Racecaller08

The Arlington Million was first run in 1981 and was the first ever race to offer a purse of $1 million as the prize. It takes place at Arlington Park on Saturday 13th August and as per usual there will be a good European presence in the race, headed by recent Man O’War winner Cape Blanco.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (access to old US form is slightly limited so if you notice any errors please flag them up):

Age
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 4-6-38
5yo: 5-4-28
6yo: 0-5-19
7yo+: 1-2-10
Horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 9-10-66
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 1-7-29

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in the first 4 last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days (both exceptions trained in Europe)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception was beaten a head in a group 1 & other was a group 2 winner)

Other Races
Man O'War Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 242312 (1-3-6)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic winner (Mission Approved): 519457 (1-0-6)
Arlington Handicap winner (Tajaaweed): 059795624 (0-1-9)
Jebel Hatta winner (Wigmore Hall): 8 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Manhattan Handicap, finishing 191
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Sheema Classic, finishing 315
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gulfstream Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Jamacian Handicap, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Hollywood Derby, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, finishing 25d
4 of 5 European-trained winners ran at Dubai Carnival earlier that year

Trainers
American trained runners: 4-10-55
English-trained runners: 2-4-16
German-trained runners: 1-3-6
Canadian trained runners: 1-0-4
Irish-trained runners: 1-0-6
French-trained runners: 1-0-10
South African-trained runners: 0-1-1
North-American-trained runners: 5-10-59
European-trained runners: 5-7-38
Christophe Clement (1-2-3) has seen all 3 of his runners make the frame and he saddled Gio Ponti to win the race in 2009 & finish 2nd last year.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) was unlucky to see Powerscourt get disqualified in 2004 but he made up for that by winning the race in 2005.

Price
No strong trends on prices. There have been a couple of upset in past 3 years with Spirit One winning at 137/10 in 2008 and Debussy winning at 11/1 last year.
Favourites (3-5-10) show a level stakes loss of 2.30 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5
•    Run 2 to 5 times this year
•    Finished in the first 4 in a group 1 or 2 last time out
•    Ran in the past 45 days
•    Won over 1M 2F+
•    Won a group 1
•    Ran in the Manhattan Handicap and/or Sheema Classic
•    Trained in Europe & ran at 2011 Dubai Carnival
•    Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Christophe Clement