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The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most valuable horse race run in the United States each year and considered by many to be the most prestigious horse race run in the world. Raven’s Pass became the first British winner of the race in 2008, the first time the Classic was run on a synthetic pro-ride surface. In 2009 Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she almost repeated the feat last year. There has been no standout American colt on the dirt this year, which is why another female, Havre De Grace, is considered to have a big chance of being the second female winner of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-44
4yo: 5-9-43
5yo: 3-1-21
6yo+: 0-3-11
Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 53.8% of total runners.
The two 3yo winners both posted a career high RPR in winning a grade/group 1 on their previous start and had finished in first 4 in a British Classic or a Triple Crown race.
No horse aged above 5 has ever won the race and all 3 horses aged 6+ to be placed in this had finished in first 4 the previous year (2 were returning winners, the other had finished 4th & 6th in previous 2 Classics).

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by a stallion that raced in North America (exception was by Candy Stripes, who was bred in Kentucky but raced in France)   
8 of 10 winners were sired by a graded winner in America (2 exceptions were by sires who were placed in grade/group 1 company)   

Gender
Only 2 female horses have run in the race in the past decade. Azeri finished 5th in 2004 and Zenyatta won the race in 2009 and was a fast finishing 2nd last year.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on all starts that season (the 10 winners collectively had 49 previous starts the year they won this, only once in those 49 runs were they out of the first 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F (exception was the one British-trained winner, who had never run over further than a mile)
8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (2 exceptions won a grade 2)
7 of 10 winners had their last run 20 to 35 days ago (3 exceptions had won the Woodward Stakes or Whitney Handicap last time out)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at that year's BC track (other 4 were having first start at the BC track)

Other Races
Whitney Handicap winner (Tizway): 22171 (2-2-5)
Woodward Stakes (Havre De Grace): 113740 (2-1-6)
Previous season's Clark Handicap winner (Giant Oak): 101 (2-0-3)
Stephen Foster H'cap winner (Pool Play): 56141 (2-0-5)
Santa Anita Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1370 (1-1-4)
Suburban H'cap winner (Flat Out): 3010 (1-1-4)
Preakness winner (Shackleford): 89214 (1-1-5)
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 840021440 (1-1-9)
Philip H. Iselin Stakes winner (Where's Sterling): 1 (1-0-1)
Donn Handicap winner (Giant Oak): 10 (1-0-2)
Arkansas Derby winner (Archarcharch): 91 (1-0-2)
Rebel Stakes winner (The Factor): 914 (1-0-3)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 0175 (1-0-4)
Travers Stakes winner (Stay Thirsty): 28722464 (0-3-8)
Strub Stakes winner (Twirling Candy): 2 (0-1-1)
Apple Blossom H'cap winner (Havre De Grace): 52 (0-1-2)
Previous Breeders Cup Juvenile winner (Uncle Mo): 44 (0-0-2)
Haskell Invitational Handicap winner (Coil): 864 (0-0-3)
Belmont Stakes winner (Ruler On Ice): 674 (0-0-3)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 898 (0-0-3)
Kentucky Derby (Animal Kingdom): 8949 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Woodward Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 146
2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Gold Cup last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Stephen Foster H'cap, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Clark H'cap, finishing 11

Churchill Downs BC Classics
The Breeders’ Cup has been held at Churchill Downs 7 times, and it can be illuminating to see if they are any trends specific to those 7 runnings.
Whitney H’cap winner at Churchill Downs (Tizway): 1511 (3-0-4)
Stephen Foster H'cap winner (Pool Play): 1101 (3-0-4)
Philip H. Iselin Stakes winner (Where's Sterling): 116 (2-0-3)
Strub Stakes winner (Twirling Candy): 12 (1-1-2)
Woodward Stakes winner (Havre De Grace):  16530 (1-1-5)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 2491 (1-1-4)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 76217 (1-1-5)
Both 3yo winners of the BC Classic at Churchill Downs had finished in the first 2 in the Super Derby.
3 of the 4 winners of the Whitney H’cap to run in the BC Classic at Churchill Downs have won it. The 1988 Whitney H’cap winner, Personal Ensign, was a filly and went on to win the BC Distaff at Churchill Downs that year.

Trainers
John Shirreffs (1-2-5) trained Tiago to finish 3rd in 2008 and Zenyatta to finish 1st & 2nd in past 2 renewals.
Richard Mandella (1-1-2) saddled Pleasantly Perfect to win and finish 3rd in consecutive years.
Jay Robbins (1-0-1), John Gosden (1-0-1), Albert Stall jr (1-0-1), Richard Dutrow Jnr (1-0-2), Kiaran McLaughlin (1-0-2), Philip Johnson (1-0-2) and Steve Asmussen (1-0-4) have all trained the winner once since 2001.
Christophe Clement (0-2-3) and Nicholas Zito (0-2-6) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-4), Todd Pletcher (0-1-9) and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-10) have each managed just 1 place since 2001 while Bob Baffert (0-0-4) has seen his 4 runners all finish out of the money.
Record of European-trained runners: 1-3-16 (only winner came on Pro-Ride, record on dirt is 0-1-11)

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 4 in the betting & were priced 8/1 or lower
Favourites (1-3-10) have a very poor record in this recently, having gained only won 1 in the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Sired by a graded winner that raced in North America
•    Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that finished 1st or 2nd in the 2011 Super Derby)
•    Finished in first 4 in all starts in 2011
•    Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time (ideally won)
•    Had last run 20 to 35 days ago (or won Woodward or Whitney last time)
•    Previously won a grade/group 1
•    Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
•    Finished in first 4 in Churchill Downs grade 1 in 2011 (or having 1st run here)
•    Won the Woodward, Whitney, Stephen Foster and/or Clark H’cap
•    Ran in Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood Stakes and/or JC Gold Cup
•    Trained in North America (John Shirreffs has a good recent record)
•    From the first 4 in the betting
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The race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup, takes place at Flemington Racecourse on the first Tuesday of November (1st). As usual there will be a European raiding party heading over to try to return home with the Cup and emulate Americain’s achievement last year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-11-71
5yo: 5-7-68
6yo: 1-6-49
7yo: 1-2-27
8yo+: 0-3-11
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.

Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-11
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 4-11-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-11-116
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-5-38
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 6 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 5-11-69
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-66

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won a group race last time (5 others beaten in group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 2 finished 6th & 7th)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Americain): 1170 (2-0-4)
Geelong Cup winner: 4102921 (2-3-7)
Turnbull Stakes winner (December Draw): 4104 (1-2-4)
Lexus Stakes winner: 5000039613 (1-2-10)
Memsie Stakes winner (King's Rose): 13 (1-1-2)
Australian Cup winner (Shocking): 14 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Victoria Derby winner (Lion Tamer): 41 (1-1-2)
Cox Plate winner: 13 (1-1-2)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 103 (1-1-3)
Previous season's VRC QE Stakes winner (Moudre): 0130 (1-1-4)
Brisbane Cup winner (): 0601 (1-1-4)
Caulfield Cup winner: 140087P (1-1-7)
Prix Kergolay winner (Jukebox Jury): 1 (1-0-1)
Sydney Cup winner (Stand To Gain): 10 (1-0-2)
The BMW Stakes winner (Cedarberg): P100 (1-0-4)
Underwood Stakes winner (Lion Tamer): 43 (0-2-2)
Irish St Leger winner (Jukebox Jury): 420 (0-2-3)
Makybe Diva Stakes winner (Littorio): 40 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Stakes winner (Descarado): 03 (0-1-2)
Yalumba/Caulfield Stakes winner (): 03 (0-1-2)
Herbert Power Stakes winner (Shewan): 084860 (0-1-6)
AJC Oaks winner (Absolutely): 000 (0-0-3)
AJC Derby winner (Shamrocker): 000 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caufield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in Geelong Cup, finishing 11

Trainers
Lee Freedman (2-0-4) twice won the race with Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005.
Dermot Weld (1-2-7) is still the only European trainer to have won the race twice (‘93&’02). In the past decade he has saddled the winner and 2 places from 7 runners. Only 1 of his 7 runners have finished out of the top half.
David Hall (1-2-5) and Graeme Rogerson (1-2-6) have each trained the winner and 2 placed finishers.
Katsuhiko Sumii (1-1-2) from Japan trained the 1-2 in 2007. Bart Cummings (1-1-13), Alain Royer-Dupre (1-0-1) and Mark Kavanagh (1-0-2) have also saddled the winner once since 2001.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-11) has gained 3 places in past 10 runnings. Tony Vasil’s (0-2-2) only 2 runners finished 3rd and 4th in 2004. Luca Cumani (0-2-5) has had the runner-up in this race in 2 of the last 4 years while Danny O’Brien (0-2-9) saddled Master O’Reilly to be placed in 2008 & 2009.
Record of Irish-trained runners: 1-3-13
Record of French-trained runners: 1-0-3
Record of British-trained runners: 0-7-31

Draw
Horses drawn 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 1-7-88
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 8 years 14 of the 16 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 5 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5
•    Carrying 53.0 kilos or more
•    Ran in a group race in the last 17 days
•    Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
•    Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
•    Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
•    Won over 2400m or further
•    Won a race with 14+ runners
•    Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
•    Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
•    Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
•    Likes to be held up
•    Drawn 7 to 14
•    Trained by Lee Freedman or Dermot Weld
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The group 1 Qatar Prix Du Cadran takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October on the supporting card to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Run over 2M 4F it is one of the major races on the calendar for the top class European stayers.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-5-27
5yo: 3-2-25
6yo: 2-4-16
7yo: 2-3-17
8yo+: 0-4-12
4 & 5yos (6-7-52) have a slightly better record than horses aged 6+ (4-11-45) but no strong trends on the ages of winners.

Gender
Fillies/mares (0-2-9) have gained 2 places from 9 runners since 2001. The last female winner of the Cadran was Molesnes in 1994.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in the last 30 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (1 exception was 2nd on only start over 2M & other had won over 1M 6F and was having first try over 2M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
Only 2 of 10 winners had won a group 1
5 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
7 of 7 French-trained winners had previous start at Longchamp

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Gentoo): 3146 (1-1-4)
Prix Gladiateur winner (Ley Hunter): 831132421 (3-3-9)
Prix Du Carrousel winner (Terre du Vent): 22217 (1-3-5)
Previous season's Prix Chaudenay winner (Celtic Celeb): 12 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Cesarewitch winner (Aaim To Prosper): 1 (1-0-1)
Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 15 (1-0-2)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Fame And Glory): 351 (1-0-3)
Prix Royal Oak winner (Gentoo): 163 (1-0-3)
Prix De Barbeville winner (Dunaden): 1508 (1-0-4)
Prix La Moskowa winner (Shamanova): 223 (0-3-3)
Prix De Reux winner (Americain): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix Vicomtesse Vigier winner (Brigantin): 872 (0-1-3)
Prix Right Royal winner (Kasbah Bliss): 5308 (0-1-4)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Fame And Glory): 46353 (0-1-5)
Oleander-Rennen winner (Tres Rock Danon): 069 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 865 (0-0-3)
6 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Gladieteur last time, finishing 211321
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 5253
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Kergolay, finishing 224
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix de Barbeville, finishing 412
2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 95
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Goodwood Cup, finishing 24
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Lonsdale Cup, finishing 51
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 31

Trainers
French-trained runners: 7-14-63
British-trained runners: 2-3-21
Irish-trained runners: 1-1-7
Other: 0-0-4
John Dunlop (1-1-2) has a superb record in the race, gaining 2 wins and a place from his 3 runners since 2000.
Alain Lyon (1-0-1) trained Gentoo to win this last year. Andre Fabre (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this in past 10 years.
Alain Royer-Dupre (0-2-4) and Francois Doumen (0-2-6) have each saddled 2 placed finishers since 2001.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 4 in the betting
The last 9 winners all went off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.76.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Finished in the first 3 last time in past 30 days
•    Has run at least 4 times this year
•    Won a listed or a group race
•    Won over 2M+
•    Course winner (or having first run at Longchamp)
•    Finished in first 3 in the Prix Gladiateur last time
•    First 5 in the Ascot Gold Cup, Prix De Barbeville or Kergolay
•    Trained in France or by John Dunlop
•    From first 4 in the betting
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The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 10 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and two years ago the mighty Sea The Stars. Last year's winner, Workforce, will be attempting to become the first horse since Alleged in 1978 to win back to back runnings of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-9-66
4yo: 2-6-55
5yo: 1-1-20
6yo+: 0-4-13
3yos (7-9-66) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-11-88).

Pedigree
8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7. The 2 exceptions were sired by horses with stamina index of 11.6-11.7.
Surprisingly the recent trend has been towards horses with more speed in their pedigree, the last 5 winners’ sires had stamina indexes ranging from 8.2 to 9.2.

Gender
Fillies & mares (1-4-25) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 25 runners.
Unsurprising female 3yos (1-3-12) have a much better record than those aged 4+ (0-1-13).
The only female winner was the exceptional Zarakava, who had won all 6 of her previous starts, 4 group 1’s including the French 1000 Guineas, French Oaks and Prix Vermeille.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their races that season
6 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions had yet to run at Longchamp)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (2 exceptions had been placed on only start over 1M 4F, in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 190K
10 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race
4 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (one exception was unraced as 2yo, other two won maiden only start at 2)

Arc Trials
Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 4210115534 (3-2-10)
Prix Vermielle winner (Galikova): 2617 (1-1-4)
Prix Foy winner (Sarafina): 76907800 (0-0-8)
4 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 1311
Horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 94204100111853538d74 (4-3-19)
Horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 02076107503 (1-1-10)
Horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 07976907484297000002 (0-2-20)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Workforce): 33 (0-2-2)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (So You Think): 3110 (2-1-4)
Grand Prix de Paris winner (Meandre): 101834 (2-1-6)
Previous season's Prix Des Chenes winner (French Navy): 114 (2-0-3)
Prix de Diane winner (Golden Lilac): 27172 (1-2-5)
Prix Du Jockey winner (Reliable Man): 921050 (1-1-6)
Irish Derby winner (Treasure Beach): 301560 (1-1-6)
Prix Ganay winner (Planteur): 603170 (1-1-6)
Eclipse winner (So You Think): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Du Lys winner (Kreem): 401 (1-0-3)
Grosser Preis Von Berlin winner (Danedream): 010 (1-0-3)
King George winner (Nathaniel): 4174 (1-0-4)
Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 19800 (1-0-5)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Sarafina): 9220 (0-2-4)
Prix Saint-Alary winner (Wavering): 73 (0-1-2)
Tenno Sho Spring winner (Hiruno D'Amour): 03d (0-1-2)
Prix Corrida winner (Sarafina): 270 (0-1-3)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 09735 (0-1-5)
Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 959d (0-0-3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 6475 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 1321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 15
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 21
2 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 2) ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French Derby, finishing 12
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 11

Trainers
French-trained horses: 5-10-73
British-trained horses: 3-5-38
Irish-trained horses: 2-3-25
German-trained horses: 0-1-8
Japanese-trained horses: 0-2-6
Other: 0-0-4
Andre Fabre (2-4-15), Alain de Royer-Dupre (2-2-11) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-6) have each trained 2 winners of this in the past 10 years.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-18) has only won the race once from 18 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-3-9.
Jonathan Pease (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2001 while Michael Stoute (1-0-10) won the race last year with Workforce.
Mick Channon (0-3-5) has saddled Youmzain to finish 2nd three times. Elle Lellouche (0-2-10) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.

Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)
Horses drawn bottom half: 7-11-76
Horses drawn top half: 2-7-70
Only Dalakhani and Sakhee have been able to win from the top half of the draw. In general a lower draw is preferable.

Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were held up in midfield or rear
The recent trend has been towards hold up horses that have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 16/1 (158/10) but the other 9 winners were all priced 10/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.74.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or were unbeaten at 2)
•    Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7
•    Won last time out in last 50 days
•    Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
•    Won over 1M 4F
•    Course winner (or having first run here)
•    Having first start in the race
•    Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
•    Irish Champion Stales or Grand Prix de Paris winner
•    From first 4 in the betting
•    Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
•    Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
•    Hold-up horse
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AYR GOLD CUP 10-YEAR-TRENDS

14 Sep 11 22:05
The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 17th September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, it has been dominated in recent years by Dandy Nicholls. Horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup on Friday, both races can often provide clues to the best place to be drawn.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-2-34
4yo: 4-7-76
5yo: 3-11-64
6yo+: 2-7-42
7yo+: 0-3-47
Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of the last 10, though that age group has represented almost 70% of the total runners.
Horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 3 of their 47 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-6 or over: 1-5-29
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 4-12-76
Horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 4-10-129
Horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-2-19
5 of the last 6 winners carried over 9-0 with the one exception being a horse allotted 9-1 with a 5lb claimer. The first 4 home in past 2 years all carried 9-2 or more.
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-26
Top weight: 0003009200370 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or higher: 1-12-75
Horses rated 90 to 100: 9-17-174
Horses rated 89 or less: 0-1-14
In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. The last 6 winners were all rated 97 or higher and 21 of 24 placed horses in the past 6 years were rated 97+.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days (2 exceptions ran in past 50 days)
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had gained no more than 1 win that season (6 hadn't won)
8 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (2 exceptions won over 7F)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a class 3 or better
7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race
9 of 10 winners had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a race with 14+ runners in it

Other Races
Al Rayan Handicap winner (Pastoral Player): 683440 (0-3-6)
Great St Wilfrid winner (Pepper Lane): 40720 (0-2-5)
Symphony Group Stakes winner (Secret Asset): 2 (0-1-1)
Mobile at Bet365 Stakes winner (Secret Asset): 00 (0-0-2)
Gosforth Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 00 (0-0-2)
Bet On Wimbledon At totesport.com H'cap winner (Parisian Pyramid): 800
Northern Sprint Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 905 (0-0-3)
Bet On Live Tennis At totesport.com H'cap winner (Norville): 800 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 00000
3 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 004
2 of 10 winners ran in Portland Handicap last time, finishing 40
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 40

Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (5-5-46) has won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 2 of the last 3) although he has saddled almost 17.5% of the total runners.
Richard Fahey (1-3-15) and Kevin Ryan (1-2-18) have also both saddled the winner and multiple places in the past 10 years.
Clive Cox (1-0-7) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner since 2001.
Three trainers who have struggled in this race are David Barron (0-1-13), Tim Easterby (0-0-7) and Jim Goldie (0-0-15).
Irish-trained-runners (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners.

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 3-11-90
Horses drawn 10 to 18: 4-12-90
Horses drawn 19 or higher: 3-7-83
The winners have come from all over the track. The best option is to view the races run over the sprint course on Thursday and Friday to source clues about the draw.
On the 4 occasions the ground has been on the soft side of good, all 4 winners came from the top or bottom 8 stalls. However on good or firmer 4 of the 6 winners came from the middle.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1
There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 33/1 (2004).
Favourites (0-1-11) have a shocking record in this race having failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 3 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 to 6
•    Carrying 9-0 to 9-6
•    Officially rated 97 or higher
•    Has run at least 4 times this season
•    Won no more than once in 2011 (ideally no wins this year)
•    Ran in a class 3 or better in past 30 days
•    Had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster
•    Won at class 3 level or higher
•    Won over 6F or 7F
•    Contested the Stewards Cup and/or Great St Wilfrid in 2011
•    Trained by Dandy Nicholls
•    Priced between 10/1 and 20/1
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The Betfred Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day Ebor festival which starts on Wednesday 17th August. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at York (2000-2010):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-14
4yo: 2-12-84
5yo: 5-8-61
6yo+: 1-3-45
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 45 runners in the past 10 renewals.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-18-116
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-12-88
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high RPR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-38
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-19-129
Horses rated 91 or less: 3-3-37
7 of last 10 winners have all been officially rated between 92 and 102.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (both exceptions won a class 3)
10 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of last 12 months in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had run 3 times, all in listed or group company)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception 2nd in a group 3)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (exception was 2nd in group 3 over 1M 6F)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a hurdles race earlier that year
5 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
2 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time

Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 004100 (1-1-6)
John Smith's Silver Cup winner (Tactician): 3 (0-1-1)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Fox Hunt): 30 (0-1-2)
Braveheart handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 939 (0-1-3)
Bet On Wimbledon totesport.com H'cap winner (Sivino): 75 (0-0-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Halicarnassus): 805009 (0-0-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time

Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-2-7) has won the race three times since 1999 and 5 of his 7 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen both his representatives make the places, while James Fanshawe (0-2-4) and Michael Stoute (0-2-9) have also saddled a couple of placed- finishers.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-16) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th last year.

Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 9-6-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-11-64
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were drawn in the highest 7 stalls

Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear

Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 3 to 5
•    Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)
•    Officially rated 92 to 102
•    Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
•    Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
•    Won a race this season
•    Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
•    Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
•    Run in 8 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
•    Won at class 3 level or higher
•    Won over 1M 4F+
•    Drawn in highest 7 stalls
•    Hold up horses favoured
•    Trained by Luca Cumani, Philip Hobbs or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo
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The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the most valuable race to be run at Ripon all season and it takes place this Saturday, 13th August. It is run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older it is always a very hotly contested handicap, the winning distance for the last 4 years has been a neck or shorter.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-2-8
4yo: 4-8-55
5yo: 2-10-53
6yo: 2-4-36
7yo: 2-5-28
8yo+: 0-1-25
No very strong trends on age, obviously 10 of 10 winners have been aged 4 to 7, though they represented almost 84% of the total runners.
Horses aged 8+ have a very poor record of 0 wins & 1 place from 25 runners.
The last winning 3yo was Pipalong in 1999; she went on to win at group 1 level.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-4-26
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-59
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-13-95
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-3-25
Higher weights have held the edge in recent years with the last 5 winners carrying 8-10 to 9-6.
Top Weight: 040000000720 (0-2-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or higher: 0-3-19
Horses rated 91 to 100: 7-11-92
Horses rated 90 or less: 3-16-94
7 of the last 8 winners (last 5) were officially rated between 91 and 100.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions were placed on last 2 runs and placed in Stewards Cup last time out)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in past 20 days
10 of 10 winners had won over at least 6 furlongs
9 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Damika): 6030 (0-1-4)
Stoneacre Ford Handicap winner (Mon Brav): 8021 (1-1-4)
Armstrong Memorial Handicap  winner (Pepper Lane): 0240040 (0-3-7)
Bet On Live Tennis At totesport.com Handicap winner (Norville): 2 (0-1-1)
Directors Cup winner (Addictive Dream): 2 (0-1-1)
Totescoop6 Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 30 (0-1-2)
Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Handicap (Novellan Lad): 04 (0-1-2)
Ayr Silver Cup winner (Colonel Mak): 50 (0-0-2)
Scottish Stewards' Cup winner (Quest For Success): 500 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0404
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 86
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Steward's Cup, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in the RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 10

Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (2-9-34) has done really well with his runners in this race in past 7 years. Since 2004 he has had 2 winners and 9 more placed from just 23 runners. Adrian Nicholls’ last 5 rides in the race have supplied a winner and 4 places (all on Dandy Nicholls runners, he will likely be on the stable first string).
David Evans (1-0-1) won the race in 2003 while Richard Whitaker (1-0-2) saddled Damika to win it last year.
Mick Channon (0-4-11), Tim Easterby (0-2-13) and Kevin Ryan (0-2-17) have all gained multiple places in the past 10 years though they have saddled numerous runners.
Mark Johnston (0-0-3) and Richard Fahey (0-0-11) are two of the most successful trainers at Ripon but both have failed to saddle a runner in the frame in this since 2000.

Draw (stats updated for stalls reordering)
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 9-19-100
Horses drawn 11 or higher: 1-11-105
Horses drawn low have a big advantage with no winner coming from higher than stall 11 in past 10 years.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off between 8/1 & 20/1
The only 2 winners to win outside the 8/1 to 20/1 band were the two winning favourites.
Favourites (2-3-10) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 to 7
•    Carrying 8-10 to 9-6
•    Officially rated 91 to 100
•    Run at least 3 times this season
•    Won a race this season (or placed in Steward’s Cup)
•    Ran in last 20 days in class 3 or higher
•    Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time out
•    Won over 6F or further
•    Drawn 1 to 10
•    Trained by Dandy Nicholls (and ridden by Adrian Nicholls)

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The Arlington Million was first run in 1981 and was the first ever race to offer a purse of $1 million as the prize. It takes place at Arlington Park on Saturday 13th August and as per usual there will be a good European presence in the race, headed by recent Man O’War winner Cape Blanco.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (access to old US form is slightly limited so if you notice any errors please flag them up):

Age
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 4-6-38
5yo: 5-4-28
6yo: 0-5-19
7yo+: 1-2-10
Horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 9-10-66
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 1-7-29

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 4 last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days (both exceptions trained in Europe)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception was beaten a head in a group 1 & other was a group 2 winner)

Other Races
Man O'War Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 242312 (1-3-6)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic winner (Mission Approved): 519457 (1-0-6)
Arlington Handicap winner (Tajaaweed): 059795624 (0-1-9)
Jebel Hatta winner (Wigmore Hall): 8 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Manhattan Handicap, finishing 191
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Sheema Classic, finishing 315
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gulfstream Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Jamacian Handicap, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Hollywood Derby, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, finishing 25d
4 of 5 European-trained winners ran at Dubai Carnival earlier that year

Trainers
American trained runners: 4-10-55
English-trained runners: 2-4-16
German-trained runners: 1-3-6
Canadian trained runners: 1-0-4
Irish-trained runners: 1-0-6
French-trained runners: 1-0-10
South African-trained runners: 0-1-1
North-American-trained runners: 5-10-59
European-trained runners: 5-7-38
Christophe Clement (1-2-3) has seen all 3 of his runners make the frame and he saddled Gio Ponti to win the race in 2009 & finish 2nd last year.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) was unlucky to see Powerscourt get disqualified in 2004 but he made up for that by winning the race in 2005.

Price
No strong trends on prices. There have been a couple of upset in past 3 years with Spirit One winning at 137/10 in 2008 and Debussy winning at 11/1 last year.
Favourites (3-5-10) show a level stakes loss of 2.30 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5
•    Run 2 to 5 times this year
•    Finished in the first 4 in a group 1 or 2 last time out
•    Ran in the past 45 days
•    Won over 1M 2F+
•    Won a group 1
•    Ran in the Manhattan Handicap and/or Sheema Classic
•    Trained in Europe & ran at 2011 Dubai Carnival
•    Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Christophe Clement

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The Phoenix Stakes is the first group 1 race for 2yos run in Britain and Ireland this year. It takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 7th August. The race was formerly run at the now-closed Phoenix Park and then at Leopardstown but was moved to its current home following the loss of the straight 6 furlong track at Leopardstown. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the race in recent times, winning 11 of the last 13 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yos

Gender
Fillies (2-3-20) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race from approximately 27% of the total runners. The two female winners were the only two non-O’Brien-trained winners in the past decade. Both finished in the first 2 in the Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint at Naas.

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were born before 1st April
10 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 7.6 to 9.2
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (both exceptions' sires were 2nd in a group 1)
6 of 10 winners (last 3) were sired by Danehill or a son of Danehill

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions placed in listed/group race)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times (exception was unbeaten in 2 starts)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) had won over CD (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first run at the track, other exception was 2nd in a group 3 over CD only previous run here)
6 of 10 winners (last 6) won their maiden at Curragh or Leopardstown
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions had finished 2nd in a group race)

Other Races
Railway Stakes winner (Lilbourne Lad): 91111 (4-0-5)
Alfred Nobel EBF Maiden winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Leopardstown 6F EBF Maiden winner (Parish Hall): 51 (1-0-2)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 332223 (0-3-6)
Marble Hill Stakes winner (Power): 2355 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 1111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey Stakes, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry, finishing 906
2 of 2 winning fillies ran in Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint, finishing 12
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (3 Coventry, 1 Norfolk, 1 Queen Mary)

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (8-6-28) has trained 8 of the last 10 winners, his runners have accounted for only 37.8% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 7-1-10.
Jim Bolger (1-1-4) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year that has trained the winner in the past decade. His last 2 representatives were a 25/1 winner in 2007 and a 12/1 runner-up last year.
Kevin Prendergast (0-1-11) has not done so well in this race, gaining no wins and just 1 place from 11 runners since 2001.
British trained runners (0-3-11) have failed to win the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for 4 favourites in that time. The last winner to be trained abroad was Princely Heir, in 1997, for Mark Johnston.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 4/1 or below
There have been 2 shocks in this race in the past 10 years, with Spartacus 16/1 in 2002 and Saoirse Abu 25/1 in 2007, both fillies, landing this prize. All other winners came from the first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.70.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

•    Born before 01/04/2009
•    Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 7.6 to 9.2
•    Ideally sired by a son of Danehill
•    Had 3 to 5 career starts
•    Won last time out (or placed in a group race)
•    Posted highest RPR last time
•    Won a group race over 6F or 7F
•    Won over CD (or having first course start)
•    Ran at Royal Ascot (either won a race or unplaced in Coventry)
•    Won Railway Stakes
•    Trained by Aidan O’Brien
•    From first 3 in the betting
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The Bluesquare.com Stewards Cup, which takes place on Saturday 30th July, is the big betting race of Glorious Goodwood’s 5-day meeting. It’s run over 6 furlongs and is always a highly competitive affair with the Wokingham, recently, being the race to focus on for clues.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 0-1-19
4yo: 3-10-87
5yo: 6-7-69
6yo: 1-7-53
7yo+: 0-5-51
The last 9 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 1-12-104

Weight
Horses carrying 9-4 or more: 2-6-64
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-3: 7-16-146
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-8-67
7 of 10 winners (last 4) carried between 8-9 and 9-3, from approximately 53% of the total runners
Horses carrying a penalty: 2-4-42
Top weight: 0080056030 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 99 or higher: 2-9-102
Horses rated 91 to 98: 7-11-112
Horses rated 90 or less: 1-10-63
9 of 10 winners (last 8) have been officially rated between 91 & 102

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners had run in past 25 days (2 exceptions had run in last 60 days)
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season
8 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 22 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 6F
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 20K or more
9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Evens And Odds): 20 (0-1-2)
Ritz Club Handicap winner (Medicean Man): 10 (1-0-2)
Sportingbet.com Stakes handicap winner (Hoof It): 160 (1-0-3)
Investec Specialist Bank Handicap winner (Swiss Cross): 000105 (1-0-6)
Al Rayan Handicap winner (Pastoral Player): 22572 (0-3-5)
Newcastle totescoop6 Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 3792 (0-2-4)
Bond Tyres Stakes winner (Lexi's Hero): 4 (0-1-1)
Hampshire Society Stakes winner (Crown Choice): 30 (0-1-2)
Skybet Dash winner (Hoof It): 03 (0-1-2)
Scottish Stewards Cup winner (Quest For Success): 0036 (0-1-4)
Ayr Silver Cup winner (Colonel Mak): 500 (0-0-3)
Gosford Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 0500 (0-0-4)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 8547000
4 of 10 winners ran in York Sportingbet.com Stakes, finishing 9031
3 of 10 winners ran in Bet On Live Tennis At totesport.com Handicap at Windsor, finishing 072
2 of 10 winners ran in Hong Kong Jockey Club handicap, finishing 92
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup, finishing 10
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Coral Sprint Trophy, finishing 10

Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (2-7-41) trained the winner in 2000, 2005 & 2010 and 9 of his 41 runners in past 10 years have made the frame.
John Fanshawe (1-2-3) and William Haggas (1-1-2) have both trained the winner in past 10 years and all 5 of their collective runners made the places.
Peter Makin (1-0-1) and Bryan Smart (1-0-5) are the only other trainers with entries to have won the race since 2001.
Richard Fahey (0-3-18), John Quinn (0-2-6) and Kevin Ryan (0-2-18) have each saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years.

Draw (data updated for new stall ordering)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 2-13-90
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 7-9-100
Horses drawn 20 or higher: 1-8-87
7 of 10 winners (last 6) were drawn 10 to 19
The only horse to win this from stall 20 or higher was Pivotal Point, who won a group 3 and a group 2 in his next 3 races.

Price
No very strong trends on prices as while 7 of 10 winners came from first 5 in the betting, the last 3 winners were priced 40/1, 14/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-5-15) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.36 over the past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5 (especially 5yos)
•    Carrying 8-9 to 9-3
•    Officially rated 91 to 102
•    Won a race this season
•    Ran in a class 2 or higher in the last 25 days
•    Won over 6F
•    Won or placed in a race worth 20K+
•    Won a class 3 or higher
•    Run in 10 to 22 handicaps (winning no more than 3)
•    Ran in the Wokingham this season
•    Ran in Sportingbet.com Stakes and/or Bet On Live Tennis At totesport.com Handicap
•    Trained by D Nicholls, J Fanshawe or W Haggas
•    Drawn 10 to 19
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