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Gorton and Denton by-election

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Replies: 537
By:
yak hunt
When: 28 Jan 26 09:30
Reform candidate looks very poor choice for this constituency. London based GB News contributor.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 09:33
[   This image is no longer available.   ]
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 09:41
Obviously you can't draw straight lines but something like 20% share of the vote in Caerphilly went to Reform from Labour, and about the same to PC. PC were already on about 28%.

You'd expect Reform to pick up from Labour again, and a bit of Tory residual. Some Labour will go to the t11t whispering nutters, non working party, and probably a bit more sticky to Labour than in Wales.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 10:24
While concrete details were scant, it was considerably more of a policy offering than what the Greens told a hall of 300 supporters, four miles away at the Pakistani Community Centre on the edge of Denton.

Activists left the hour-long rally, in which leader Zack Polanski spoke for eight minutes and took two standing ovations, in excitable mood. It wasn’t clear however whether the seat was being fought in south-east Gaza or south-east Manchester.


lol
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 13:28
I suppose just campaigning in the right constituency
is a great idea unlike one idiot.
By:
yak hunt
When: 28 Jan 26 13:38
nazir afzal
@nazirafzal
·
22h
Surely Reform could have found someone better than Matthew “woke, elite, Muslims, migrants, here’s a dodgy poll I’ve done, give me your money, waffle, waffle” Goodwin as  their candidate in Gorton & Denton
I know they have better local candidates

I agree.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 13:40
So racism and mental health abuse today

Normal day in the life of a forum spammer
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 13:44
Racism lol. I'm sure candidates in one of Lahore's by elections launch from their downtown English Community Centre Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 13:50
Pakistan is a foreign country, in another continent. For now, anyway. I suppose it explains a lot that you evidently think that is entirely normal. I suppose it was in English, at least.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 13:58
Most people try to post stuff to help with betting.

You are just a racist party political broadcast for refuk.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:08
Is is betting related ya donut. Is the Pakistani vote going to win the seat? That could even be split with the 'Workers' party'. I feel like the market is overestimating the appeal of the tiit whispering party. Someone said it was the same as Caerphilly, I brought some facts to explain why I don't think it is.

What exactly is your analysis?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:13
It's your racism, and perception, but hey you
can tell us you traded out for a profit...
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:17
No analysis then Plain
Most people try to post stuff to help with betting.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:26
It's the analysis you need. Pity if you don't take heed.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:26
As in the first (rhetorical) post. Is this fertile territory for the Greens?

I feel personally that it will be more like Runcorn than Caerphilly. A Welsh Nationalist party is a safe home, easy place for a protest vote. And they already had a big start. The tiit whisperers and their nutty plans are not.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:28
They have a chance but not as strong as the market has made it.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:30
If you approach betting from such a biased
prospective you will find you will lose more than you win.

Maybe if you drill down into who voted what at the last election
you might realise where your starting assumptions have
gone wrong.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:33
I've won more than I've lost for over 20 years. Including, politics. So my approach is incredibly effective.
My instinct is that the excitement over the tiit whisperers is way overbaked.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:33
Candidate/Party    Votes    Share    Change
Andrew Gwynne
Labour
18,555    50.8%    -16.5%
Lee Moffitt
Reform UK
5,142    14.1%    9.2%
Amanda Gardner
Green Party
4,810    13.2%    10.6%
Amir Burney
Workers Party of Britain
3,766    10.3%    10.3%
Ruth Welsh
Conservative
2,888    7.9%    -11.0%
John Reid
Liberal Democrat
1,399   

There's a start
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:35
I'd already posted that on the thread. It appears to have been deleted.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:36
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By:
Escapee
When: 28 Jan 26 14:37
UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election        
6 Runners            £21,839 Matched   



              101.5%   98.6%             
Green    2.1 2.12 2.14   2.2   2.22   2.24   £8,929
        £71 £36 £11     £8 £31 £6  
Reform    2.44 2.46 2.48   2.52   2.54   2.56   £9,364
        £108 £24 £18     £22 £150 £4  
Labour    7.2 7.4 7.6   7.8   8   8.2   £3,333
        £8 £107 £4     £10 £1 £5  
Workers Party of Britain    90 100 110   180   200   230   £157
        £2 £52 £1     £4 £1 £9  
Conservative    400 410 500   -   -   -   £23
        £1 £4 £1              
Liberal Democrats    220 230 500   1000   -   -   £33
        £1 £16 £6     £5        
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:38
Then think about general trends at the last election.

Lose the stupid racism

And you are getting a bit closer.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 14:42
Launching from the 'Pakistani' community centre is a pretty big indication the plan is to lean into the Muslim vote again. As outlined from the exert of the article I posted above.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:47
You just can't help yourself.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 14:52
The party's chief whip, Lee Anderson MP, shared photographs on social media of himself and other Reform activists stood outside Stanley House Functions Rooms ahead of the vote.


Writing on X, formerly Twitter, he said: "Gorton and Denton. A cold but productive day in what will be a hotly contested seat." He shared a link to the party's X handle and concluded: "Bring it on."




But the MP has now been lampooned after it emerged the location isn't in Gorton or Denton, but in the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency of Angela Rayner MP, the former deputy prime minister.

Mr Anderson shared the photos on Saturday. A Boundary Commission map shows Stanley House Function Rooms are around half a kilometre outside the constituency that will be contested. A search on the Parliamentary website confirms the building is in Ms Rayner's constituency, reports
After spotting the location, Ms Rayner said: "Farage's Reform can't even find the Gorton and Denton constituency on a map. Perhaps it's because they're too busy filling their party full of former Tories who failed the country.


"Local residents in Gorton and Denton deserve a local MP who is focussed on delivering on local residents' priorities like tackling the cost of living. That's what Labour will be speaking to voters about every day on streets across Gorton and Denton while Farage gets round to finally learning how to use Google Maps and actually work out where they live."


Anna Turley MP, Labour Party Chair, also issued a statement, saying Mr Anderson and Reform activists were 'campaigning in the wrong constituency'. She said: "Farage's Reform are proving from day one they won't stand up for local residents
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 15:11
I wonder how many voters waste their time doom scrolling on twatter.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 15:30
More than on here.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 15:31
Maybe you could spam twitter for work

Lots of idiots.

And you've got so much free time these days
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 28 Jan 26 15:33
Has Goodwin decided on a line for where he's from and his family etc yet? Seems to be some mix up between Manchester and St Albans and who was the first to get a degree.



Still, sur the voters will be happy with just another liar in for them.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 15:33
Most people try to post stuff to help with betting.


©2026 ----you-have-to-laugh---

Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 15:36
Christ you'll be doing well to have a MP that isn't a liar.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 15:37
Around 400 represent Labour, doesn't leave too many left who might not be.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 28 Jan 26 15:42
There's always a mix up.

Sometimes you wonder if it's deliberate to gain
publicity, but it continues beyond times where publicity
is useful.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 28 Jan 26 15:51
looks like we have one who'll embrace a liar, as long as they're wearing the right rosette.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 15:59
Imagine being a Labour voter, and pretending you are deeply offended by lying politicians Happy
By:
yak hunt
When: 28 Jan 26 16:41
fabulous volatile betting market. So far, the shortest price that I have backed Labour at is 1.99 and the longest 8.8 Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 16:48
seems my instinct was right as usual ;)
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 16:53
[i]The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat ➡️ REF - 30%
By:
Cider
When: 28 Jan 26 16:53
The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat REF - 30%  LAB - 27%  GRN - 17%  CON - 6%  LD - 2% Don't knows - 18% Via @FindoutnowUK, 143 sample size, January 26-27
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