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Marerfield by-election Market

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Replies: 538
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 14:18
The difference is is that Farage is pragmatic and in it for himself and Lowe is deluded?  I could go along with that being a difference
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 14:51
You should listen to the 'Farage On The Record' broadcast. Yes it was one of the very few mainstream chats where the host wasn't trying for gotachas, it was more of a life story type thing. As obviously the neutral bbc wouldn't have him on their version on the show.

(fyi, you'll identify that you are talking a load of cobblers).

The whole concept is absolutely daft anyway, that politicians are meant to be altruistic. It's in the job description to be self promoting. Due you think that the 'king of the north' isn't in it for himself?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 14:53
Or crackpot Dave polanski?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 14:55
Or barnacle starmer?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 14:55
Or the red queen?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 14:55
Or red ed?
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 15:53
There are levels.  As politicians go Farage is an elite in it for himself guy.  Well ahead of the rest of the field in UK politics.  Starmer has let power go to his head.  If you watched that link I've given, you might understand why and how.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 15:59
Musk used to be a decent fellow, until power and probably his trans child corrupted him.  Trump always been a nasty individual.  He's just ratcheted up the nastiness and is in a league of his own in the West.  Farage is some way off both, but leads the UK field.

It's a common tactic by corrupt individuals to say everyone is at it.  It's BS
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 16:08
I'd have Starmer below Theresa May David Cameron and Rishi Sunak but well above Johnson and Liz Truss in the in it for himself stakes.  Farage below Johnson but above Truss
By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 16:38
Has anyone in history made more money than Blair, after leaving the job?
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 16:39
How long has the country voted to eradicate immigration?



err, never


I know we like to think everyone's forgotten and then just make things up that suit our preferred narrative but the UK has never voted in a party whose manifesto said it would eradicate immigration. At least not in my lifetime.
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 16:50
For several manifestos it was 10s of thousands (arguing that some highly skilled immigrants are a benefit).

Then Brexit (biggest vote ever)

Then the Brexit election (biggest majority for many years).

Then 1 million+ immigrants within a year Plain

What do you do when you repeatedly win the argument, win the vote, and the people elected specificially on that mandate either ignore it, or do the complete opposite?
By:
RacingCert
When: 18 Jun 26 16:53
On my journey through the constituency this morning I spotted 3 labour posters and 18 reform.
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 16:54
I think people aren't that stupid as it goes, none of the traditional parties are going to stop importing people. Whatever they may promise.

Of course, eventually there will be so many imported people that the politicians won't have to bother lying, the liberalists will be elected by default. See London, Brum, Leicester et al.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 16:59

Jun 18, 2026 -- 4:50PM, Cider wrote:


For several manifestos it was 10s of thousands (arguing that some highly skilled immigrants are a benefit).Then Brexit (biggest vote ever)Then the Brexit election (biggest majority for many years).Then 1 million+ immigrants within a year What do you do when you repeatedly win the argument, win the vote, and the people elected specificially on that mandate either ignore it, or do the complete opposite?


A correction. Progress.

By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 17:04
PorcupineorPineapple 18 Jun 26 16:39 
How long has the country voted to eradicate immigration?



err, never

........................

None so blind.............................
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Jun 26 17:14
Andy Burnham has been reported to the police over an alleged breach of lockdown rules. Laugh
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Jun 26 17:17
The claim is said to centre around the number of teenagers present at a property when the fire service arrived to tackle a blaze on the in the early hours of June 10, 2021.

As firefighters put out the inferno, the teenagers were collected - apparently by their families, they said.

was there any Cake ?
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 17:24

Jun 18, 2026 -- 5:04PM, saddo wrote:


PorcupineorPineapple 18 Jun 26 16:39

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 17:24
Saddo,

The floor is yours. Do please feel free to prove me wrong.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 17:26
I've got my biggest liability since Trump to win by a landslide in the 2021 Presidential election on this market.  Only the spectre of AC's preventing it being bigger.  Third biggest ever after that and Le Pen in 2017 or 18.
By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 17:29
PorcupineorPineapple 18 Jun 26 17:24 
Saddo,

The floor is yours. Do please feel free to prove me wrong.

........................

A difficult ask without writing to millions, how about you prove yourself correct?
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 17:36
It was 2020 not 2021, but it dragged on for so long that it felt like 2021.

USA deported lots of English and Irish immigrants in the 19th century.  Often on the boat they arrived on
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 17:43
Presumably that is laying restore. Effectively free money but I couldn't be ar$$ed. I'm +10p labour, but no liability Laugh
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 17:44

Jun 18, 2026 -- 5:29PM, saddo wrote:


PorcupineorPineapple 18 Jun 26 17:24

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 17:45
Saddo,

Let google be your friend. If you find one winning GE manifesto from the last twenty years or so promising to eradicate immigration I'll be all apologies.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Jun 26 20:00
These lockdown accusations could be massive , If charged would he be able to run for PM ?
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Jun 26 20:48
Sir Shameless is devoid of embarrassment. He knows he's going to be discharged from his office (forcefully) yet he's offering Mr Burnham who he'd refused permission to run in an earlier by-election a seat on his Cabinet post Makerfield.

How gracious Sir Shameless! He and his side-kick the Chancellor Ms Reeves will be history very soon.
By:
lux
When: 18 Jun 26 21:00


Somebody just took everything on Restore from 100 down to 40.

Now drifting back out again.
By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 21:03
He is trying everything he can to stay, no matter how much ridicule he gets.
Is there something worse than ridicule awaiting him when he's out of the door?
It really is a puzzle.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Jun 26 21:04
Sir Shameless will be praying that Burnham is at least investigated , Could buy him a couple of months
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 21:12
on the telegraph pod, Farage said he would be a seller at 7% for restore. and they will get their highest ever % in a by election. essentially close, in a losing race. a note of caution perhaps that his bit was recorded before today
By:
Cider
When: 18 Jun 26 21:13
good luck with your bets, i've closed my positions, won't be waiting up for this one
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Jun 26 01:07
Voter turn out 58%
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Jun 26 01:10
Watching the (only) restore bloke on GBnews....

Another posh, privately educated silver spoon type.
By:
Escapee
When: 19 Jun 26 01:39
The market is confident Burnham has it


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £2,152,161 Matched   



              103.2%   98.8%             
Labour    - 1.01 1.02   1.03   1.04   1.05   £1,360,891
            £10,229 £213     £123 £217 £397  
Reform    16 22 24   75   80   770   £345,097
        £11 £2 £3     £3 £2 £2  
Restore Britain    120 130 150   250   270   290   £442,287
        £9 £6 £1     £10 £1 £1  
Green    420 430 1000   -   -   -   £3,271
        £1 £2 £277              
Conservative    220 300 1000   -   -   -   £363
        £1 £10 £449              
Liberal Democrats    6 220 1000   -   -   -   £251
        £100 £1 £458              
By:
keyboard_line
When: 19 Jun 26 02:32
friendly handshake with binface and burnham on walk on
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 19 Jun 26 03:15
Polls got Restore spot on but heavily underestimated Burnham

54.8%
34.5%
6.8%

On my figures

Tories comfortably beat Greens and Lib Dems
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 19 Jun 26 07:36
Bloody hell.


That wasn't even close. Two by-elections now where there was talk of tactical voting to defeat Reform, and not needed either time.
By:
A_T
When: 19 Jun 26 10:19
Labour crush the right wing - much more than predicted. The electorate see Labour as a safe pair of hands - keeping out the extremists. Starmer obv an issue but unlikely he'll fight another GE.
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