Politics
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 538 comments are related to the topic:
Marerfield by-election Market
Marerfield by-election Market
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 538
|
By:
If you have 700 canvassers on any given day, who are reasonably well organised, you can speak to thousands of potential voters, possibly tens of thousands.
|
|
By:
Tories preferring labour over Reform is hardly an astonishing revelation. As I stated previously, plenty of Tories preferred Labour to certain people running their own party. The establishment want to protect the establishment, quelle surprise.
|
|
By:
Would be pretty interesting actually to see current Tories polled to see which party they would be affiliated with if the Tories disbanded. I reckon Reform would be at least third, behind labour and lib dum.
|
|
By:
Long term, farage benefits from having a more extreme right wing
group, but needs to pitch his tent correctly. Bad Enoch doing a good job of streaking out her ground at the moment. Looking almost electable if she keeps the bullying tendencies buried. But may suffer short term here. |
|
By:
Steaking not Steaking
|
|
By:
Tories preferring labour over Reform is hardly an astonishing revelation. As I stated previously, plenty of Tories preferred Labour to certain people running their own party. The establishment want to protect the establishment, quelle surprise.
In interesting news, right wingers in Wigan are now the establishment apparently. |
|
By:
Tory MPs that were canvassing at the weekend
|
|
By:
Not like they are liars or anything. Why on earth would Tory MPs be wasting time canvassing in Makerfield. Try and save the deposit for CCHQ
 The legacy narrative since campaigning started is to make out that voting for reform is a waste of time, ie to make it a fait accompli for the 'king of the north'. That's why there is such a big noise around restore in my opinion. The daily t were at it last week. |
|
By:
How come there's always a conspiracy to explain any lack of total support for reform? Must be exhausting.
|
|
By:
What makes you say that there's a 'lack of total support for reform?'
Surely you are not naïve enough to think that the narrative isn't used to try and influence the actual voting ? |
|
By:
I'm saying you always have some "they're lying" to explain why people may not vote Reform, rather than just accept that a lot of voters simply don't like Farage, Jenrick et al.
|
|
By:
I think a narrative of some canvassers "leaking" to a poster on an obscure and literally-visited-by-a-dozen-people betting forum isn't as compelling as you'd like it to be.
|
|
By:
I'm not saying people aren't voting for Reform.
If you arrived from Mars, and looked at political discourse, you would be astonished to be informed that Reform have led the national opinion polls for over a year, and just won local elections on a national scale. The constructed narrative is as you put it. 'lack of total support for reform'. So the nudging has certainly worked on your good self. |
|
By:
I think the establishment are desperate for burnham to win this by election, and would do anything to achieve it. I think that was my first comment on the by election, that and they usually get what they want when they try this hard. Nothing has really deviated me from holding that opinion.
|
|
By:
I don't think it's nudging. The narrative is about potentially the next PM. Naturally that's the most important thing. But equally, he's ahead in all of the polls. If he weren't the narrative would be about a Labour implosion, Burnham torching his career, Reform proving their chops etc etc. Unfortunately for your preferred narrative, there's nothing to really back that up. Every time they ask the people of Makerfield, the answer is Burnham no matter which way you ask the question.
|
|
By:
opinion polls in by elections are part of the nudging.
we'll see how successful it is. obviously they impact the market, but they aren't worth a hill of beans in my view. i remember corbyn winning his seat in 2024 after the opinion poll had him losing by double digits. I remember as I opposed the poll. |
|
By:
see, you're doing it again.
Just can't accept that voters prefer someone above the Reform guy. Just refuse to do so, so put it down to nudging instead of theses companies, which all live and die by their reputations, are apparently part of a conspiracy to nudge those voters towards a "successful" outcome of a Labour win. |
|
By:
that makes no sense, there won't be an outcome until Friday am.
both positions are consistent. i expected the blob to do everything in their power to influence the result labour's way. i think that's what happened. due to that being my expectation, i thought labour would edge it. the narrative really ought to be that there shouldn't be a by election at all, the electorate is being manipulated and used in a deeply cynical manoeuvre to get what they believe will be a more favourable prime minister for the labour government. this is also a far more suitable outcome for remaining Tory supporters as they would see labour doing well then be made into a fringe party by reform. It's astonishing really that the westminster and mainstream media blob are prepared to welcome with open arms someone walking into #10, that isn't even currently a mp, and did not participate in the general election as a candidate. |
|
By:
usual crazy conspiracy theories from cider
|
|
By:
He's gone bonkers since he lost his job.
|
|
By:
But your blob includes - by your own admission - the polling companies - all of them - who aren't just asking questions and reporting answers, but are doing so to ensure the narrative that Labour has got it sewn up.
Of course those same polling companies were not in the establishment for all of the national polling or during the local elections which went Reform's way. They've just joined the blob in the last few weeks, which miraculously coincides with maybe Reform not winning. And Reform not winning is down to this blob, not down to the fact that they aren't popular enough. You need to ask yourself if spending so much time online is good for your mental health if I can be straight with you. |
|
By:
You're having laugh aren't you. You think commissioned polls are completely straight down the line
 What I am telling you is that by election polls aren't worth a hill of beans. Usually tiny samples and can be easily tilted, within polling rules. Only one poll counts, the actual vote obviously. Inevitably, they influence the betting markets. And help to create a narrative, whether you like it or not. No I don't think labour will be on 49% (or higher). It's not too long now until we'll find out. |
|
By:
I just this minute googled this. Incredible. These done the poll published for the sunday times (sample 525)
|
|
By:
Thought the prices of the front 2 would be closer if the latest poll is to be believed ...
46% v 41%. ? |
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Similarly, although the Opinium poll was commissioned by two organisations with a clear political viewpoint – Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote – Opinium are a reputable pollster and look to have followed a standard methodology.
Likewise, although some may be tempted to be cynical about the poll giving Labour the largest lead also being from a firm founded by two former Labour staffers.... https://www.markpack.org.uk/176976/makerfield-by-election-polls-convergent-opinium/ |
|
By:
So, just to confirm, if you just arrived from Mars you'd see Reform ahead on a load of opinion polls and this would be a genuine reflection of public sentiment conveyed by reputable companies gauging the public's mood. But in another concentrated case, the same person would see another poll showing Reform not winning, and this would be a sign of those same pollsters being part of an establishment stitch up to play down the popularity of Reform.
cool |
|
By:
Er, no.
Whilst I do doubt the veracity of some national polls, that is completely different as they are not going to influence a general election at this point. It's just not the same, which you well know. If any polling company put labour ahead on national opinion polling, they wouldn't be a polling company for very long! Nobody cares how accurate tiny sampled by election polls are once the result is known. As they are notoriously inaccurate anyway. Whereas a polling company will rely on the predictability of their general election polling. It is mildly amusing though that you appear to think that an organisation called 'StopReformUK.Vote', commissioning an opinion poll in a by election where Reform are considered runners will produce a completely clean report  For the hundredth time, I'm not stating labour won't win the by election. I am stating that the published polling isn't reliable in regard to predicting the actual outcome. You can guess the result of a coin toss and half the time you'll be right, it doesn't mean that you are skilled at predicting the outcome of coin tosses. I have explained what I am pretty confident about, I don't see restore doing as well as the narrative has been trying to portray. And I don't see labour getting 49% (or more). |
|
By:
|
|
By:
yak hunt
Had a lovely holiday in Cyprus and have come back to an absolute cracker of a by election market. First thoughts are in complete agreement with previous posters, a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Restore could easily stop any Reform chances but can't see any value at all in the current market, certainly can't have Labour at around 1.58. |
|
By:
Ahh, so "some" polls are ok. But only at certain times. And only if certain teams are winning.
Oh and can I just point out some basic maths. You can guess the result of a coin toss and half the time you'll be right, it doesn't mean that you are skilled at predicting the outcome of coin tosses. It actually does mean you are skilled at predicting coin tosses. It's not rocket science, but casinos make millions from the monte carlo fallacy where people ignore the rule of coin tosses. |
|
By:
What basic maths are you pointing out? Hopefully it was something that was missed out of my statistics degree, one never stops learning
|
|
By:
I know you are hard of hearing and all, so to reiterate. By election polls aren't worth a hill of beans.
|
|
By:
...this one especially
|
|
By:
We are really missing a top 3 market on this.
|
|
By:
Fair point but I would be very surprised if Restore aren't third.
|
|
By:
Yeah, me too, but could have been some mileage in it over the duration.
And in these polarised elections it's easy for a shock. |
|
By:
Mr manipulator could win some cash
|
|
By:
Having said that, the most recent poll has Restore and Greens tied at 5%, so you never know.
|
|
By:
Reform drifting right out to 6.0+ again, as Labour price shortens.
|