Racecaller08

The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the most valuable race to be run at Ripon all season and it takes place this Saturday, 13th August. It is run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older it is always a very hotly contested handicap, the winning distance for the last 4 years has been a neck or shorter.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-2-8
4yo: 4-8-55
5yo: 2-10-53
6yo: 2-4-36
7yo: 2-5-28
8yo+: 0-1-25
No very strong trends on age, obviously 10 of 10 winners have been aged 4 to 7, though they represented almost 84% of the total runners.
Horses aged 8+ have a very poor record of 0 wins & 1 place from 25 runners.
The last winning 3yo was Pipalong in 1999; she went on to win at group 1 level.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-4-26
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-59
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-13-95
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-3-25
Higher weights have held the edge in recent years with the last 5 winners carrying 8-10 to 9-6.
Top Weight: 040000000720 (0-2-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 101 or higher: 0-3-19
Horses rated 91 to 100: 7-11-92
Horses rated 90 or less: 3-16-94
7 of the last 8 winners (last 5) were officially rated between 91 and 100.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions were placed on last 2 runs and placed in Stewards Cup last time out)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in past 20 days
10 of 10 winners had won over at least 6 furlongs
9 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Damika): 6030 (0-1-4)
Stoneacre Ford Handicap winner (Mon Brav): 8021 (1-1-4)
Armstrong Memorial Handicap  winner (Pepper Lane): 0240040 (0-3-7)
Bet On Live Tennis At totesport.com Handicap winner (Norville): 2 (0-1-1)
Directors Cup winner (Addictive Dream): 2 (0-1-1)
Totescoop6 Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 30 (0-1-2)
Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Handicap (Novellan Lad): 04 (0-1-2)
Ayr Silver Cup winner (Colonel Mak): 50 (0-0-2)
Scottish Stewards' Cup winner (Quest For Success): 500 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0404
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham, finishing 04
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 86
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Steward's Cup, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in the RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 10

Trainers
Dandy Nicholls (2-9-34) has done really well with his runners in this race in past 7 years. Since 2004 he has had 2 winners and 9 more placed from just 23 runners. Adrian Nicholls’ last 5 rides in the race have supplied a winner and 4 places (all on Dandy Nicholls runners, he will likely be on the stable first string).
David Evans (1-0-1) won the race in 2003 while Richard Whitaker (1-0-2) saddled Damika to win it last year.
Mick Channon (0-4-11), Tim Easterby (0-2-13) and Kevin Ryan (0-2-17) have all gained multiple places in the past 10 years though they have saddled numerous runners.
Mark Johnston (0-0-3) and Richard Fahey (0-0-11) are two of the most successful trainers at Ripon but both have failed to saddle a runner in the frame in this since 2000.

Draw (stats updated for stalls reordering)
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 9-19-100
Horses drawn 11 or higher: 1-11-105
Horses drawn low have a big advantage with no winner coming from higher than stall 11 in past 10 years.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off between 8/1 & 20/1
The only 2 winners to win outside the 8/1 to 20/1 band were the two winning favourites.
Favourites (2-3-10) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 1.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 to 7
•    Carrying 8-10 to 9-6
•    Officially rated 91 to 100
•    Run at least 3 times this season
•    Won a race this season (or placed in Steward’s Cup)
•    Ran in last 20 days in class 3 or higher
•    Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time out
•    Won over 6F or further
•    Drawn 1 to 10
•    Trained by Dandy Nicholls (and ridden by Adrian Nicholls)