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Gorton and Denton by-election
Gorton and Denton by-election
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Replies: 537
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With Your Party and the Workers Party not standing and Advance UK standing, very helpful to left wing parties.
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I wonder if greens will pull out of other races, it's really
not in their wider interests to do so. Maybe this, being a by election, is seen as a special case and Advance should surely have done same to help refuk. 300-400 votes could be vital to winning a seat here. |
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Advance UK appear to have picked a very strong local candidate, the exact opposite of the Reform one.
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Quite amusing seeing certain people bigging up the candidate Advance have picked.
Nick Buckley interviewed Nick Griffin for his YT channel recently and thinks he is an amazing guy. More episodes may well follow. He was sacked from the charity he was working for five years ago for his brilliant critique of BLM (now a view most enlightened people agree with). His views on trans issues would give many lefties an attack of the vapours. He has written a number of books including Anglophobia, How i fought back against cancel culture and won, and Feminism : myths, lies and ungratefulness : exploring ground zero of the woke virus. He has also been a regular guest on GB News. He basically makes Matt Goodwin look like Mother Theresa and of course Advance are much further right than Reform are, one of the reasons why Nick left Reform. Btw, Goodwin does have links to Manchester as his family are from there and he also attended Salford university as well as spending 3 years working as a research fellow at Manchester university. |
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I think that's the point, innit
He's not appealing to normal people, but a strong candidate to take votes from the idiots, so hindering refuk, and being local, or perceived to be more local than the refuker may just cost a few vital votes in what appears at this point to be a tight vote. |
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I read that the tiit whispering candidate is pretending to be a working class plasterer
 There's no doubt that the 'workers' party pulling out is a negative for Reform in the seat. A bit of fortune for the backers of the tiit whisperers and plastic plasterers. |
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I see that the refukers are desperate to knock
local working class people. Then Farage says he would plunge kids back into poverty to knock 5p off a pint of beer. |
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Well that is true, he could well take enough votes away from Reform to allow the Greens to win.
He would almost certainly have been Reform's candidate had he remained in the party. He did of course get reinstated a year to the charity that sacked him due in part to the public backlash - he has done an awful lot for the homeless. So he is well liked and respected by many, even those who do not share his politics (zealots apart of course  ). |
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What a farce. Highly likely that the fptp winner might only poll 20% of the constituency electorate. Result? A minority party gets a seat in the house and a vote therein when 80% of the electorate doesn’t want them! And we accept this political system.
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The drawback of fptp is the other way around usually. It's detrimental to parties with a smaller vote, as was clearly the case in 2024.
The alternative is worse. |
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Maybe 35-40% required here to win.
Depends if labour vote totally collapses |
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The advance people fail to acknowledge that to change laws you need to get elected. To get elected, you need to compromise. Reform won't get away with bluffing their way through the election and introducing legislation that wasn't in the manifesto, like Labour have done.
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Refuk need labour vote to hold up then edge a 3 way go
on around 33% Labour under Burnham would easily have polled 40% + and likely seat winners. |
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35-40% of turnout not electorate.
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That would be agreed if manifestos were legally binding. As far I am aware they are not.
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Yeah LH, turnout.
Thats usual currency in these things, but half that for actual vote, as by election often around 50% turnout. Although we could beat that here in a competitive heat. |
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They aren't LH, but convention at least is that the HoL can't block anything that was in the winning manifesto. Reform can't even rely on that convention if they end up winning imo, but it would be a lot harder to push something through that wasn't.
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House of lord cannot stop any legislation
The most they can do is delay it 6 months. |
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Corbyn really putting the knife into Starmer in the Commons debate this afternoon. Not sure how much notice Labour voters take of him these days but it can't help.
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Labour dumped out to double figures. All that margin has gone to the Greens.
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Yes obviously the dynamics have completely changed since the bfex market opened. It's the greens to lose, they are now my better winner.
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Lol
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The value has to swing the other way at some point, ruk becoming a tempting price.
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5.6 ruk, thrown a few shekkels at that
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Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could win the Gorton and Denton by-election as neither Labour nor the Greens has emerged as a “front-runner” for the Left-leaning vote, according to a leading political expert.
Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University, predicted that all three parties could still clinch the seat. Reform could “come through the middle” if the Left vote in the constituency splits evenly, he believes. If this happened it would be a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer, especially given that Labour chiefs blocked Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham from being the party’s by-election candidate. If he had been chosen, Mr Burnham would have been expected to have won the seat but having returned to Parliament he could then have challenged Sir Keir for the Labour leadership and to be Prime Minister. With less than a fortnight to go until the by-election polling day on February 26, Prof Ford explained: “Both Labour leaning and Green leaning voters strongly prefer either party to Reform, and would very likely coalesce behind a Left bloc front-runner, if they knew for sure who that was. “But they can’t, because there isn’t one. “Both parties are therefore furiously posting leaflets into this information vacuum, but by doing so they only thicken the electoral fog of war that impedes their progress.” Labour claims that local electoral history, including the most recent local and general elections, make it obvious that it is the strongest anti-Reform candidate, he added. But the Green Party, under leader Zack Polanski, argue that the Government slumping in the polls and Sir Keir’s “toxicity” among voters, combined with the “Green-friendly demographics” of the seat, with a large number of young people, leave it best positioned to defeat Reform, Prof Ford stressed. “Both claims are plausible. They cannot both be true,” he added. He also emphasised: “The risk for both parties, and the opportunity for the party they and their voters both oppose most, is that tactical co-ordination completely fails. “Different voters believe each party, the larger Left vote splits evenly, and Reform come through the middle. “This, too, is a plausible scenario.” Prof Ford previously predicted that everything would have to go Reform’s way for it to win in the constituency, an area which has been a safe Labour seat for many years. Labour won the Gorton and Denton seat at the 2024 general election with 50.8% of the vote, but this was down on an estimated 67.2% in 2019 after boundary changes are taken into account, as more young people and Muslim voters turn away from the party. Labour MPs who have been campaigning in the constituency have been surprisingly upbeat about how they believe their vote is holding up. But the Greens are also pouring resources into the seat hoping to pull off a shock victory. The by-election was triggered after Andrew Gwynne, who was sacked as a minister and suspended from the Labour Party over offensive messages in a WhatsApp group, resigned as an MP. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/farage-s-reform-could-come-through-middle-to-win-gorton-by-election/ar-AA1WhfmN?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgntpruby&pc=HCTS&cvid=698f218f2f97402398951c5c4616207c&ei=9 |
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I thought I'd banked my cash on this market and was just waiting for collection, but ruk have drifted out too far. It should be bagged for the greens but a few people claiming that Labour support is holding up a bit. Which is what ruk needs.
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surely much worse for labour if the greens win. gives them traction for further contests like this proving they can win and they'll be both be fighting over the same metropolitan big city votes come a general election whereas this is a free hit for reform who will mop up everything outside the big cities and some rural southern seats
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In the medium term, I don't feel it's too significant. The government won't want to lose it of course, but May is make or break with them potentially collapsing in Wales and Scotland.
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This by-election is make or break for Starmer. Lose and it will cause panic on his back benches.
Has Nigel shown his ugly mug yet? |
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It's important starmer doesn't lose to refuk.
Lose to green and a few will be happy to keep him longer. |
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UK - By-Elections - Gorton and Denton - Voter Turnout
bfex market loaded |
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A lot of guessing going on in the seat trading. Greens on the drift again, Labour getting backed. By whom, nobody knows!
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Labour 11/1 again!
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Looks like reform are " staying on late in the day"
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The Labour General Secretary Hollie Ridley seems to see the Gorton by election picture differently to most and thinks it's between her party and Reform.
In an email to campaigners she says "the data we're seeing shows that this is going down to the wire between Labour and Reform. the Greens just aren't in play" She also is quoted as saying " The Green Party are clearly high on the Class A drugs that they want to legalise if they think they are in this race because we know they are not". Either she is privy to information nobody else seems to have or she is simply totally deluded. |
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I wud say totally deluded like the rest of her party.
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They all say that in by elections, elections, etc
They know folk will vote tactically if it benefits them. Everybody needs to big themselves into top 2,in minds of voters. Green and lab playing same game and refuk loving it as it maximises their chances... |
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Only option is to throw campaigners a few crumbs to try and keep them motivated. I can't imagine Labour canvassers are getting much of a warm welcome.
Could be true or made up but it's the only option. |
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The Labour General Secretary Hollie Ridley seems to....
Hollie will be losing her job pretty soon. |
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There have been two opinion polls, the first one not reliable, the second much more so. Both show a tight race for all three main contenders, within margin of error. None of these three should be written off. If one or more of the three look massively bigger odds than published data suggests, they should be backed.
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