Specials
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** The Official Eurovision 2014 Thread **
** The Official Eurovision 2014 Thread **
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Check that old SMS and do the maths
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I had my biggest loss on any show ever last year, so not a master. 3 good years before that though and looking ok this year with Belgium & Armenia my biggest greens
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I'm not convinced by Sweden at all. A very average song. Red for me
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Armenia a lay for me....flash but ultimately empty video and the obligatory drums don't save it.
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In any other year Sweden run of the mill but I keep singing it and its a weak year...that said I kept singing Where is Mr God a few years back
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Figgy seems not to agree with your SMS George. Post it here and we can analyse it for you.
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It lacks instant appeal. It only won because of who sang it
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Here it is Henry...wish I had let it ride
 From George Bailey on Mar 10, 10:54PM: Don't be red on sweden. in melodifestivalen in 2010 "this is my life" got an average of 4.66 of the international juries votes. It never made final. In 2011 Popular got an average 7.36 jury scores and 23.7% of PV. It came 3rd in the final. Loreen averaged 10.36 tonight and 32.7% of the PV. And she had stiff competition in Amazing who got the pimp spot. I'm thinking she could be another Rybak from what I have seen of the others so far this year. I have a 4400 green on her. haven't the balls to let it ride completely. |
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I've possibly missed a couple but nearly there I think
Italy - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mtgyseWeaQ Belarus - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXYkGpaiKcs Malta - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqP65vGsmk0 Macedonia - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grZ7vPQ_y8M Sweden - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEUd1tyNw6Q UK - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFqYbibLh8k Slovenia - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqZCwYSDLJo Denmark - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRHKkYrXSjM Latvia - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tON71QIre7U Ireland - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZiF9WDXkRM Romania - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0hzBHG2jc0 Estonia - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q70i2fMEORs Finland - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAdz2HKz1PA Iceland - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSXRZOfDLog Hungary - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b2GYRRbv50 Israel - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt5mrygRG6U Poland - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr1DSgjhRqE Spain - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHjMlA8QVrM France - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYBYiN5EpdY Lithuania - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuc801IvJqA Switzerland - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwTAaF1rFNg Georgia - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdgGlv4eTf8 Azer - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipQswujA5gw Germany - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4jRCm31E0g Netherlands - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDMcWNOutUY Norway - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYAfB1P28ec Moldova - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbL5Mz75APc Portugal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbCe1916IJw Belgium - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1A62W0aQ9o Albania (new version) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAdz2HKz1PA Ukraine (new version) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRQjUY3cf48 |
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The favourite being one
 Armenia - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChkJpnOgIwQ |
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Azer is rather good. Not sure why it's drifted. On here anyway. It's been cut on the HS
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Wrong link for Albania too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4ABpIspdic |
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Good methodology George. Sanna's figures are 8.18 and 25.8% so I agree she should do well.
Bear in mind unquantifiable factors which helped her in MF but won't make any difference in ESC: it was her 7th attempt at MF in 13 years; in 2008 she won the public vote (132 points to 110) but was denied victory by the juries. So there was a lot of goodwill for her this year. |
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Ukraine surprises me. I like it and at the prices it’s been made it big green. But it gets 459 youtube thumbs up to 736 thumbs down. I know youtube thumbs aren’t the best of metrics but that’s extreme. It’s rare a song does so badly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oBCsNoloy4 They produced a slower simpler version without the colourful lights and dancers. I think it has a weaker chance. It doesn’t have the same impact imo, and maybe her voice is too squeaky to rely on it alone. However that maybe a minority view as it does much better on the thumb ratio. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRQjUY3cf48 |
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Ukraine is being revamped again - revamped revamp appearing later today allegedly.
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Sweden is Eurovision 10 years ago. A lay for top 10 for me.
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23 slot for Denmark in final
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Emmelie de Forest, the winner of last year’s Eurovision Song Contest predicts that Norway will win in May with the song Silent storm by Carl Espen. http://esctoday.com/78725/denmark-de-forest-predicts-norwegian-victory-may/
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Hmm that was “lucky”.
JR do you remember when someone was helped to pick the right envelope? I think it was Lena (Norway host, Swedish head of ESC). |
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^ to Danish slot
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I've seen it a couple of times, henry. When they used to have wildcard among the Big 5, I felt certain they fixed it for Spain to win the wildcard during the draw when Pastora Soler had that powerful ballad of hers, which finished 10th in the end. Denmark's final draw last year looked suspicious during press conference - 1st half or 2nd half. It looked blatantly set up for the Danes to pull out 2nd half draw.
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Before last year they picked to choose the final draw placings in the same order of being picked out in the envelope order to enter the final. So if you were picked first to enter the final then you were to pick first for the final placing order. Last year they changed it as Denmark wasn't the first country picked to enter the final but they sure were picked first to choose their placing in the final. Can we say fix that they were chosen to pick first?
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OK so Pastora not Lena. I guess the Scandi's think - well the eastern countries are all voting for each other and buying votes so we need to help the west a bit.
Ola must be sick of all the jury buying (but by saying he's not going to punish broadcasters he is entrenching the problem). |
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am I the only geezer on AzzyBazzy?
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FLL likes it.
And that's it. |
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That's all you need Kenny
It has a touch of class about it and she has a great voice |
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As for the draw. The Danish draw looked iffy last year. The camera cut away when she was picking. The only one that happened with
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True but they should have told the writers to come up with something like this to utilise her personality.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgUsI6CrW7I |
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Too jolly for me.
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Yes but you have to try to think like a normal person. I know it's hard
(Hard for most of us probably). |
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The new Ukraine - an improvement for sure:
. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdAf2EjhRiE |
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The shorter version.....minus the Crimea
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I like the new Ukraine version best too. 3rd time lucky. I hope they stick with it.
I'm wondering though if the Ukraine has lost its Russian diaspora votes? 5 of the top 6 ESC vote donor countries to the Ukraine are Russian diaspora countries. Being in this block is why it's been so strong. (The exception in the 6 is the Czech Republic. That's the third biggest donor because Ukrainians make up the biggest foreign group of expats in Czech). |
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Bad political move to give them no votes imo. For my book I hope Putin is putting out 12 points instructions.....but I doubt it.
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We now have Austria: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToqNa0rqUtY&feature=player_embedded
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Quite a looker
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Not a bad song. Bit of a Bond theme sound about it
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Putin will be voting for it
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George Bailey
"that said I kept singing Where is Mr God a few years back" ___________ Nowt wrong with that George - still listen to that one on the 2010 ESC CD fairly regularly. "I asked my Uncle Joe, but he can't speak" "Only Mr God knows why" How could anyone NOT like a song with these lyrics? :-) |
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Got a few mins to spare, so my thoughts regarding the most likely to win.
Armenia (2,66) - Yes, it has a chance. And yes, since the competition is so weak, it has to be the fav. However....Imo the price is shocking low. It is not the song of the decade, it has one good minute in it, but of course the lack of competition means it will get some points from Western Europe and probably score big with Former USSR. However again, this is not a given winner, not even close to it. But I don't predict the price to go up a lot, since the market always needs a fav (who can not remember 2011 when France just got bigger and bigger only to burst in the Final, leaving a lot of people in the red). Comparison though is not totally legite, Armenia is a solid pick, but not to these prices. Sweden (7,80) - Imo, the best voice of the competition, and she is made for TV. Super popular in Sweden, with a song that fits the 2005 winning formula in ESC. In 2014? I'm not convinced, it competes with Norway for Scandinavian votes, it has a lot of other slower songs to compete with generally and I don't think this will score big in Eastern Europe. Having said that, you can't totally rule it out and with a perfect late draq in the final it will become a threat. Norway (8,00) - Was the fav for a week or two, and that just goes to show the market are desperate to find a fav. A good song, should score high with juries around but televote? Don't think it will rank high there, but it will do decent. This song MUST have a pimp draw because if it starts early on, it will be forgotten. Hungary (14,00) - Not a bad song, but exactly when did Hungary do good in Eurovision and when did this kind of song ever do good in Eurovision? A big NO for me. Denmark (17,00) - Ireland was the last country some 25 y ago to win twice in a row. It does not happen anymore. The Bruno Mars of Copenhagen will score decent, but to win? NO Belgium (20,00) - The one slow song that is the most dangerous one to challenge for the Top Spot. At least that is my view. Jury votes should be huge, and if he gets a good draw in the final, we all better watch out.....concerns? There are always concerns. Belgium does not have a lot of allies and that is never a good thing. But to me, this is definitely in with a shot. Should be Western Europe's Top Scorer. Ukraine (21,00) - I like this. Is it cheesy and cheap? It sure is. But it also sticks straight away and if the current political situation does not change in 2 months, this will be a contender for me. United Kingdom (23,00) - No, sorry England, it will not happen this year either. Azerbaijan (28,00) - If they can stage it as good as last year, not ruled out. Otherwise, this won't be the year that the Land Of Fire brings back the Eurovision crown to Baku. Russia (36,00) - I'm afraid the politics has ruled them out. But the song is still not out and I have a feeling the song will be a good one. But at the moment, obviously a big no. Italy (65,00) - My main pick for the Eurovision glory. But that is another thread the reasoning behind that. That was my Five Cents guys. Good Luck with the trading. /Saslokk |