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Racecaller's Blog
The group 1 Qatar Prix Du Cadran takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October on the supporting card to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Run over 2M 4F it is one of the major races on the calendar for the top class European stayers.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-5-27
5yo: 3-2-25
6yo: 2-4-16
7yo: 2-3-17
8yo+: 0-4-12
4 & 5yos (6-7-52) have a slightly better record than horses aged 6+ (4-11-45) but no strong trends on the ages of winners.

Gender
Fillies/mares (0-2-9) have gained 2 places from 9 runners since 2001. The last female winner of the Cadran was Molesnes in 1994.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in the last 30 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (1 exception was 2nd on only start over 2M & other had won over 1M 6F and was having first try over 2M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
Only 2 of 10 winners had won a group 1
5 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
7 of 7 French-trained winners had previous start at Longchamp

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Gentoo): 3146 (1-1-4)
Prix Gladiateur winner (Ley Hunter): 831132421 (3-3-9)
Prix Du Carrousel winner (Terre du Vent): 22217 (1-3-5)
Previous season's Prix Chaudenay winner (Celtic Celeb): 12 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Cesarewitch winner (Aaim To Prosper): 1 (1-0-1)
Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 15 (1-0-2)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Fame And Glory): 351 (1-0-3)
Prix Royal Oak winner (Gentoo): 163 (1-0-3)
Prix De Barbeville winner (Dunaden): 1508 (1-0-4)
Prix La Moskowa winner (Shamanova): 223 (0-3-3)
Prix De Reux winner (Americain): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix Vicomtesse Vigier winner (Brigantin): 872 (0-1-3)
Prix Right Royal winner (Kasbah Bliss): 5308 (0-1-4)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Fame And Glory): 46353 (0-1-5)
Oleander-Rennen winner (Tres Rock Danon): 069 (0-0-3)
Goodwood Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 865 (0-0-3)
6 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Prix Gladieteur last time, finishing 211321
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 5253
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Kergolay, finishing 224
3 of 7 French-trained winners ran in the Prix de Barbeville, finishing 412
2 of 7 French-trained winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 95
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Goodwood Cup, finishing 24
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in the Lonsdale Cup, finishing 51
2 of 2 British-trained winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 31

Trainers
French-trained runners: 7-14-63
British-trained runners: 2-3-21
Irish-trained runners: 1-1-7
Other: 0-0-4
John Dunlop (1-1-2) has a superb record in the race, gaining 2 wins and a place from his 3 runners since 2000.
Alain Lyon (1-0-1) trained Gentoo to win this last year. Andre Fabre (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this in past 10 years.
Alain Royer-Dupre (0-2-4) and Francois Doumen (0-2-6) have each saddled 2 placed finishers since 2001.

Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 4 in the betting
The last 9 winners all went off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.76.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Finished in the first 3 last time in past 30 days
•    Has run at least 4 times this year
•    Won a listed or a group race
•    Won over 2M+
•    Course winner (or having first run at Longchamp)
•    Finished in first 3 in the Prix Gladiateur last time
•    First 5 in the Ascot Gold Cup, Prix De Barbeville or Kergolay
•    Trained in France or by John Dunlop
•    From first 4 in the betting
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