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Gorton and Denton by-election

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Replies: 537

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 16:54

Mad right wing money needs to keep this looking like a 3 way go.

Refuk lose to either in head to head.

Polling is key, from trusted sauces!

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jan 26 16:56

Like Find it now for example

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 16:58

I'll take that as a well done

It's an overreaction to a poll will a tiny sample, but the poll is aligned with my expectation.

We need more of your measured analysis, yhtl :)

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jan 26 17:00

The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat

REF - 30%
LAB - 27%
GRN - 17%
CON - 6%
LD - 2%

Don't knows - 18%

Via
@FindoutnowUK
143 sample size, January 26-27

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 17:00

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jan 26 17:00

Huge sample size from that "pollster"

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 17:01

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 17:03

You do, indeed.

And it'll be there.

So we are to gather you've ramped and traded
for a small profit, great stuff,

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 17:04

143?

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jan 26 17:05

That 143 sample size surely can't be correct?

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 17:08

Otherwise known as not aftertiming. It does set me apart on here to be fair.

After backing Labour at around 7s today I laid them at around 2/1. And laying Greens at just over evens I have backed them at 3/1 ish.

Can't complain.

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 17:11

by election polls are typically very small samples. and not particularly reliable.

By:

Cider When: 28 Jan 26 17:12

yak will soon be along with the GE 2024 results

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 17:17

Sample: 143
•
Find Out Now
By-election specific poll for the seat. Don't knows: 18%

Reform UK
30.0%
Labour
27.0%
Green
17.0%
Conservative
6.0%
Liberal Democrats
2.0%

This isn't on their own twitter feed???

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 17:18

by election polls are typically very small samples.

Simply not true

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jan 26 17:59

From Find Out Now website...

Pickmypostcode.com’s huge and highly engaged community volunteer their answers every day because they enjoy giving their opinions and supporting the website. Having so many repeat responders allows us to compare responses between questions, discover interesting patterns, intriguing anomalies, and trends over time.
Respondents are real people voluntarily and habitually answering one simple multiple choice question a day, not “career responders” working through lengthy surveys for financial reward. Declining is even easier than responding, so there is no reason to give a false response.

By:

MartinK When: 28 Jan 26 18:43

The constituency of Gorton and Denton was established under the 2024 boundary changes for England, so the 2024 general election was the first contest for the seat.

Labour held the seat through Andrew Gwynne with a majority of 13,413 (36.7%), on a turnout of 47.8%. The electorate was 76,524, with 36,560 valid votes cast and 175 invalid votes.

The recent Caerphilly by-election saw 33,689 votes cast from 66,895 registered electors, a turnout of 50.43%, up on the 2021 election, where 28,914 voted on a 44.3% turnout (implying around 65,250 registered voters).

With a genuinely competitive election likely this time, we may well see a higher turnout than at the 2024 general election. That also matters when interpreting early polling – a poll with a sample size of 143 carries a margin of error of roughly ±8%, making it useful as a rough snapshot but far too noisy to confidently call a winner or firm rankings in a tight race. What increases in a volatile by-election isn’t the statistical error, but the uncertainty around who actually turns out and the composition of the electorate on polling day.

It all depends who turns out.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 28 Jan 26 19:24

It also depends upon who has a realistic chance of winning.

Currently that's 3 options, refuk need it to be a 3 way go
the other 2 want to manufacture a head to head against refuk and
increase tactical voting.

By:

impossible123 When: 28 Jan 26 19:42

Can the Green win it? I do not want Reform to win with so many Tory rejects pocket-talking and piggy-backing.

I hope Labour will be caned, and Sir Shameless ostracised by Labour grassroots.

By:

yak hunt When: 29 Jan 26 09:32

Just to say that the Find Out Now poll doesn't include Muslim voters as they are not allowed to gamble and are unable to use Find Out Now lottery system.

By:

Cider When: 29 Jan 26 09:40

lol

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 29 Jan 26 13:57

https://x.com/i/status/2016551475866980754

..

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 29 Jan 26 14:03

Mad right wing money trying to get workers party
into the mix, but struggling to keep labour down and green up.

Refuk 2.44-2.48
Green 2.74-2.80
Labor 4.30-4.40
WorkP 90-140
Conts 1000
Libde 1000

By:

Escapee When: 29 Jan 26 14:21

The market has been really volatile over the last 24 hours, it's now a 3 way race.

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

6 Runners £37,369 Matched

			101.7%	99.7%
Green	2.68	2.7	2.74	2.78	2.8	2.9	£14,339
	£58	£35	£25	£20	£29	£5
Reform	2.42	2.44	2.46	2.48	2.52	2.56	£13,943
	£32	£9	£3	£36	£8	£5
Labour	4.1	4.2	4.3	4.4	4.5	4.8	£8,647
	£5	£16	£27	£2	£41	£11
Workers Party of Britain	80	85	90	150	190	240	£369
	£11	£3	£3	£4	£3	£2
Conservative	630	640	1000	-	-	-	£34
	£1	£2	£8
Liberal Democrats	500	700	1000	-	-	-	£38
	£5	£2	£12

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 29 Jan 26 17:06

To anyone backing Greens I would certainly be worried about The Workers Party taking some of their Votes

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 29 Jan 26 17:08

who is standing for THE WP ?

By:

saddo When: 29 Jan 26 17:14

Sorry, not fav but vying

By:

DixieDean60 When: 29 Jan 26 17:28

Shahbaz Sarwar is the WP candidate apparently, currently a councillor.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 29 Jan 26 17:50

Looks like the idiots have been triggered on this thread too

The ramping to force out green price caught them, again?

Lol

By:

Cider When: 29 Jan 26 17:55

Unfortunately no convicted terrorists were available on this occasion.

By:

LoyalHoncho When: 29 Jan 26 18:04

Dixie 17.21. Brilliant!

By:

DixieDean60 When: 29 Jan 26 19:00

Somebody obviously didn't think so Honcho

I wonder who ...?

By:

saddo When: 29 Jan 26 19:05

It appears you're not allowed to laugh at something that looks ridiculous any more.

By:

LoyalHoncho When: 29 Jan 26 20:10

Has it been removed?

By:

LoyalHoncho When: 29 Jan 26 20:11

Look up David Sharkey/GeoAmey to witness just how ridiculous our world is becoming.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 29 Jan 26 20:24

It looks like they've removed all evidence of idiots being
conned by online ramping on the market. And posting it
onto betfair.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 29 Jan 26 21:07

Why would the price drift Donnie ? Can you explain fully TYIA

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 29 Jan 26 21:18

Donnie seems to think the person I thought was the Candidate would make the price drift ,Why ?

By:

DixieDean60 When: 29 Jan 26 21:18

Yes Honcho, post removed even though any normal person would not have found it offensive , but alas we have some humourless individuals on here

The price wouldn't drift for such reasons nanny, its just the usual unfounded nonsense from donny.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 29 Jan 26 21:30

I thought Maggie Oiliver was the Reform canditate , Didnt seem to create the same re action