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Lifter
04 Mar 24 22:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 19 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 9,222 | Blogger: Lifter's blog
About time there was a thread for the 2nd best specials market
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Report edy May 11, 2024 11:41 PM BST
I'm relatively positive it was more the UK wanting to host instead of the EBU desperately looking to the UK because they couldn't find any other takers.
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:41 PM BST
Big total score for Ukraine!
Report timbuctooth May 11, 2024 11:41 PM BST
satanists and grinderists, you can PHUCK OFF!!!
Report edy May 11, 2024 11:42 PM BST
Let us please not be swearing satanists.
Report Henry VIII May 11, 2024 11:44 PM BST
switz took so long to drop in price after croatia's pb was announced. crazy
Report Henry VIII May 11, 2024 11:45 PM BST
pv
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:45 PM BST
26
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:45 PM BST
market should have no offers at this point
Report Cider May 11, 2024 11:46 PM BST
tremendous CoolCool
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:46 PM BST
NEMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMO !!!
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:47 PM BST
surprising that no-one writes a bot that can calculate the score for the final country after all this years. There would be free money for two minutes or so as a reward.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 11, 2024 11:47 PM BST
Well done nemo.

Hope everybody on here won something
Report Cider May 11, 2024 11:47 PM BST
Croatia topped the televote. just lol
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:47 PM BST
So pleased for Nemo and for France and Ukraine (huge televotes !)

£6k Finland 1.5 top 10 backer got scuppered !
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:48 PM BST
Ukraine Top 3 !!! LoveLoveLoveLove
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 11, 2024 11:48 PM BST
Add them up on a calculator Samuel.
Report edy May 11, 2024 11:49 PM BST
Germany gave Israel 12 points
Report edy May 11, 2024 11:49 PM BST
Croatia, Ukraine, Switzerland, France, Greece, Armenia, Italy, Lituania, Ireland followed in that order.
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:49 PM BST
there's not enough time and room for errors. Needs to be done in a advice, then you just type in the points score by score to have the remaining score left when there's one country to go.
Report Cider May 11, 2024 11:50 PM BST
Whoever moved the market from 1.7 Switz to 3, when they had such a lead has done the lot.
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:51 PM BST
Swiss once again victorious on the world stage for the first time since Roger Federer won his final Slams.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 11, 2024 11:51 PM BST
2 calculators? , I normally do it, but didn't this year

Only one calculator.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:51 PM BST

May 11, 2024 -- 11:50PM, Cider wrote:


Whoever moved the market from 1.7 Switz to 3, when they had such a lead has done the lot.


That looked a smart move to take on Switzerland odds on imho. I am very pleased for Nemo though

Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:51 PM BST
Israel 5th !
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:53 PM BST
If France and Switzerland had split the jury vote as mooted by many, France would have landed at 25s !
Report Cider May 11, 2024 11:55 PM BST
That looked a smart move to take on Switzerland odds on imho. I am very pleased for Nemo though


They were playing as if Nemo was another jury baiter that would flop with the pv. That clearly wasn't likely to be the case imho.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 11, 2024 11:55 PM BST
Roll on eurovision 69....
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:56 PM BST
I think Israel beating Swiss so handily in those Swedish/Italian polls messed with people's heads regarding Swiss's popularity with the viewers.
Report Cider May 11, 2024 11:58 PM BST
Such big money moving the market I was doubting myself.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 11, 2024 11:58 PM BST
I fancied Croatia to get 146 points extra than Switzerland in the tele vote which was required. That's not because I thought Switzerland was mid. I thought it was up there with Loreen last year. I just thought Croatia were going to Cha Cha it and get more. Ukraine and Israel both got huge scores and scuppered it. I am not saying that laying Switzerland 3.0 was good, but 1.7 to be within 145 points of Croatia in the televote a fair lay imho !
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 11, 2024 11:59 PM BST

May 11, 2024 -- 11:58PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


I fancied Croatia to get 146 points extra than Switzerland in the tele vote which was required. That's not because I thought Switzerland was mid. I thought it was up there with Loreen last year. I just thought Croatia were going to Cha Cha it and get more. Ukraine and Israel both got huge scores and scuppered it. I am not saying that laying Switzerland 3.0 was good, but 1.7 to be within 145 points of Croatia in the televote a fair lay imho !


agreed.

Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:00 AM BST

May 11, 2024 -- 11:47PM, Cider wrote:


Croatia topped the televote. just lol


That was nerve wrecking ! When Israel got 323, it was looking close, then Ukraine getting 307 to eat into the remaining votes was even more nerve wrecking ! 337 in the end ! 14 in it

Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:01 AM BST
Croatia wasn't that much of a standout though. Like I said ir, no Rybak. it was possible but the odds were right and then someone flipped them.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:02 AM BST
I think most people were thinking Croatia 350, Switzerland 200. For me it was neck and neck but gut said Croatia gun to head. So 1.7 out to 3.0 was crazy confidence, agreed, but I think taking on 1.7 was a fair move. I backed Croatia 2.5+ at that stage and layed odds on as was happy to get out at fair prices. I should have waited a bit longer though
Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:03 AM BST
I got lucky on the televote as ended up with Isr red as was continually biting into Croatia. And full loss on Ukr.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:04 AM BST
Switzerland 5th in televotes, is that the 1st time 5th place has won overall ?
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:04 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:03AM, Cider wrote:


I got lucky on the televote as ended up with Isr red as was continually biting into Croatia. And full loss on Ukr.


Was a great result for me too. If Ukraine had a good slot I think I would have copped the jackpot on them

Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:07 AM BST
Had huge greens on France and Ukraine, if France had won the juries which they were 33% likely to going on odds, or Ukraine had a better slot, it could have been a real great story ! Both in the top 4 is a great result though
Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:07 AM BST
televote was unique wasn't it with essentially two political choices up there, so in the genuine vote for your fav on the night he was 3rd. and monstered the juries so fair enough winner.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:09 AM BST
If France had got 271 tele votes we would have had a draw !
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:09 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:04AM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


Switzerland 5th in televotes, is that the 1st time 5th place has won overall ?


yes. normally this would spur a big debate on how this is not fair from a democracy point of view, but this year maybe people will be happy with Israel not winning and having the jury protect from such a thing happening.

Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:09 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:07AM, Cider wrote:


televote was unique wasn't it with essentially two political choices up there, so in the genuine vote for your fav on the night he was 3rd. and monstered the juries so fair enough winner.


He was brilliant and massively deserving winner for sure. Really pleased for him

Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:11 AM BST
Wish I could look at the odds again but they settle so quickly. Anyone know what price Norway were last place? I got quite a bit matched at short prices on UK
Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:16 AM BST
coming into the event in the last week is so much better than wasting three months analysing each little minutia in the never ending build up.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:17 AM BST

May 10, 2024 -- 1:21PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


I thought the top 4 would be between Croatia, France, Switzerland and Ukraine. With the factors of something going on with Israel and Ukraine's slot in 2 I am less confident.


Happy

Report ambush May 12, 2024 12:20 AM BST
i  laid norway at 50s.to be last, uk went short
Report Escapee May 12, 2024 12:21 AM BST

Wish I could look at the odds again but they settle so quickly. Anyone know what price Norway were last place? I got quite a bit matched at short prices on UK


I think there was £5 available at 21 near the end of the judge vote reveal when UK were around 2.2

(I clicked for it and then decided nah Cry)

Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:22 AM BST
Didn't see Norway odds. I thought they were awful, but would have enough friends to not finish last, but things have changed with that.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:23 AM BST
be fascinating to hear the rationale behind not awarding Croatia any points at all from the juries that did that ....
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:24 AM BST
1.32            £151.50
1.33            £10.00
1.35    £0.41        £159.29
1.36            £187.97
1.37            £68.73
1.38            £694.31
1.39            £1,657.56
1.4    £0.51        £447.72
1.41            £370.62
1.42            £953.80
1.43            £567.54
1.44            £439.15
1.45        £1,123.68    £1,558.54
1.46            £1,708.04
1.47            £473.98
1.48            £667.43
1.49            £634.46
1.5            £2,794.93
1.51            £1,593.06
1.52            £248.05

Netherlands SF 2 fyi against Switzerland and Israel
Report ambush May 12, 2024 12:30 AM BST
anyone know tje result of the 2 semi finals. wonder were netherlands disqualified from the compettition or just the final . thanks in advance.
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:31 AM BST
will be interesting to see viewership numbers for ESC this year. Lots of people saying they were gonna boycott, but I feel those are the same type of people who say they will never post on the forum again. It sure got a lot of attention thanks to Israel's participation, and I expect numbers to be up.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:31 AM BST

May 11, 2024 -- 8:34PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


Think juries will have put paid to Israel's chances, even if she gets mid 300s. Just like they did Grande Amoure Italy and Cha Cha Finland. So could be dead water no matter what !


She got 323 and landed 5th. Jurors did their job it seems !

Report Henry VIII May 12, 2024 12:31 AM BST
Saved by a lot of green on Israel to lay, got Swiz to 2nd green. But lessons to be learnt.

40% Israel with 2nd on 8%, never happened before, but hindsight is a great thing. Italy "votes leak" and Sweden - was that the dodgy campaign?
Report edy May 12, 2024 12:31 AM BST
Netherlands qualified successfully in the semifinal, but afterwards an incident happened that led to their disqualification from the final.
Report Henry VIII May 12, 2024 12:33 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:31AM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


May 11, 2024 --  8:34PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:Think juries will have put paid to Israel's chances, even if she gets mid 300s. Just like they did Grande Amoure Italy and Cha Cha Finland. So could be dead water no matter what !She got 323 and landed 5th. Jurors did their job it seems !


OK, then those leaks were genuine. Yes total jury instructions, I really didn't think they had the nerve. Israel were certainly robbed.

Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:35 AM BST
Important info to remember for next year is early starts are no disadvantage with the new rules. Both Ukraine and Israel with big televote scores.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:36 AM BST
be fascinating to hear the rationale behind not awarding Croatia any points at all from the juries that did that ....

similar to Finland last year.  whole of Europe says it's the best song in the competition, few of the juries think it's not worthy of even 1 point ....

Norwegian public gave Croatia 12 points, Norwegian jury gave it nothing.  are they watching the same thing ??
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:38 AM BST
Think I said it last year 50/50 is too much power for the juries. 70 tele/30 juries or something like that would be more fair. If you just do televotes it would be much less exciting.
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:38 AM BST
and more predictable.
Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:38 AM BST
Likely jurors protecting themselves from the online mob, rather than ebu direction. The toys are already out of the pram re Israel winning the UK pv.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:39 AM BST
Belgian, Spanish and San Marino public all gave Croatia 8.

all three juries gave it nothing ??
Report Escapee May 12, 2024 12:40 AM BST
2nd post on this thread, well played


Lifter 08 Mar 24 16:02

I've been backing Switzerland from 24s, although my average is only at 13.91 now.

Was hoping I could keep quietly backing it before a price dump, but cat is out the bag now at 8/1.

"The Code" is one of the only songs this year that should do well with both juries and the televote. However, I have to say this is one of the most competitive editions ever


Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:40 AM BST
307 Ukraine, 323 Israel, 337 Croatia in televotes. Can't remember it like this ! Israel would have been the wrong winners as these votes were politically motivated !
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:41 AM BST
Juries in general like nice ballads, great singing voices, that type of thing. Not gimmicky stuff like Croatia or Holland. With no Israel Palestine war juries would vote Israel top 3 imo, but then it would have likely not done as well with the viewers due to less hype and "support Israel" stuff.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:42 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:38AM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


Think I said it last year 50/50 is too much power for the juries. 70 tele/30 juries or something like that would be more fair. If you just do televotes it would be much less exciting.


Yeah 5th place tele votes winning is crazy imho !

Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:44 AM BST
the Belgian jury gave 6 to United Kingdom and zero to Croatia

surely you have to justify that ??

it's just nonsense
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:45 AM BST
can justify it by saying they're gay
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:45 AM BST
Belgian jury gave UK 6 more points than the whole of the European and Worldwide public gave it LaughLaughLaugh
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:46 AM BST
ABBA didn't get points from UK, I don't think Loreen did either. Or they got very low scores.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:46 AM BST
Definitely some rigging. Croatia gave Switzerland 0 points in the jury LaughLaughLaugh
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 12:47 AM BST
Tactical jury voting Plain
Report Cider May 12, 2024 12:48 AM BST
I'm a big boy now, I'm going away and I sold my cow. Rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi rim-tim-tagi-digi, digi-digi-digi-digi gonna miss you all, but mostly the cat.

not exactly jury gravy
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 12:49 AM BST
Belgian jury - UK 6 Croatia 0
Public Vote - UK 0 Croatia 337

ffs LaughLaugh
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 12:53 AM BST
First SF: Croatia, Ukraine, Ireland
Second SF: Israel, Netherlands, Armenia, SWITZERLAND 4TH !
Report Henry VIII May 12, 2024 1:00 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:48AM, Cider wrote:


I'm a big boy now, I'm going away and I sold my cow. Rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi rim-tim-tagi-digi, rim-tim-tagi-digi rim-tim-tagi-digi, digi-digi-digi-digi gonna miss you all, but mostly the cat.not exactly jury gravy


Juries were told who to vote for tonight.

2018 Most jury votes in SF and 3rd most in F:

Look at me, I'm a beautiful creature
I don't care about your "modern time preachers"
Welcome boys, too much noise, I will teach ya
Pam pam pa hoo, turram pam pa hoo
Hey, I think you forgot how to play
My teddy bear's running away
The Barbie got something to say, hey, hey, hey
Hey! My "Simon says" leave me alone
I'm taking my Pikachu home
You're stupid just like your smartphone

Wonder Woman don't you ever forget
You're divine and he's about to regret
He's a bucka-mhm-buckbuckbuck-mhm boy
Bucka-mhm-buckbuckbuck
I'm not your bucka-mhm-buck-mhm-buck-mhm

Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 1:01 AM BST
If French guy does a better performance before the jury, does it take enough jury points from Switzerland for Croatia to win the thing?
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 1:04 AM BST
silly lyrics from Netta but it has a message juries will approve of. Women empowerment.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 1:05 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 1:01AM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


If French guy does a better performance before the jury, does it take enough jury points from Switzerland for Croatia to win the thing?


Very much so !

Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 1:06 AM BST
a bit surprising you can sing about Pikachu and Barbie but not have a Windows logo on your shirt or mention Coca Cola in the song title.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 1:07 AM BST
the french guy fkd up his jury performance.  these things happen, he blew it. 

so can someone explain how he still gets 12 points from Armenia, Iceland, Belgium (nothing for Croatia) and Slovenia ??
Report Cider May 12, 2024 1:08 AM BST
It's all part of the mix. I've always come from the perspective of we bet on what will happen, and not what should happen. In the end it did not impact me but I didn't expect Israel to be so transparently punished by the juries as they turned out to be. That's my fault. They don't act in a vacuum do they and will be influenced by external factors, but I do believe it was most likely self preservation.

One note is that the audience treatment of the ebu chap must have been what Eden was forced to perform through. So much resilience as it didn't show.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 1:10 AM BST
does the performance not mean anything ? 

he completely blew that but i saw him singing down the boozer last Tuesday and he's actually not bad.  so just give him 12.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 1:11 AM BST
Switzerland 132 4th in SF isn't as bad as it sounds. 62 behind Israel 194 but were favs for the jury. Makes the 3.3 Israel and 7.0 Israel at that time very strange indeed ! Netherlands had 182, so only 12 behind. Makes the lump on Israel even stranger outright and in the televotes. Scrapping past Netherlands in semi final with half the competition voting is not strong evidence to lump heavy odds on, especially with a worse draw later on !
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 12, 2024 1:13 AM BST
suggest market had no insight to SF results and were mainly going on the Italian tv leak?
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 1:14 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 1:08AM, Cider wrote:


It's all part of the mix. I've always come from the perspective of we bet on what will happen, and not what should happen. In the end it did not impact me but I didn't expect Israel to be so transparently punished by the juries as they turned out to be. That's my fault. They don't act in a vacuum do they and will be influenced by external factors, but I do believe it was most likely self preservation. One note is that the audience treatment of the ebu chap must have been what Eden was forced to perform through. So much resilience as it didn't show.


she was never getting more than 150 which was still nowhere near enough to win. going off eurojury she got what was expected too.

Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 1:15 AM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 1:13AM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


suggest market had no insight to SF results and were mainly going on the Italian tv leak?


Switzerland were smashed on earlier this morning. Someone with the jury votes had their fill for sure imho

Report Cider May 12, 2024 1:17 AM BST
i suspect that was due to the audience poll that yhtl linked.
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 1:19 AM BST
About £20k was matched Switzerland this morning. Definitely someone who knew Switzerland had 155 lead on Croatia after the jury and liked the bet imho ! The audience poll is just an echo chamber of super fans, it's pretty pointless
Report Cider May 12, 2024 1:19 AM BST
AR as I stated I don't follow the build up at all any more, but it had a lot going for it jury wise if the politics was stripped out.
Report hulk23 May 12, 2024 1:33 AM BST
something not quite right about the juries scores in the Eurovision Song Contest not being based on the artists performance in the Eurovision Song Contest.

can see how that might confuse some people.
Report Lifter May 12, 2024 1:43 PM BST

May 12, 2024 -- 12:40AM, Escapee wrote:


2nd post on this thread, well playedLifter 08 Mar 24 16:02I've been backing Switzerland from 24s, although my average is only at 13.91 now.Was hoping I could keep quietly backing it before a price dump, but cat is out the bag now at 8/1."The Code" is one of the only songs this year that should do well with both juries and the televote. However, I have to say this is one of the most competitive editions ever


Cheers. It really stood out as the class horse of the race.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 12, 2024 2:03 PM BST
Yep well done.

All of the plots and counter plots seem to have
cancelled each other out, dunno if it was by hook or
by crook, but result is pretty much as it should have been.
Report Cider May 12, 2024 2:50 PM BST
Was a v good shout, nice one Lifter.

Great fun last night, first time I think I've ever had a clean sweep on EV markets I played in. Probably helps that traditional firms are now off the table for me!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 12, 2024 2:53 PM BST
Very well done cider.
Report timbuctooth May 12, 2024 3:36 PM BST
We knew the f1x was in, confirmed when Israel were given the 6 slot. What we didn't know then, though, was that they had just ROMPED not only their own semi, (HAMMERING the eventual winners into 4th place!), but also STUFFED the winner of the other semi! Throughout the years, the main benefit of CRUSHING both semis has been a prime draw for the final; why did that not happen this year, please? SCANDALOUS!!!

To give 190-odd fully paid-up lackeys, (each of whom are right-on luvvie lefties, terrified of cancellation) the power and instructions to deny 750 MILLION Europeans their rightful winner was also SCANDALOUS!!! All part of the evil globalists' ridding us of democracy and FREEDOM!!!





os. Before my stalkers point out that Israel came second in the final pv, the fully deserved, earned and justified pimp slot would have seen them ROMP it
Report timbuctooth May 12, 2024 3:37 PM BST
Oh yes, and well done all winners!
Report Angela Rebecchi May 12, 2024 5:56 PM BST
Israel got 50% more than Switzerland in the semi final and final. In a normal year Israel would have been fodder with top 10 chances. It's victory charge and chances this year pivoted on a very motivated political vote which it still get (it was never going to get a Ukraine 2022 one as that was a Europe wide consensus). They didn't deserve a top 5 and the right outcome was ascertained. I think it's sad the juries didn't mark them objectively though. The whole point of the juries is to be objective. We saw last year with Loreen though, they have their favourites. This year they also gave France the same as Croatia, and just over half of Switzerland. Juries don't seem to like entries which are pure vocal talent as France deserved the same as Switzerland, or close to, and to be a distance ahead of Croatia.
Report Escapee May 12, 2024 9:01 PM BST
Same old fruitcakes moaning "It's a f1x" when they don't win
Report San Quentin June 2, 2024 6:17 PM BST
Insieme:United Europe
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