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Marerfield by-election Market

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Replies: 538
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 09:37
Sarah Pochin is doing the media for Reform on Makerfield election night. Seems that they aren't too hopeful.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 10:12
Bloody hell, Labour's odds have come in a fair bit since I last checked.
By:
rothko
When: 17 Jun 26 11:07
Great a labour leadership battle - just what the country needs
Then presumably into a general election given if Burnham wins he wouldnt want to be constrained by a manifesto he had no input into and the legitimacy argument and pressure he would be put under like Theresa May
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 17 Jun 26 11:11
Sir Keir Starmer has warned Andy Burnham against launching an immediate challenge to his leadership if he becomes an MP, urging him, and the party, to focus instead on the election for a new Greater Manchester mayor. Laugh
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 11:11
No chance of an election imo. (Though we are definitely getting 12 months of cry@rsing from the right wingers and their loyal parrots for one)
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 11:17
10 years since the brexit vote was won, so a very long way to go to meet the salt from those losers (still salty)
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 17 Jun 26 11:22
Speaking from the G7 summit, the prime minister said a leadership contest would be a "bad thing" for the country and reiterated that he intended to fight any challenge.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 17 Jun 26 11:24
He will have to be carted out of Number Ten
By:
rothko
When: 17 Jun 26 11:44
I suppose the thing that goes against an election is that a lot of labour MPs will lose their seats

But if Burnham wins he has a massive job in uniting the party with Starmer sitting on the back benches

He is hamstrung by the pledges in the manifesto particularly on tax. I think he has said he will stick to the fiscal rules so no money to do anything new as he wont tackle the welfare bill

The future for the country looks rosy
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 11:50
They'll just do what rachel from accounts did, and create new rules.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 12:01
I think the party is pretty united behind Burham. At least at this stage. Even if someone like Streeting has a go, he's said nice things about him and doesn't want to burn any bridges. Seems pretty common. Basically they've concocted this daft coronation process because everyone from the MPs to the members to the electorate have overwhelmingly decided they prefer him.

I've said before Starmer should be offered Foreign Sec or something similar. He's very skilled in that area and has made some great relationships. I'd also offer Corbyn a place back fwiw and still offer ministerial seats to right wingers like Streeting and Carns. Just get the message across that Labour is a broad church.

As for tax, it's an opportunity to maybe change though the Lords could well say no. Either way, he's just got to get on with it. Hopefully the fact that he's a far better communicator than Starmer and has a lot of experience of running a government (though on a much smaller scale) means he'll be able to deliver a plan.
By:
ALIEN SEX FIEND
When: 17 Jun 26 12:18
Maybe wrong place to put this, next election, Restore 15 to win most seats next election? I thought nearer 500, are they that popular, I do not know anybody who mentions them, this is not a wind up, maybe as I have taken early retirement I am getting out of touch.
By:
rothko
When: 17 Jun 26 12:49
there is no way Starmer would accept a cabinet post after being PM
Surely he has more self respect than that
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 13:12
Dunno.

I'd say you're probably right but then Cameron came back (after a gap). Sunak is still a constituency MP when we all thought he'd be well in Silicon Valley by now. Miliband stuck around and seems happy enough. I imagine foreign office with the state of the world at present is still a very prestigious role and he might just say yes (out of service to the country etc etc).
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 13:33
It's s bit different if the current manager displaced you. But Starmer is uniquely shameless.
By:
rothko
When: 17 Jun 26 13:34
i couldnt see him working for the man who ousted him - imagine the cabinet meetings with Starmer having to sit there meekly listening to the new boss

Milliband and Sunak stuck around as back bench MPs which I imagine Starmer would do until the election
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 13:41
Would defeat the whole purpose of the project anyway. They will be trying to portray it as a new brand new government, far removed from the current sh111t show.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 14:02
I'd certainly back him to walk away if give Evs, but I don't think he'd be a rank outsider to take another position.




And since when are they portraying it as a brand new government? Doesn't feel like there'll be wholesale changes apart from PM. There'll be a re-shuffle of some sort, but it feels mostly like the same pieces being moved to different places rather than a full on out with the old.
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 14:10
It's politics isn't it. They won't be swept out, but demoted or operating in the background. Won't be many left this time next year. Red ed won't be going anywhere, likely promoted.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 17 Jun 26 14:18
It'll be the same faces mostly. Healey will be back in defence. Carns will be back. Streeting. Rayner. Miliband. Mahmoud. Reeves. They'll all still be there.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 17 Jun 26 14:19
Surely he has more self respect than that  Laugh

where u been the past year Roth ?
By:
rothko
When: 17 Jun 26 15:04
Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 19:01
The BBC has been slammed after it emerged two asylum seekers who appeared on an episode of Question Time had been coached by 'charity' campaigners.

In the episode, filmed on December 5 in Dover, the audience featured two men who had crossed the Channel in small boats.

The BBC previously told GB News that all those on the panel were informed "the day before the show that there would be people in the audience who had been through the asylum system".

Now, it has been revealed the two men were placed in the audience and coached beforehand by the migration support 'charity' Imix.

One of the asylum seekers featured in the programme was Ashraf, an Afghan national who crossed the Channel.

He told the panel he arrived in the UK around five year ago after trying to seek sanctuary in Turkey, Macedonia, Serbia, Romania, Austria and Germany, adding he left Afghanistan because it "is not safe".

Later on in the programme, host Fiona Bruce introduced an Iranian man in the audience named only as Alireza, who read a statement from his phone, arguing that leaving the Refugee Convention would be harmful to the rights of British people, not just refugees.

Their appearance was overseen by Imix’s Chief Executive Jenni Regan who was also on the show and was selected to ask a question, reports The Telegraph.

Ms Regan, who also volunteers with the RNLI in the Channel Laugh, later said appearing on Question Time was a daunting experience. She added: "Dover is not a particularly multicultural area" and she was therefore "conscious that many in the audience might hold anti-migrant views".

A Reform UK spokesman said: "It is no surprise that the Question Time: Immigration Special sparked so many complaints. The programme represented a clear failure of impartiality, editorial judgment and audience selection by the BBC.

"We are seeing an increasingly blatant pattern of bias and prejudice from the taxpayer-funded broadcaster.

"The question remains as to why did the BBC think it was appropriate to give a national platform to men who entered Britain illegally, allowing them to lecture the British public and attempt to manipulate opinion on the immigration crisis?"

In the episode, Reform UK's Zia Yusuf told Ashraf he would be deported if Mr Farage becomes the Prime Minister.

When Ms Bruce asked Mr Yusuf if migrants such as Ashraf would be deported under a potential Reform government, he replied: "I don’t know enough about that particular story.

"In terms of broad strokes, if you are entering from a war zone, it is generally women and children first and the vast majority of the people coming to this country, via the English Channel, illegally, are men."

A spokesman from the BBC told GB News Imix was one of a number of organisations contacted before filming, with producers saying they want to "find audience members that could give different perspectives on the debate about immigration in the UK".
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 19:06
sorry for being divisive Plain
By:
Escapee
When: 17 Jun 26 19:17
Didn't hear you moaning when they did the same and planted pro brexit, or pro reform people in the audience.

The producers are tasked with making a programme where opposing views are voiced, they are not going to leave it to
chance that the audience randomly comprises of people with opposing and or unpopular views.
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 26 20:29
Did they, what's the evidence of that?

It's obviously been self evident for years that qt has been r i g g e d to propagandise the liberalist narrative.

It (the bbc) tries to have a veneer of impartiality, but the actual truth is rather different.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 17 Jun 26 21:07
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17647208.bbc-question-time-defends-audience-selection-process-following-bias-complaints/

The BBC has defended its vetting process for Question Time after a former Conservative MSP and a number of councillors appeared as part of the show's audience in Elgin.

Mary Scanlon, who served as a Conservative MSP for over a decade, appeared on the show, as a member of the audience.

Viewers took to social media after spotting Scanlon alongside a number of Conservative councillors.

Responding to the criticism over the audience selection, a spokesperson for the BBC said: “Question Time does not bar people from its audience because they have held elected office or are political activists.

There is a selection process to ensure a range of views are heard and last night’s QT audience included supporters of different political parties, including the SNP.”

The SNP MP Stewart McDonald was quick to point out that the MSP was part of the crowd tweeting “Why is former Tory MSP Mary Scanlon – 1999 to 2016 – pretending to be an audience punter on #BBCQT?”

Tory MSP Edward Mountain, replying to McDonald, said: "I think, as she is no longer an MSP, that she is just a voter. I also know she will have been through the audience vetting process."

MSP Jenny Gilruth asked: “Why is Mary Scanlon, former Tory MSP, being allowed to ask questions as if she’s a normal punter on #BBCQT? Outrageous.


i remember seeing a left winger on twitter complaining that a tory councillor was repeatedly in the bbc audience.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/is-question-time-s-audience-producer-really-fascist/ - wow, trying to recruit audience members from the edl but not the local conservative party. and even more left wing bias Crazy - a person who recruits the audience sharing and liking posts from britain first.


the bbc get it in the neck from all sides about audience selection.
By:
saddo
When: 17 Jun 26 21:59
Fran Unsworth used to run BBC news, she'll tell you about their 'world view'
if you can be bothered.
By:
Escapee
When: 18 Jun 26 10:48
Today's the day.


The market is pretty certain Burnham wins



UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £1,899,302 Matched   



              101.3%   98.7%             
Labour    1.1 1.11 1.12   1.13   1.14   1.15   £1,140,594
        £132 £395 £1,896     £934 £607 £1,476  
Reform    9.4 9.8 10   11.5   13   13.5   £325,228
        £87 £7 £98     £100 £100 £10  
Restore Britain    50 55 60   65   75   190   £429,609
        £208 £263 £3     £15 £33 £1  
Green    420 430 1000   -   -   -   £3,263
        £1 £3 £269              
Conservative    220 300 1000   -   -   -   £359
        £1 £10 £429              
Liberal Democrats    5 220 1000   -   -   -   £249
        £5,000 £1 £438              
By:
Escapee
When: 18 Jun 26 10:55
I'm rooting for less than 10% Restore vote, less than 5% would be best for my book.


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield - Restore Britain Vote Percentage        
9 Runners            £66,900 Matched   



              118.4%   91.3%             
Less than 5%    5 5.1 5.2   7.6   8.8   9   £14,126
        £5 £6 £7     £25 £3 £43  
5-9.99%    1.57 1.83 1.84   1.9   2.28   2.36   £23,486
        £11 £51 £10     £100 £100 £50  
10-14.99%    4 4.1 4.2   8   19   990   £11,929
        £80 £8 £9     £35 £10 £2  
15-19.99%    9.6 10 11   13   15   17   £6,286
        £50 £55 £22     £9 £1 £4  
20-24.99%    15.5 16 16.5   34   44   46   £4,897
        £1 £20 £10     £1 £2 £1  
25-29.99%    26 27 28   85   120   940   £2,713
        £1 £26 £51     £1 £5 £2  
30-34.99%    90 100 110   160   770   -   £1,407
        £3 £10 £5     £2 £1      
35-39.99%    120 140 150   340   450   980   £865
        £10 £1 £5     £1 £2 £2  
40% or more    90 130 140   330   950   1000   £1,192
        £1 £1 £2     £1 £1 £2  
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 11:51
The vibe on the ground must be very +ve.

Imagine Labour have thrown everything at this election as defeat would be disastrous.
By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 12:14
I don't see how Labour can possibly lose. I think this is more about
the beginning of restore overtaking reform in the next 3 years.
By:
Escapee
When: 18 Jun 26 12:29
@saddo, what is the difference between reform and restore?
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 12:33
Conspiracy nutjobs have found a home in Restore.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 12:36
Escapee Reform are followed by normal people.  Restore are followed by crazy people.  That's one big difference.  The other big one is mass deportations.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 12:38
Economic policy aside from that I imagine is broadly similar.  Tax multi millionaires less
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 26 12:46

Jun 18, 2026 -- 12:29PM, Escapee wrote:


@saddo, what is the difference between reform and restore?


Elon's algorithm

By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 18 Jun 26 12:59
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fchrqBL-8B0&t=1471s

Elon Musk before and after
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Jun 26 13:25
I wonder when the leadership challenge will start ? hopefully Starmer shifted ASAP, every Cloud
By:
saddo
When: 18 Jun 26 13:43
Escapee 18 Jun 26 12:29 
@saddo, what is the difference between reform and restore?

................................

One is run by someone who wants to save the country,
Farage has recently hinted at stepping down I think.
People need a choice of real change, or more of the same.
There isn't room for both parties at the next GE, Farage
made a blunder causing the emergence of an opposing party.
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