Racecaller08

The Phoenix Stakes is the first group 1 race for 2yos run in Britain and Ireland this year. It takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 7th August. The race was formerly run at the now-closed Phoenix Park and then at Leopardstown but was moved to its current home following the loss of the straight 6 furlong track at Leopardstown. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the race in recent times, winning 11 of the last 13 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yos

Gender
Fillies (2-3-20) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race from approximately 27% of the total runners. The two female winners were the only two non-O’Brien-trained winners in the past decade. Both finished in the first 2 in the Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint at Naas.

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were born before 1st April
10 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 7.6 to 9.2
8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (both exceptions' sires were 2nd in a group 1)
6 of 10 winners (last 3) were sired by Danehill or a son of Danehill

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions placed in listed/group race)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times (exception was unbeaten in 2 starts)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) had won over CD (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first run at the track, other exception was 2nd in a group 3 over CD only previous run here)
6 of 10 winners (last 6) won their maiden at Curragh or Leopardstown
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions had finished 2nd in a group race)

Other Races
Railway Stakes winner (Lilbourne Lad): 91111 (4-0-5)
Alfred Nobel EBF Maiden winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Leopardstown 6F EBF Maiden winner (Parish Hall): 51 (1-0-2)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 332223 (0-3-6)
Marble Hill Stakes winner (Power): 2355 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 1111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Anglesey Stakes, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry, finishing 906
2 of 2 winning fillies ran in Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint, finishing 12
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (3 Coventry, 1 Norfolk, 1 Queen Mary)

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (8-6-28) has trained 8 of the last 10 winners, his runners have accounted for only 37.8% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 7-1-10.
Jim Bolger (1-1-4) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year that has trained the winner in the past decade. His last 2 representatives were a 25/1 winner in 2007 and a 12/1 runner-up last year.
Kevin Prendergast (0-1-11) has not done so well in this race, gaining no wins and just 1 place from 11 runners since 2001.
British trained runners (0-3-11) have failed to win the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for 4 favourites in that time. The last winner to be trained abroad was Princely Heir, in 1997, for Mark Johnston.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 4/1 or below
There have been 2 shocks in this race in the past 10 years, with Spartacus 16/1 in 2002 and Saoirse Abu 25/1 in 2007, both fillies, landing this prize. All other winners came from the first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.70.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

•    Born before 01/04/2009
•    Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 7.6 to 9.2
•    Ideally sired by a son of Danehill
•    Had 3 to 5 career starts
•    Won last time out (or placed in a group race)
•    Posted highest RPR last time
•    Won a group race over 6F or 7F
•    Won over CD (or having first course start)
•    Ran at Royal Ascot (either won a race or unplaced in Coventry)
•    Won Railway Stakes
•    Trained by Aidan O’Brien
•    From first 3 in the betting