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Eurovision 2024
Eurovision 2024
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Israel tonight's big winner, 65/70-odd down to 14.5, maybe lower
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8.0 now
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laying isreal is possibly (but most probably not) laying mossad, Still, not a bet I'm taking
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5.9 £64.72 £870.56
6 £183.00 £746.95 6.2 £49.43 £589.16 6.4 £2,231.53 6.6 £37.40 £354.99 6.8 £75.00 £1,092.87 7 £136.15 £1,874.37 7.2 £25.00 £663.97 7.4 £3.44 £1,463.42 7.6 £25.00 £1,633.76 7.8 £2,180.15 8 £28.44 £4,846.06 8.2 £3,510.19 8.4 £43.42 £5,586.60 8.6 £5,010.00 8.8 £67.00 £2,991.09 9 £93.59 £6,568.61 Matched on Israel. Incredible. |
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6.0-6.2 Israel
mossad for the win  |
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4.9--5.0 [Shocked emoji]
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Televoting uries were different for 2 semis so hard to be sure
how they combine, but suggests Israel has done very well on tele votes tonite. Once jury votes are known tomorrow night the market will tell us who wins, or get it wrong, perhaps. |
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Televoting juries
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In from 40 (before tonight's semi performance I think) to 2.12 on the 'Tele vote winner market'
beyond the twilight zone |
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I suppose folk(punters) thought people might side against israel
and now it's a scramble to balance. With early betting tipping that Israel have stormed televote tonight. |
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Pro palestinians will have to vote Croatia to
stop them... |
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https://lefteast.org/we-asked-how-is-the-suppression-of-palestinian-solidarity-unfolding-in-croatia/
Croatia has never recognized a Palestinian state or established diplomatic relations despite the long history of collaboration with the Palestinian liberation movements during the Non-Aligned era. time to recognize them tomorrow to get these votes. |
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Supposed leak of Italian votes might explain some of it
Israël kreeg 39,31 procent van de Italiaanse televote stemmen voor het nummer Hurricane van Eden Golan. Ter vergelijk, de nummer twee in Italië was Nederland met Europapa van Joost Klein met 7,32 procent van de Italiaanse televotes That's a big margin, if true. |
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I'm thinking Switzerland is the natural neutral compromise in these war torn times. reasonable act, plausible winner.
I've been getting pennies matched on the televote, 76p for £225 Selection Odds Stake Profit / Liability Switzerland 280 £0.07 £19.53 Ref: 347948126950 Matched: 23:59 09-May-24 Switzerland 280 £0.03 £8.37 Ref: 347948126950 Matched: 23:59 09-May-24 Switzerland 300 £0.09 £26.91 Ref: 347946687769 Matched: 23:42 09-May-24 Switzerland 300 £0.09 £26.91 Ref: 347946687769 Matched: 23:42 09-May-24 Switzerland 300 £0.09 £26.91 Ref: 347946687769 Matched: 23:38 09-May-24 Switzerland 300 £0.07 £20.93 |
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https://twitter.com/ESCdiscord/status/1788681278142718097?s=19
.. |
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Swiss 6th on Italian televote at 6%
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Eurovision finally got their own John Cena:
https://twitter.com/ESCdiscord/status/1788681278142718097?s=19 |
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Israel 6th
Ukraine 2nd |
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running order for final
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21 swiss
23 croatia |
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Croatia 2.16
Israel 3.6 |
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Is there a case for backing Israel simply on the politics?
Can see them attracting votes from a portion of the population based on the usual right-wing anti-muslim lobby. But there's no obvious pro-Gaza vote to counter that and it will surely be split. |
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In theory yes, because you can only vote FOR and not AGAINST, so unless the anti Isreal lobby decides to pick a certain country to vote for those votes should be split.
What goes against that is that Eurovision has historically not attracted that right-wing demographic, so it would be odd for them to get involved now, but there's a first for everything and we shall find out on Saturday. |
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Maybe some neutral people see the dog whistle anti Semitism in the legacy media and political mainstream, see history repeating itself and want to show Jewish people some support, Israel in EV being a proxy. The 'silent majority' kicking in perhaps. It's quite a similar prospectus that allowed us to make a killing on Ukraine a couple of years back. The obvious difference being that undercurrent on AS in the mainstream, at least from a UK perspective. IMV EV votes are very very thin and widely spread, so it does not take too much of a positive incentive to 'win' them. Juries of course quite possibly pivotal (fwiw I had not even listened to a 2024 entry until Tuesday).
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I'm not as certain as I was with Ukraine. It's not easy to predict how this will play out across ALL of the participating nations, for me at least. I'd be quite positive on Israel winning the UK televote, for example. But a sweep as strong as Ukr 2022, not a given. Be wonderful to see the bbc squirming in discomfort however :)
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if you look at these surveys by yougov, there's a tremendous difference in sympathy in the Ukraine/Russia conflict compared to the Israel/Palestine conflict. If you want to believe that survey and that people aren't secretly pro Israel. I think this is UK only.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Internal_IP_RU_240319_W.pdf |
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That being said, that only suggests it won't be a landslide win in the televote like for Ukraine. They could still win the televote due to "can only vote FOR, not AGAINST" and it might be enough to win the whole thing.
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I think Croatia will win the Public Vote still. I think it's the one they would like to win too, like Sweden last year. I wonder if they are able to influence the jury's in anyway. After all they got a landslide Jury for their preferred Sweden last year.
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It's not about the initial invasion of Israel and the response, per se. The so called war. It's blaming ALL Jewish people for whatever has happened. Which is palpably absurd. It's no different to blaming all muslims for islamists blowing up children. And I feel like fair minded, rational people can see the gaslighting and intimidation of say British Jews. And the rank media bias. As I say, I'm not certain, but I can see how it might play out. I bing searched it just now and the top story is chock full of anti Israel garbage .https://metro.co.uk/2024/05/10/eurovision-2024-fans-dont-words-israels-vote-percentage-leaks-20811762/
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fwiw, blaming ALL Russians for Putin's actions is equally despicable. They should not have been banned from participating in EV.
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I don't see the motivation for voting Israel as being even remotely close to Ukraine in 2022. Perhaps it's more co ordinated than that though. It's a very good entry and great vocals but without skulduggery at foot you would say 18k 3.3 outright and odds on in the public vote was sheer insanity
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Definitely not as easy as Ukraine. If Palestine were an entrant here then they'd be no offers probably. But can still see support for one candidate while the anti-lobby has no one in particular to pick.
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I thought the top 4 would be between Croatia, France, Switzerland and Ukraine. With the factors of something going on with Israel and Ukraine's slot in 2 I am less confident.
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Israel did go down as low as 3.3. Currently 4.0
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They will drift on the jury score run, win or not.
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