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**week seven bottom two thread**
**week seven bottom two thread**
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rylan is not B2 = free bet on baloney being B2.........win (£569 - commission = £540 ish) - lost £569 backing rylan for elim = -£29 ish (first mistakes is not including commission). If baloney not in B2 then you lose £191 + £29ish = £220 ish. No free bet. Baloney in B2 then £521 ish (again commission) - £29 ish = £492 ish profit.
rylan is B2 against baloney = a free bet on baloney being saved.......lose £222 + £521 ish = £299 ish. - £569 = -£ 270. No free bet. However if rylan elim then you get £395 ish (again commission) + £299 = £694 ish profit. (best result) rylan is B2 against any other = the risk part of the bet..............lose £222 + lose £191 + lose £569 = -£982. (worst result). If rylan elim then lose £222 + lose £191 + £395ish = -£18 ish. my feeling is this gives me low risk bet. Potential loss of £982 against best profit of £694 = not for me i'm afraid. |
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PMbets - and your sources are?
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Just a couple of points...
If the Star info is accurate then Maloney is further ahead than Devlin ever was. For 3 weeks Robinson, Little Mix and Collins were within 2% of her and then Amelia Lilly getting a massive ramp finally beat her and that slowed her down considerably. |
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PMbets - and your sources are?
The voices in his deluded little mind! |
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in what mostly comes down to a mix of popularity contest and singing contest rylan did himself massive favours last night with his banter with Gary, the V.T it was part of the plan of course.
I've laid a lot of Rylan for B2 Baloney totaly played to his strenghts last night to, has never been B2 UJ great song for them plus a bounce, I don't think it's enough this week James he sang great, but no wow factor and not typical saterday night xfactor fodder Ella dreadful song choice, but good effort should be safe but certinly not out of B2 contention Jahmene going down hill but take him to be as safe as houses most of my bets are centered around rylan being out of the B2 and UJ going out tonight, I favour james as a value shout for the other B2 place |
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rylan is brilliantly likeable. maloney has cracking support. ella hasnt shone with a personality at all
jahmene has the whole soft emotional vote. this is cracking. ellas gone imo. james is your winner. |
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Thanks Dizzy.......I owe you a drink
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Got me out of trouble there Hems tbh - no way I'd have predicted that bottom two... My feeling was EITHER Ella or James would fall into the drop zone not both!!!
But value is value - and that 6/1 with VC was all wrong. I managed to get on three times at 5s, 9/2 and 7/2 - but I was still convinced that it was going to be Rylan's week to go! |
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Papa predicted those two as the B2 how could he do that with the more obvious Rylan and Union J still in it. Great stuff from him.
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Incredible. Didn't see it coming myself. Was increasingly confident that Ella would drop into the B2 for the first time - but equally sure she would be saved (against anyone bar Jahmene and James of course!).
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Great call. I knew one of the two could be, but didn't back both. I suppose that is contradictory lol
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I had both for b2 tbf, but not the combo
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Same here George - it was only sheer luck that I had the 'any other' combo that VC priced up earlier in the week. Never would have predicted both being in the sing-off.
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James tco then
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yeah same, here and UJ/James, UJ/Ella combos but couldn't get a big enough price the actual combo.
Fantastic night tho, to have one of the front three in the B2 would have been good, to have two and one out - too much to hope for. |
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WD sq. Plenty up on the week, but I imagine my OR book took a similar hit. Still ella was only green no. 3
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James first ever b2 to shorten afterwards? Another strange effect
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Again, snap GB - just totting up the damage. Only about 50 up when all is said and done due to the amount still resting on Ella!
 I'd reduced Ella to 4th biggest green, but even so it was a big hit to take on my total outright stake. Thank God for the Star leak and taking some of that 25s on Tulisa being first to lose acts. Otherwise I really would have been in trouble! |
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Bar Jahmene he's got nothing to beat so with a 2/1 shot going out I can see why he's shortened.
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Jahmene / James / Chris in the final now?!
How would you price it...? |
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Looks likely now that last wkend's press about Ella not getting the vote and the begging probably helped her out of the danger zone then.
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A lot to happen yet Dizzy. I imagine James is going to get the biggest ramp in history
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JAmes has been on the biggest ramp in history through most of the series tbf.
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write*
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JAHMENE: 1/2
JAMES: 5/2 CHRIS: 12/1 |
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Looks set that way. We said that if one of the Big 3 fell into B2 they would get a huge bounce into final. But with this story it'll be massive. Great publicity and people finally motivated to vote. Anyone would think they planned it this way!
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I expect they expected Jimmy to be b2 with someone else OC
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^^^ That was in relation to James ramp
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Dizzy
No just the voters |
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I cannot see Jahmene being that short or James that long in the final
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Tulisa's going to be like a bear with a sore head on the rest of the shows, gunning for Maloney like SharonO would have done. No doubt she'll be all for James.
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Yes, of course GB - was being tongue in cheek. But it will still play out the way they wanted and propel James into the final as the only credible threat left to Jahmene.
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Or Chris that long
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Yeah Tulisa doesn't bear thinking about. He halo has slipped somewhat
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her
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I imagine James is going to get the biggest ramp in history
Similar to 1D. And they were in the 3's for ages too. But this time it's more a problem for them. This series the public have been reacting against their manipulations. |
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I think the current prices are about right for final three - 4/5, 2/1, 8/1
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