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There are also changes to the Rest of the World vote.
“Additionally, fans in non-participating countries (Rest of The World) will now have nearly 24 hours to vote for their favourite songs before each of the live shows begins.” “Online voting will open for the Rest of The World immediately after the second dress rehearsal for each Semi-Final and Grand Final finishes the previous night and stays open until the live shows begin.” more stuff to potentially leak. |
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or, alternatively, are cheering them on.
Anyhoo. Back to the punting on it, not rehashing the pros and cons. |
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Israel were 2nd in the jury last year
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I'm stating that voting for Israel for many would be a proxy for showing support to Jews around the world. That's the hypothesis. The so called war is just an excuse for transparent Jew hate. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the triggering invasion and response.
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Like these dumb fukks with their cultural appropriation sticking up tents on lawns of unis and demanding to be fed. Most likely could not find Gaza on a map with three pins.
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Very true Cider !
I think it will be a contributing factor, but just nowhere near to the extent the market is thinking. For the market to be right it would need to be more coordinated/mischievous I believe ! |
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israel were 50 on here last time i looked. now 9/4 and will probably win. it appears the protestors have scored a massive own goal here!
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Ukraine won the televote by a landslide in 2022 when the war was fresh. Down to 4th last year but still strong support, and something similar or slightly weaker should be expected this year. Fairly strong support. So how many politicial voters are there, are there enough for both Ukraine and Israel? Or will the politicial voters simply vote for Israel rather than Ukraine this year? I find that hard to believe.
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Guess it depends upon if you believe the leak AR, and it's extrapolated across all of the voting nations and the bigger final vote. The obvious play is to get involved during the jury reveal.
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political voters aka sympathy voters
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UKR had been rewarded in 2022 so it was never going to be replicated on such a wide scale in 2023. What it did achieve was show that it was a good way for the public to reflect support on a global platform. Obviously EV won't want it to become an annual vehicle for propaganda, and they definitely would prefer Israel to be an also ran.
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As it gathers steam, I'd now be expecting every Jewish person across Europe to be getting nudged about what's happening, and how they've got a chance to influence stuff and allow Israel to say "see, everyone backs us really". There's a large Jewish diaspora around Europe, and while they won't care about EV, they will care about Israel. Really think this is a runner more I think of it.
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Couple of questions:
1) How often is the market VERY wrong on Eurovision? I've got very little experience of it over the last 2 years, but it seems to nail it in an almost f1xed way. 2) Would EV which has been trying to distance itself from politics want the potential radioactive hot potato of holding the competition in Jerusalem next year, as would happen should Israel win this year? |
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I would equate it much more to the anti Ulez and Khan vote for London Mayor which saw him go 1.01 to 1.4 but then still win by a big margin. There's no way Jews across Europe are going to vote in such a significant number imho. I'm sure it will be a factor but for the odds on public vote to come in, it will be something more coordinated than this imho
No one on my WhatsApp group that watched the semi final was even aware that Israel received boos as the producer cleverly played claps over it |
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The market can be out from time to time but you'd go poor opposing the strong money generally. It's the only specials event that I have not been able to fully conquer. At times it has been incredibly obvious that there is knowledge dripping into the market, but it's not all the time.
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EG if it was just my opinion I could not have Croatia even money. But I have learned to respect that there are better people than me at eurovision generally ! So I don't even look at it until final week these days.
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You only have to look at the draw he gave Israel compared to Croatia and Switzerland to see the SF2 result has likely scared him !
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Eurovision is so much more touted elsewhere than in uk.
Bbc sticking 2 semis on beeb 1 has increased interest a bit. Money should tell after tonites vote. Be prepared. |
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*rules
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although you could argue, and I find merit in that, that EBU don't won't this in Ukraine or Israel and gave them both early slots to hurt their chances.
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as far as censoring boos goes, I think that's more because they want to portrait a "We're all a big Eurovision family" feeling. If they really wanted to hurt Israel's chances, they would let the boos be heard. But I think the former is more important to them.
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At this stage in over a £2,000,000 market, some people know how half the competition is voting and judging for 20 of the 25 finalists. Insiders are a given for sure.
I agree with the early voting SMB. I think I'm this day and age people have short attention spans so can see a good one on early maybe getting many more votes than the past. Ukraine went out to 3.0 for top 4 after the draw which I think is an over reaction for sure |
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Don't see Joost getting disqualified but there might be some juice prices on last place for Netherlands. If that would be paid out, DQ in this comp would be a first.
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This year's ESC is sure delivering on the drama front.
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Have we seen any other recent numbers/polls involving Israel other than the Italian televote?
This is from Swedish newspaper aftonbladet asking which song people liked best in SF 2 and Israel got 40% there as well! Vem är bäst i semifinal 2? Malta 3% Albanien 3% Grekland 3% Schweiz 7% Tjeckien 2% Frankrike 5% Österrike 3% Danmark 5% Armenien 2% Lettland 2% Spanien 3% San Marino 1% Georgien 1% Belgien 1% Estland 2% Italien 3% Israel 40% Norge 7% Nederländerna 8% Frågan startades den 09 maj 2024. Totalt har 39196 personer svarat på frågan. Omröstningen är tänkt att ge en bild av vad läsarna på Aftonbladet.se tycker. Resultatet behöver inte vara representativt för alla och bör tolkas med försiktighet. Gå tillbaka till frågan https://www.aftonbladet.se/nojesbladet/melodifestivalen/a/1MkajM/semifinal-2-eurovision-song-contest-2024-lander-bidrag-artister-startordning , |
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For comparison same question for SF 1:
Vem var din favorit i första semifinalen? Cypern 7% Serbien 3% Litauen 3% Irland 5% Ukraina 12% Polen 3% Kroatien 24% Island 3% Slovenien 1% Finland 25% Moldavien 1% Azerbajdzjan 1% Australien 3% Portugal 2% Luxemburg 4% Frågan startades den 07 maj 2024. Totalt har 37072 personer svarat på frågan. Omröstningen är tänkt att ge en bild av vad läsarna på Aftonbladet.se tycker. Resultatet behöver inte vara representativt för alla och bör tolkas med försiktighet. Gå tillbaka till frågan |
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All this rank juvenile behaviour from so many EV stakeholders is only going to have the opposite impact to what they are hoping for. Such a sympathetic act to direct their vitriol to as well. I never thought we would get such an interesting event as 2022 again, and here we are just the two years later! If the juries are fair (that's s big if!) Eden should actually score pretty well with them as a starting point.
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https://www.rai.it/ufficiostampa/assets/template/us-articolo.html?ssiPath=%2Farticoli%2F2024%2F05%2FESC-2024-inconveniente-tecnicoESC-2024-inconveniente-tecnico-784b900c-ca7f-47e6-9a41-1e2af801ada8-ssi.html
RAI published a statement. Not sure what "The published votes are in fact incomplete." means. |
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corporate speak isn't it, they can hide behind partial as it doesn't include jury scores, ie not the complete result for italy
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Could be, could also be that those numbers were only for a certain percentage of the tele votes and not all. If Israel doesn't get a 10 or a 12 from the Italian televote tomorrow something is very fishy.
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Sweden going 40% for Israel to Switzerland and Netherlands 6/7% like Italy is incredible numbers ! Makes the 1.3x Netherlands for that semi final look crazy, as was there sub 1.3 for top 10 ! He is a twerp so nice to see them seemingly bust. We await results though of course !
I was not surprised that Israel beat Netherlands but I was expecting Switzerland to get more tele votes ! |
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There's no small sample that would randomly favour Israel to such an extent. Unless it was fake to move the market, successful play if so!
The thing is there can be large shifts in voting patterns between a rather thin semi final, which us quite niche. And then the big event with more voting and a larger audience. Some acts in the past have done really well in the semi and flopped to nothing in the final. It won't necessarily correlate, even if they are valid numbers. |
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Something does not add up
Croatia 1.8 to win Israel 4.6 to win Israel 1.8 to win tele votes Croatia 2.8 to win tele votes Where is this confidence that the juries will give many more votes to Croatia over Israel ? You could argue they are similar to Cha Cha and Unicorn which were pretty level with the jurors |
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I agree, pretty difficult to envisage Croatia winning without topping the televote. Possible of course but their ace card is the public.
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