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Gorton and Denton by-election
Gorton and Denton by-election
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Replies: 537
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Apparently there were only 51 persons contributing to that Find Out Now "poll", not 143 as originally stated.
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Labour will not win; Sir Shameless will be deposed as leader of his Party and PM. I hope Reform comes unstuck too. I like to see the cheesy grin wipe off Mr Egoistic's face.
Go on Green! |
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The tlt whisperer wants open borders, you'd have
to be mental or a Guardian reader voting for them. |
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It's only a by-election. The impending awful result for Labour can only mean Sir Shameless puts himself before the Party and Country.
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Some of these polls are communicated elsewhere and they go to
log on. Self select polls are worth diddly squat A 143 poll may have some merit if its from a larger poll that has been properly selected and screened. 8% margin is of course a potential 16% in a 2 way go |
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Of course you did, they were 11/4 when you bailed out of your
intuitive lay. Good job they ramped that fake candidate otherwise you intuition could have been costly. |
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Your
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It's on the thread. Not hard.
Cider • January 28, 2026 5:08 PM GMT Otherwise known as not aftertiming. It does set me apart on here to be fair. After backing Labour at around 7s today I laid them at around 2/1. And laying Greens at just over evens I have backed them at 3/1 ish. Can't complain. Copy your live time bets, ie when the prices were available. It won't be difficult ;) |
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The way I see it is that the market will revert to the narrative. So unless something material happens, then it will always make the tiit whisperers fav. So when it overreacted to that opinion poll, it was a very good opportunity. The actual result will be what it will be, but I don't see the market as being a good predictor, personally. I feel the tiit whisperers can win but I don't make it anywhere 50%+. They could easily go pretty short until the real vote opens tho.
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That's what I said, ffs
But you were laying them because your intuition told you they would drift Now they are default favs What made your intuition change |
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I don't see any of your quotes, as expected.
None of my analysis was in regard to trading the market prices. My instinct was the market prices were wrong. When they adjusted toward what I feel is closer to the real chances, in fact overcorrected, I bet accordingly. That was down to the weak opinion poll. It didn't really matter to me why it happened. Your 'of course you did' is dripping with sarcasm. But you also agree that I did back them at 11/4. Make ya mind up  Yes my intuition has given me a position in this market that I can't lose on. A I wrote, can't complain. You appear to be overly concerned with what I am doing, it is pretty odd. |
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Can't see Labour winning.
1. Burnham was popular and has been shafted by Starmer. 2. The Mandelson saga might fly over the heads of most voters but not all. 3. Manchester is basically a left leaning place so will they really go for Reform in a big way? 4. Turnout will be very low. 5. So Green could spring a surprise as a protest vote against Labour and Reform. |
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Labour have no chance. Should be double figures. Big parties just haven't caught on to how quickly the mood can change and people can switch to upstart parties.
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'I'm really upset that Labour didn't select the publicity craven Andy Burnham, so out of frustration I'm going to go for the party whose leader played on the physical insecurities of vulnerable women to part them from their cash, making them think they could change their bodies simply by wishing it would happen'. Righty ho.
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if you keep going on about them, the whole forum will understand just how much you aren't worried about the greens.
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I don't see any of your quotes, as expected...... They are all still there
None of my analysis was in regard to trading the market prices. My instinct was the market prices were wrong. When they adjusted toward what I feel is closer to the real chances, in fact overcorrected, I bet accordingly. That was down to the weak opinion poll. It didn't really matter to me why it happened.... But you traded Your 'of course you did' is dripping with sarcasm. But you also agree that I did back them at 11/4. Make ya mind up Grin.... No sarcasm at all, I've previously said you called the drift and that's still there too Yes my intuition has given me a position in this market that I can't lose on. A I wrote, can't complain. You appear to be overly concerned with what I am doing, it is pretty odd... You seem to misread me, not my fault. |
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Didn't misread you at all. You inferred I was after timing. I asked you to quote any of your own pre-timed bets. Still waiting.
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Err, having previously said cider called the drift or words to
that effect It's still there,.... |
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Already did.
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What's the lowest price you have taken?
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5/4
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Checking my own trading, mine is 2.36, gosh
 That's quite brave if you aren't laying off, or backing other runners. But there is a long way to go. |
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Didn't realise Advance have also thrown their hat in the ring and have got a decent local candidate. Greens should be much much shorter imo.
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https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/02/can-the-greens-win-gorton-and-denton
.. |
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No idea
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It's a tough one for tories and advance,, but they
need to put a candidate into the race for future reference, and national benefits, rather than actually trying to win the seat. Some good tories cut their teeth in unwinable seats like this. Then some wronguns too, Rees mugg campaigning in upper Fife, scotland with his nanny in an unwinable seat way back when. |
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fyi, to save your fingers
----you-have-to-laugh--- • February 2, 2026 11:33 AM GMT The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user. [Manage blocked users] |
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Mention Rees mugg and and looks like his old seat
might be up for grabs sooner rather than later. That would be a corker if he stands for refuk. |
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And this first one ain't far from Rees mugg country...
Two council by-elections are taking place this week: Labour Defence in Clevedon South (North Somerset) Plaid Cymru Defence in Ynys Gybi (Ynys Môn) Do they still bet on council by elections at smarkets? |
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From the BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y2lj3md8po
The Workers Party of Britain has said it has taken the "difficult decision" not to contest the Gorton and Denton by-election. The party, led by George Galloway, said it was "in the best interests of the working-class" to withdraw from the election. In a statement, it said it would not choose a candidate for the Greater Manchester seat from the four it had been considering. At the general election in July 2024, Galloway's party got 10.3% of the vote and came fourth. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, who said he was stepping down for health reasons that had been aggravated in the last year by the fall-out from leaked messages from a controversial WhatsApp group. Gwynne secured 50.8% of the vote, enough for a majority of more than 13,000 ahead of Reform UK (14.1%). The Greens, on 13.2%, came third. The Conservatives (7.9%) and Liberal Democrats (3.8%) came in fifth and sixth respectively. In a statement, the Workers Party of Britain said Labour had "woefully failed the people of the constituency". The party claimed Labour was the "enemy of the British people", adding that British people had become "poorer" while the government spent money on "a wasteful war" in Ukraine. It also criticised the planned introduction of digital ID cards. It added: "This by-election was triggered by Labour in an attempt to replace Starmer with a new acceptable face. "Whoever wins, if Labour lose, Starmer must resign." |
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Poor mad right wing cash man done his cash
manipulating workers party under 100 to stop greens. |
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So much froth circulates these by-elections. Why would Starmer “have to” resign? Surely his position in the house is unassailable, his position as leader of Labour would be under huge pressure though I doubt very much he would resign that either. He gives me the impression of a dogged, stubborn type who would have to be undermined by his own backbenchers as opposed to public pressure or opinion. In other words, he would have to be sacked. Is that likely?
The most interest for me will be how much the Tories manage to increase their percentage vote. Is Badenoch making any impression on the electorate? |
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I think McSweeney is the one in trouble. This Mandelson stink couldn't have come at a worse time for him as he was the one behind sending him to Washington. If - as expected - Labour shed a load of votes to the left, then McSweeney's whole ethos is undermined. At that point, his judgment is fatally undermined.
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Your Party confirms it will not stand a candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election
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