Forums
Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
view profile

Blog Archive

6 people are following this blog
Racecaller's Blog
The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 10 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and two years ago the mighty Sea The Stars. Last year's winner, Workforce, will be attempting to become the first horse since Alleged in 1978 to win back to back runnings of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-9-66
4yo: 2-6-55
5yo: 1-1-20
6yo+: 0-4-13
3yos (7-9-66) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-11-88).

Pedigree
8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7. The 2 exceptions were sired by horses with stamina index of 11.6-11.7.
Surprisingly the recent trend has been towards horses with more speed in their pedigree, the last 5 winners’ sires had stamina indexes ranging from 8.2 to 9.2.

Gender
Fillies & mares (1-4-25) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 25 runners.
Unsurprising female 3yos (1-3-12) have a much better record than those aged 4+ (0-1-13).
The only female winner was the exceptional Zarakava, who had won all 6 of her previous starts, 4 group 1’s including the French 1000 Guineas, French Oaks and Prix Vermeille.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their races that season
6 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions had yet to run at Longchamp)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (2 exceptions had been placed on only start over 1M 4F, in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 190K
10 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race
4 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (one exception was unraced as 2yo, other two won maiden only start at 2)

Arc Trials
Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 4210115534 (3-2-10)
Prix Vermielle winner (Galikova): 2617 (1-1-4)
Prix Foy winner (Sarafina): 76907800 (0-0-8)
4 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 1311
Horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 94204100111853538d74 (4-3-19)
Horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 02076107503 (1-1-10)
Horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 07976907484297000002 (0-2-20)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Workforce): 33 (0-2-2)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (So You Think): 3110 (2-1-4)
Grand Prix de Paris winner (Meandre): 101834 (2-1-6)
Previous season's Prix Des Chenes winner (French Navy): 114 (2-0-3)
Prix de Diane winner (Golden Lilac): 27172 (1-2-5)
Prix Du Jockey winner (Reliable Man): 921050 (1-1-6)
Irish Derby winner (Treasure Beach): 301560 (1-1-6)
Prix Ganay winner (Planteur): 603170 (1-1-6)
Eclipse winner (So You Think): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Du Lys winner (Kreem): 401 (1-0-3)
Grosser Preis Von Berlin winner (Danedream): 010 (1-0-3)
King George winner (Nathaniel): 4174 (1-0-4)
Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 19800 (1-0-5)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Sarafina): 9220 (0-2-4)
Prix Saint-Alary winner (Wavering): 73 (0-1-2)
Tenno Sho Spring winner (Hiruno D'Amour): 03d (0-1-2)
Prix Corrida winner (Sarafina): 270 (0-1-3)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 09735 (0-1-5)
Prix Noailles winner (Grand Vent): 959d (0-0-3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 6475 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 1321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 15
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 21
2 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 2) ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French Derby, finishing 12
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 11

Trainers
French-trained horses: 5-10-73
British-trained horses: 3-5-38
Irish-trained horses: 2-3-25
German-trained horses: 0-1-8
Japanese-trained horses: 0-2-6
Other: 0-0-4
Andre Fabre (2-4-15), Alain de Royer-Dupre (2-2-11) and Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-6) have each trained 2 winners of this in the past 10 years.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-18) has only won the race once from 18 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-3-9.
Jonathan Pease (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2001 while Michael Stoute (1-0-10) won the race last year with Workforce.
Mick Channon (0-3-5) has saddled Youmzain to finish 2nd three times. Elle Lellouche (0-2-10) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers.

Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)
Horses drawn bottom half: 7-11-76
Horses drawn top half: 2-7-70
Only Dalakhani and Sakhee have been able to win from the top half of the draw. In general a lower draw is preferable.

Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were held up in midfield or rear
The recent trend has been towards hold up horses that have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 16/1 (158/10) but the other 9 winners were all priced 10/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.74.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    3yo who won a group 1 as a 2yo (or were unbeaten at 2)
•    Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2 to 10.7
•    Won last time out in last 50 days
•    Won a group 1 race worth 190K+
•    Won over 1M 4F
•    Course winner (or having first run here)
•    Having first start in the race
•    Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel and/or Judmonte Int’l
•    Irish Champion Stales or Grand Prix de Paris winner
•    From first 4 in the betting
•    Trained by Fabre, Pease, Bin Suroor or de Royer-Dupre
•    Drawn in bottom half of the stalls
•    Hold-up horse
Rate post:
4.1 (2 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 3696 views ]
www.betfair.com