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**week seven bottom two thread**
**week seven bottom two thread**
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I'm pretty sure in saying Union J haven't closed the show wheraes the others all have so their turn maybe which can't be a bad thing.
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I still stick to my original point - D3 had quite an active (ableit limited) fanbase that could be seen trending on Twitter. They will have been supporting D3 as opposed to UJ - much more likely to switch to James' image/ intensity/fanciability than the UJ boys.
As above though it's all about weighing the merits of relative opinions. |
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I don't think either band have been around long enough to establish such loyalty yet tbh!
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Why should UJ bounce?
I think they'll have to bring out some mega emotional vt or something like that. We assume they were bottom of the vote. This is the second occasion of b2, so no real shock value. Should be possible to nudge them past Rylan, but one of the others as well? The only other runner that the prods don't want around is Chris but is he going to be outpolled by UJ? |
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No.
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Is everyone happy to say Chris safe from B2 again this week?
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Yes.
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Not everyone tim
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Just laid him at 3.4 for B2. Six pounds heading safely to `total available.
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It's Guilty pleasure week Chris is singing Wanna be in my Gang wearing a Fix it medallion on stage with the boychoir whilst showing a video of him visiting Sutcliffe and having drinks with the Wests. This is not confirmed btw but he may still escape b2 regardless
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as long as he's not strangling a kitten
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No
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I am finding this week a little more challenging, its Guilty pleasures week and has been a graveyard for those who have been viewed as polling well (notice I didnt say graveyards for favs).
My challenge this week surrounds the complexities in trying to work out a number of things, Rylan could in theory mop up the vote as this should be made for him. If he was to to an Adam Ant number he could be great as the vocals should be easy enough (as will the backing tracks) for antmusic or prince charming if TPTB want him in they may well give him something along these lines and it could be good. Will UJ get the bounce..Im not convinced but they could. James has already done a risky one in 'Im sexy and I know it' so he could excel. Ella could go down the route of Lucy and sing an uncredible song in a poor genre for her, my issue with Ella is she does get given edgy songs to sing but she loses all the edginess during the transition of making the song hers. Jahmene's style is not my personal taste but I respect those who like it, but Guilty pleasures are usually simple catchy songs and jahmene and keeping it simple will never be in the same sentence. Chris is another who should excel in this theme but is another who whilst popular doesnt meet my personal taste. I am tempted to chance Chris on the basis that in this week's theme the key is to have fun with the song and connect. I have yet to see him relaxed enough to have fun and if as I suspect it is this that will be picked up on during judges comments then he could be the best value opportunity. |
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Angel, are you up to date with the Star leaks?
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I am indeed hence why I said at the start people perceived to be polling well and why I mentioned value.
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I will be including chris in my bottom 2 betting also, B2 not elimination, the prices are near the same, I feel there is a small chance that Chris could be saved against rylan
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No chance. They will pick Chris off the first chance they get - in case it's their last before the final! But I very much doubt it will be this week, actually for the reasons Angel states. Guilty Pleasures gives Chris the chance to be as cheesy as he likes playing right to his audience. As long as it's not another upbeat number like last week I can't see him going from hero to zero in just two weeks.
I get your logic in Rylan potentially avoiding B2 with this theme, along with one of the more credible acts being in danger. It might be a difficult call, but I can't see any way Rylan can stay any longer. It's more than likely this will be his last hurrah - particularly if his fans think he's safe after avoiding the drop last week and getting even more favourable comments this week. |
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My reasoning comes from the fact that I sense James getting a little stronger, amking a B2 apperance less likely, I think Ella and Jahemene are still to strong for B2
so if UJ get the bounce who else is left to be B2 - only Baloney there is a perception out there that Chris is getting picked on a little, It would not be bad for the show to save him here is something chris tweeted today @ChrisMaloney77 I think the bullying u r being subjected 2 is an utter disgrace & that the judges & press should realise it's a family show Retweeted by Christopher Maloney If baloney is B2, the prods will know he is no threat to win this, I think they already Know this! A baloney save from B2 is not out of the question I think my theory is compatable with the star story when you look a janet devlin's path in xfactor |
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UJ may not get a big enough bounce though
my picks are rylan v UJ or rylan v baloney |
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The theory is compatible with Janet Devlin's path only in that they got her in their sights and then gunned her down mercilessly as soon as she fell into B2 in Guilty Pleasures week!
They can't afford for Chris to get the bounce if his previous percentages have been as high as reported. I agree James's support looks to be getting much stronger, judging by You Tube hits and Twitter followers etc., as well as well placed credible industry fans. His image is also softening. Conversely we have no evidence that Ella's support is going in the right direction. Backers can only hope that last week she got a boost from the Star leak. But if not, B2 could well be a real prospect this weekend. And actually it might be the best thing to happen to her if TPTB want her in the final. One big bounce could propel her to the final three. |
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My picks are Rylan vs UJ (in case their bounce is not enough) and 'Any Other' B2 combo which includes at least one of the 'big three'.
And Rylan to go, which I backed at 5/2 last Saturday. |
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I noticed I wasnt clear about my bet, it is for chris to be in b2 also I think he is potentially being set up this week with this theme as it allows the other candidates to steal away votes that Chris could have had exclusivity to.
For example the cheese factor, the old ballads, the so serious attempt at connecting with the audience because of singing a well known and well loved song. The other contestants will also potentially be doing this and hence stealing away some of his votes. I also feel he will be shown up as not having the fun factor due to his nervous persona and this week will probably demand that. |
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I have the feeling some over-analysis is coming into this as far as the theme is concerned. After all from what I have seen they can just about have anyone singing any song regardless of the theme. Didn't number ones week have a few non number ones?
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I'm always keen to know what the song choice is tbh I ignore the theme. It changes so often anyway
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apologies Bexley I felt it better to post with some justifcation as to why, but I get your point
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I've heard about this 'choice of 4' thing before and if the axe is about to fall, 'guilty pleasures' gives prods the opportunity to give them a pile of crap to choose from.
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Bex
I'm with you here they can sing just about anything can't they? Regarding the 'Number 1's week' I took it that it could have been a 'Number 1' anywhere not neccassarily UK or USA? |
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I assume the Robbie Williams Kiss-style, scary face make-up. Tenuous doesn't even begin to cover it!
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bex
Yes I agree again. 'Let me Entertain you' a 'Halloween week' song  Why not do 'Dancing Queen' and say it's all the witches dancing round their brooms. |
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backed rylan for elimination £569 @1.73 = +£415
laid rylan for B2 £569 @1.39 = -£222 Backed Baloney for B2 £191 @3.88 = +£549 my feeling is this gives me low risk bet.  the senarios rylan is not B2 = free bet on baloney being B2 rylan is B2 against baloney = a free bet on baloney being saved rylan is B2 against any other = the risk part of the bet, rylan would need to be saved against ella,UJ,james or jahmene. I don't see these things happening when Nicole has three acts left in the comp and rylan has run his race, in this senario barlow will be able to put rylan out as baloney is not a B2 act. please feel free to point out where my logic has failed  |
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UJ we know were polling badly, Ella we are led to believe is polling badly so that could be a B2 (very unlikely imo but possible never the less. What is for sure is that Ella, Chris and James's fanbase will be put to the test for the 1st time this week.
From what I see you could well be in the position of covering the other possibles by backing them in big price B2 combos to minimise losses. |
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my max loss is £982
in a sing off rylan could be laid @1.1, so it would only cost £100 to cover if everything goes wrong |
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rylan is not B2 = free bet on baloney being B2
I can't see how you get a free bet.You win 569 on the Lay of bottom 2,but lose 569 for your elim bet,therefore are level with the Shaky bet to run......apologies if I'm misunderstanding the bets. |
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Ah i see what I did wrong
should only have backed rylan for eliminaton for £310 @1.73 |
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I'm going to lay rylan for £259 @1.7 to get the bet I intended
 thx for the help |
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No worries
 Rylan v Anyone but Shaky your worst result? -190 Baloney bet -222 Rylan bottom 2 Lay Then -310 if Rylan saved or + 225ish if he goes ? Sh1t my heads hurting.....going back to the horses  |
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This is what I don;t ever give much info on bottom 2 as it's usually quite hard to predict.
Last week I said both boybands in bottom 2 and I got slated.I was 100% correct(even though I was sick of baloney) Last year I gave 1 elimination from sources I had.I have The risk at 50/1. The risk like I said was eliminated.I use sources and what I see going on singing/behaviour etc. There was a guy called Derry who was in the band and how he behaved and what he said I knew the voters would disconnect whcih they did. This week I see Rylan has played all his jokers been in the bottom 2. Union J I thought where really desparate for votes the other week ,telling of their families in the armed forces on best of british week.As most of you know many people in this country other different cultures have a massive dissconnect with that. Union J must have helped Jahmene massively there by getting the ethnic votes(only guy who has true faith in the lord) Anyway RYLAN/UNION J (no bounce) in the bottom 2.From my sources Ella is losing votes very fast and could be and outside danger to fill one of the slots above. From my sources Jahmene is pulling a very healthy lead now. |
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You wouldn't have got slated for suggesting the two boybands, loads of people thought and said as much. It was hardly a longshot and neither is what you have suggested for tonight.
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