Specials
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**week seven bottom two thread**
**week seven bottom two thread**
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Replies: 378
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pumpkin
Exactly!!! |
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tim
Oh I agree but some were saying that she could well be bottom 2 because of 'The Star' story ...................... but she wasn't. Listen got to shoot off to the hospital to visit Mum. TBC. wink! |
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I suggest we defer this dicussion until a day or two after the final. They will release the results, and we can see how close she has, or hasn`t, been to the B2.
The reason I am not solely laying Chris for B2, just in case you really don`t know, is that you are better off findng, and backing, the ones who will be there, rather than laying one that won`t, and, as a result, having a useless green on Jahmene to go home. Elementary stuff, boys. |
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I've always found the idea that the judges don't know how the voting is going utterly absurd. Especially the idea that Cowell didn't know when he was there
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The most interesting thing in the Star to me was them saying Jahemene's percentage was increasing. Now is that beacuse Maloney's is falling or is it just that the others are all going south?
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tim, are you suggesting backing those you think will stay in the winner market?
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Yep, interesting indeed TM.
From what I recall of the wording from the leak re: the first two weeks (something like wk 1 Jahmene and Ella were neck and neck in 2nd place way behind Chris, in 2nd wk Jahmene was clear 2nd some way behind Chris and Ella was further back in 3rd. I know it was discussed and various ideas of the likely %ages were stated on one of the threads somewhere on here) and from what can be read into the latest leak (I'll check the wording in a mo) it appears that Ella has definitely gone backwards, Jahmene is increasing and Chris is still strong. |
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from last Sunday's Star:
"We can reveal Ella struggled in the voting and risks being in tonight's sing off. An XF source said "It may be that Ella's fans think she is walking it, so they don't need to vote. "If that's the case the could not be more mistaken. "After a fairly strong start when she was in the top three for a few weeks, support has fallen away. She has been stuck just above the bottom two." |
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theY could not be
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Seems they're pushing Jahmene as the Star alludes, he is their best chance of toppling Maloney. With 3 weeks to go it'd be crazy to stop Jahmenes momentum and risk pushing Ella just to see Maloney win. They've put their eggs in the Jahmene basket and it's clearly working.
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It'd be suicidal to ramp Ella now and take away Jahmenes momentum as it'd leave Maloney dominating. Too much of a risk.
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So why don't the bookies or betfair markets reflect all this? It's in the public domain.
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Often they don't. Hollins stayed long odds for ages and ages.
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pumpkinslayerII 13 Nov 12 14:28
tim, are you suggesting backing those you think will stay in the winner market? Yes. I`ve been lumping on Maloney. I think he gets 2nd or 3rd, so great for trading purposes. |
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ok, couple of points. He actually drifted a bit after staying in last time. I imagine because the general public saw being last saved as negative. So last week it would have been better to lay him in the elimination market. This week, if rylan goes, the odds of the rest will come in by less that 1%. Why settle for 1% when you can lay Chris at below 5.0 and make 20%+. Now, Chris might well shorten more than 1%, but that's a totally different strategy and is based on your opinion, not the mathmatics of the market.
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ffs
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They're happy with Maloney for now. All this rubbish they're feeding the press about him is for publicity for the show and its side effect is its helping him.
When there are 4 left they'll try to get rid of him but if he gets 1st or 2nd amount of votes they won't be able to and he'll be there on the final. |
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That's how I see it. They're in a spot of trouble. You can see them wanting to stitch Maloney and push James/Ella into the final 3rd spot but it won't be easy.
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A radio presenter a couple of days ago said he was the subject of a campaign against the xfactor like rage against the machine was. The idea being to land them with a winner who won't make them money. It was the first i'd heard of this. Does anyone know any more about it?
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Wagner FM
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why start a camapign when nearly all their recent winners don't make them money?
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Saga magazine could do a roaring trade with cut price Baloney cds
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More Baloney volume VI
Baloney - the Nan Years |
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Jahmene is clearly TCO. The only one with a story which can be marketed in the US. They have a dozen Ellas across the pond already, she's proven she's not that good.
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I can't think of many Ella's across the pond.
Good white female ballad singers. Black gospel singers are ten a penny |
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Jane McDonald and Christopher Baloney - We Are Sailing (across the Mersey) 20 Cruise Classic Duets
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very early in the series, I honestly heard Jane on LW say she loved Chris, only one who sang songs she knew/liked !
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Endless Love
Easy Lover When You're Gone You're The One That I Want You Don't Bring Me Flowers Islands In The Stream Don't Go Breaking My Heart I've Had The Time of My Life I've Got You Babe Broken Strings Baby It's Cold Outside Somethin' Stupid Dancing In The Street Especially For You American Boy Id Do Anything for Love But I Won't Do That It Takes Two Baby Separate Lives FAirytale of New York You'll Never Walk Alone where can I buy it please |
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wtf can someone as cheesy as Maloney cover for Guilty Pleasures week - Pretty Vacant?
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Louis will send you a copy
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I think Ella should do something like Hopelessly Devoted To You for GP week (or The Lonely Goatherd  ) |
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You Raise Me Up (Titanic remix)
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If Chris does that he gets 90%
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Smack my B1Tch Up for Jahmene (sry, couldn't resist)
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pumpkinslayerII 13 Nov 12 14:43
ok, couple of points. He actually drifted a bit after staying in last time. I imagine because the general public saw being last saved as negative. So last week it would have been better to lay him in the elimination market. Correct, with hindsight. pumpkinslayerII 13 Nov 12 14:43 This week, if rylan goes, the odds of the rest will come in by less that 1%. Why settle for 1% when you can lay Chris at below 5.0 and make 20%+. Now, Chris might well shorten more than 1%, but that's a totally different strategy and is based on your opinion, not the mathmatics of the market. Rylan is 1.86 to go. No certainty. Someone else goes, that 1% grows. Assuming he does go, I think Maloney will shorten by more than 1%, mainly because people will see him avoid the B2, again, and the market will open its, even now, semi-blinkered eyes. Just to be clear, I really can`t be doing with him, personally. I`m just putting faith in The Star, which means 2nd or 3rd. And plenty of time to bail out profitably. |
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Yep 1% isn't the story. It's the drift on whoever is b2 with Rylan. Given a UJ bounce this might have to be Ella or James
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^^ Exactly. That's why the 'any other' combo was such great value at 6s / 5s. If Baloney remains near the top and UJ get the bounce then one of the 'big three' has to be in B2 with Rylan. Unless Sunday's voting leak worked as intended to galvanise Ella's vote, I fear it could be her.
However, as discussed previously, this could actually boost her vote in future weeks considerably... |