There has been some some weird and wonderful betting on the turnout market which I have found baffling but hopefully has put my book in a very strong place. Why folks backing turnout of 60% and over here do so, beats me.

Was 49 % in the GE  YAK ,would imagine will be below that

Much the same. Any result 55% plus will be a really sore one for me, anything else is good.

I reckon that the true chances of winning are...

Greens 50%
Labour 30%
Reform 20%

If Labour are out of this completely, why is Starmer there today?

Who paid for his jolly in the Maldives?

It's very nice out there, but I doubt he's funding
his jaunt himself.

Wait a few months and he might remember to declare it.

Yes, Nigel is of course correct to swan off to the Maldives sun when there is a vital by election at home. His constituents must be delighted

Topping up his tan is more important than the by election?

He doesn't have to spend thousands (whose thousands?) taking a photographer out for a cheap stunt.


dearly me

*deary



out-pedants the pedant

But it's not gaslighting at all, it's just clues that we use for our betting. Traditionally, party leaders don't waste energy on an election they have little chance of winning. They want to distance themselves from failure and save the money for better fights. Hence the Tories and Lib Dems may as well not bother turning up at all. That Starmer is turning up a couple of days prior is not insignificant. It doesn't mean they're definitely winning, but they've obviously got some polling that suggests they've got a chance, and if they can peel back some of the Green splitters they could maybe do it. Meanwhile, Farage is off doing Farage things while the candidate's (name has vanished from my head) sum total of campaigning seems to be whizzing round an industrial estate on the back of a truck.

Again, this is not saying definites. We don't really know what kind of ground operations they each have for instance. But - for me at least - they are cues to use when deciding to place bets. As it stands, I'm not sticking any money on Labour. I could easily do it as I'm nicely green on the front two, but if the Labour vote does hold up I can only see that letting Reform in instead and I've already got them in the satchel.

I'm late to the party on this by election. While the media seem to be trying to sell us it's a very close run affair between Labour, Reform and the Greens, the betting here tells us something otherwise.

It's ethnically diverse, with around 50% white population, and almost 50% mix of various non whites.

So, the betting is sort of assuming a large enough tactical vote from anti Reform voters, getting behind the Greens, because they view is that Labour is broadly toxic at the moment?

The anti Reformers obviously have to come out and vote. If they do, it's a Green party. If they don't turn out, there is a possibility Reform will sneak it?

Trying to look at this with impartial eyes. If Reform come 2nd but with a strong showing they'll be happy enough, in an area with such a mix? The Greens will present themselves as the next big thing, and the real alternative to Labour, if they can secure it?

Apologies for hijacking the thread.

Several things have occurred since the betting opened which favour greens. Advance running, workers party pulling out, yet another starmer humiliation with Mandy.

It's such a typically strong 'left wing' seat that reform needed Labour to do comparatively well. Reform will chip away from Labour but unlikely to be enough. It's not impossible, and I have all outcomes covered.

The latest Gorton and Denton by-election poll

The Muslim Vote, an influential organisation which urges people to vote on religious lines, endorsed the Greens early in the campaign. The organisation, set up in late 2023, endorsed the four independent candidates who were elected at the 2024 general election on campaigns centred on the war in Gaza. They were Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Ayoub Khan and Iqbal Mohammed.


   Think they have about 30% of the votes. Well pished off with labours stance on Gaza.

There must still be labour voters in the country, believe it or not. Why else are they getting backed in this by election.

The whole way western politics works is due a huge upheaval, we even see it in Trump’s speech lastnight

How can you need more ID to shovel snow than to vote?
Even 86% of Dhimi Dems want voter ID, yet they try and resist it.

Reform voters getting a little over excited.

Even if they were to form the next government they would be facing the same 'real life' problems a Labour or Conservative government would be facing and their 'magic' solutions would be tested to breaking point.


e.g. Nigel hasn't yet explained exactly how he would physically stop or physically return the small boat people. And remember this is Reform's No.1 'policy. It's just hot air.

Does anybody know what the likely timing of the result announcement is?

Thanks.