We finally have Russia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60QdHa4Pkhs&feature=player_embedded

Interesting points Saslokk.  The point about Armenia only having one good minute is sound - like San Marino last year and Serbia in 2012.  Serbia did well, but didn't win, despite having a hefty block of support from the former Yugoslav countries. 

Hoping Armenia is another France 11 - been boring the last two years having runaway faves who then coast to victory.  Gone red on this - simply can't have a favourite that short in a large field....although the last two years say that you can. 

The heavy fave has won 3 of the last 5 years and 2nd fave won on one of the other two.

To me the pure best song is Hungary and that's my biggest green, although my original gut feeling is that the subject matter is not suited to winning.  Then again, last year's song was about breaking up and fighting so I guess a good song and tune can resonate regardless of the subject matter.  Also liking Sweden the more I hear it. 

And one other thing I've learnt, Greece has uncanny knack of producing songs that get more catchy the more you listen to them - thought last years' would bomb but by the tiem May came round I, and many others, were hooked and it finished comfortable Top Ten.  Unlikely to win but certainly I'll be looking to back it in other markets.

San Marino was the first country to vote last year and their voting consisted of 100% jury and no pv and they were the only country that didn't award Denmark any points and the price on Denmark drifted out to nearly 3 just after San Marino voting before shortening again when Denmark started receiving votes. Who knows the powers that be may look at the semi final results and decide the country voting order so that the winner doesn't receive any points at the start or that they start with receiving small votes so as to play neck and neck with different countries leading the scoreboard to keep the suspense. Who knows if the powers that be will arrange for the same to happen this year with the way the votes are revealed.

They have this algorithm they have used for the last couple of years, and will no doubt use again this year, which is intended to conceal the winner for as long as possible, & try and maintain close scoring for as long as possible.

Trouble with this system is, it produces a country announcement order based only on the jury voting on the Friday night, so it isn't accurate because the televote cannot be factored in.

In 2011, it was trying to conceal Italy (winner of the jury vote) but this proved a red herring because Italy was well down on the televote, and Azerbaijan had already pulled clear.

A few more inputs from me, having giving it a good thought after listening to the songs and trying to make some conclusions:

Armenia - without a doubt the correct fav, but not anyone can convince me this song has around 50% chance to song, despite the obvious weak field in general. For me, it is miles beyond Denmark 2013 and Sweden 2012 in terms of "winning quality", and those songs never was this low, until the day before the final. So....either the "market" has become a lot better at predicting things, or this is just a desperate attempt from one of the key-traders to establish a low odds, for a reason only he/she knows, and everyone else follows suit, because it is so hard to find the real key contenders.
If you ask me, I settle for a mix of both things.

The more and more I think of things, I consider Belgium the biggest threat. I already gave a reason for it previously but i will go a bit more in-depth now.

For me, it's a quality song. Yes, he is fat and yes his moustache ain't pretty. But he comes across as 100% genuine and has the voice of the competition. I can not see who will score higher across Europe jury-wise than him, I just cant.
Historically Belgium has never done well, for the reason more than anything they lack enough neighbors and has chosen songs that does not fit the "winning formula".

Some say that singing about your mum ain't good and pretty stupid. I agree to disagree 100%. Everyone loves their mother, the end. And with his incredible voice I am more and more positive for the scenario that he generally will score at least decent from the tele-voting.
Now, if I am correct in these two things, we might very very well be looking at the winner in 2014.

Odds have gone up lately, but I think it will go down soon again and absolutely nothing can convince me this gent does not have 4-5% chance to win this year.

/Saslokk

If only.  I'd have a lot more stake money if that were the case!!

semi-final running orders:
.
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=99363&_t=running_order_for_eurovision_semi-finals_decided

honestcl - Dont't be too worried, it's only me ;)

Bit about the draws for the semi's : Armenia first out, won't matter obviously....they want Belgium to do recently well and obviously Hungary. 2nd semi pretty poor but tough on Malta to say the very least.

wow wow Portugal sux bigtime...gotta be a fav for last place shirley.

ok, seen the lot...if your fancy ain't in this Magnificent Seven...forget it.
alfabagetabel orda...

1.armenia.
2.belarus.
3.finland.
4.greece.
5.italy.
6.spain.
7.sweden.

there are some real ear bleeders this year...i'm still wiping the blood from my neck...i think the lard*rse from belgium did the most damage, made me vomit too so he did.

Cough cough Hungary missing cough from list cough

Belarus?   Seriously?

Agree with most of the others though

oh and Belarus ?
i chose between Belarus & Ukraine...both entertaining and went with Belarus for the fun & originality content...Ukraine is a typical eurovision cheesey entry which is a surprise following on from some really top class entries in recent years.

One more odds that sticks out to me is:

Germany 180,00

This odds could be the most value out there in my opinion. Here are the reasoning behind it.

The song is not bad, it's not bad at all. It might not be everyone's favorite but this kind of music is well liked by many people. You can never underestimate someone who basically came from nowhere to win the German final, that goes to show there is something extremely likable about this song and performance.
It should be well liked by jury's and I can't see no reason why it should not do well among telly-voters too. This for the western part of Europe.

So, how about Eastern Europe? Since the singer got a Polish mother and a Ukraine father, you can count on big points from those nations. There is nothing to suggest that the Polish/Ukraine background would harm for the rest of the former Soviet states either. Germany is a well-liked country by pretty much everyone. You can't compare this with the winning song a few years ago they had, but you can take notice that Germany can win from only one performance and score high points across the board.

I have no clue who wants to lay 180 and more on Germany, but I am glad i am on the backing side here. The odds is simply too high, and I expect Germany to come down to close to 100, where it should be for now, very soon. In my opinion, Germany has more than 1% of winning in this field, I would even give it 2% chance without hesitation.

Recap:
Jury-friendly
Likely to do decent to well from telly-voting
Polish-Ukraine background that for sure will boost it's chances in Eastern Europe
Will for sure score well with Western Europe.

I am sure one can find negatives about everything, but at 180/1 and down quiet a bit, we have got enough value to perhaps score a giant payout in 6 weeks time.

/Saslokk

The fact that Germany are both my guilty pleasure (mainly because of the thought of a foursome with them) and my biggest green means they have no chance. But they are my biggest green for the same reasons you give.

/Georgebailey

Listened to them all for the first time today....I now have a cake to bake (cheesecake) for my Mother to celebrate her moustache.

/hemsby

^^^ Gemany, that is.

Also have a huge green on Germany, comes after Italy. So seems it us 3 who has bought and that's it basically

Now, let's go back to Armenia again.

I am shocked to see odds to be sold UNDER 2,00. How is that possible? It makes no sense. All bookies has 2,00 or around, and the odds can't drift much lower now. It only can go up from here. As I have said before, none has been a bigger favorite than Armenia ever, in the history of the competition. It is way bigger fav than Alexander Rybak (landslide victory and easy to see coming) and Loreen (same as Rybak, it was really none there to compete with it, and a rare standout song). Last year, Emmelie De Forest was also pretty easy to see winning, it had all the ingredients a song has to have to win this competition.

Armenia has one good minute. A really good minute, but it still is nothing even remotely close to the big fav's I have been mentioning. The song is good, no doubt about that. And though I have a feeling the stage setting will do the song a big favor, we still have not seen that, have we?
It also competes with 10-15 other slow songs.

Armenia can win, but I was not even remotely tempted when odds was still around 3, so it goes without saying how much I think "the market" is off with this one. Obviosuly an easy lay, for all the reasons. And if one feels Armenia will win on the day of the final, I am pretty much sure the price will not be lower than 2,40 anyway. How could it? It's not Beatles, It's not even Michael Bolton in his prime.
It's a decent song that for all we know, Armenia could have made it the "hype" it is on youtube.

Only time will tell as always, but this just can not be trading below 2,00 one more day.

Not got involved yet, might have a little punt on Germany

  /lookingon

My initial thoughts
Gemany - Distinctly average mid tempo female number 5/10

/figgy

(It's no Lithuania)

so Armenia is a very hot fav, reasons for it being so are valid to a point...1. a good song, not great but good, i believe there are better songs 2.a massively appealing performer to both females and gay men 3.when did an eastern european country last win? the powers that be will want to address the western dominance.4. the 2nd fav Sweden won in 2012, so soon back to Sweden?
I personally think the Swedish song is far superior to Armenia's...evens to 7/1 is a big gap, if Loreen had not won i think we would be looking at Sweden as the ev money chance myself.
The powers that be may have already decided that Armenia will win, it seems that way to me looking at the odds...you can't tell me and i presume many on here that Armenia @ ev is that much better than some others...obviously all this is just conjecture on my part but for Armenia to be this short tells me there is more on board Armenia's bandwagon than a sexy singer with a good song.