers thinking over the last day or two? No really, WTF???

I'd only heard Ireland once, weeks ago. WTF were backers thinking over the last day or two? No really, WTF???

£2,700 available to lay at 1.01 & 1.02 it qualifies.  lay the lot.

Just went there to lay some 1.01 as you suggested but, unsurprisingly, it's quadrupled in price.

can still lay ireland not to qualify for £900 tim

only cost you £36 if they do ...

Quite like Australia, just lacking a decent brass
section instead of the diggerydo

1.05 now

hulk, just for you, I've left a small bit of a gesture up at 1.01, happy enough to lay that

anymore 1.04 left for ireland turning up at the weekend tim ??