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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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By:

politicspunter When: 14 Dec 20 18:32

Winston Smith
@Winston15096180
·
54m
Im in for 5k too so know where you are coming from. If Betfair do their job its in the bag.

By:

peckerdunne When: 14 Dec 20 18:33

By:

politicspunter When: 14 Dec 20 18:34

lauren lewis
@laurenl24854700
·
6h
@Betfair
I have a bet on trump to win the presidential election. If the college declares he lost today and it’s overturned later in the week will the bet be settled as won or lost next week?

By:

Angoose When: 14 Dec 20 18:34

Dec 14, 2020 -- 6:32PM, politicspunter wrote:

Winston Smith@Winston15096180·54mIm in for 5k too so know where you are coming from. If Betfair do their job its in the bag.

Winston Smith, 1984 and all that ......

By:

politicspunter When: 14 Dec 20 18:37

Nicolae Musat
@NickMusat
·
1h
Replying to
@marktcards

@Winston15096180
and 3 others
I am afraid they play by their own rules not by the US Constitution rules ! If you ask me right now I would bet 10k on Trump because HE WON but nothing is really clear regarding the settlement

By:

Total Bosman When: 14 Dec 20 18:40

After today the only legal action against Betfair that could succeed is from Biden backers. In a market this size that should be their biggest concern.

By:

peckerdunne When: 14 Dec 20 18:46

wow its scary shitttt ... freaks

By:

Mr Ed When: 14 Dec 20 18:49

Am I misreading or are people saying they are 100% sure Trump will win???
No wonder winning money on the exchanges is easy...there are a lot of mugs out there.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 18:50

Dec 14, 2020 -- 5:41PM, Total Bosman wrote:

Saw this BetfairCS reply, doesn’t inspire confidence:Hi there. Apologies for the delay in getting back to you. The markets will remain open for trading until we can settle on certainty. There are electoral events that are still to take place within the coming month before there is certainty on the matter

I think I saw this tweet as well. Correct me if I'm wrong but it was in response to a post about the Supreme Court throwing out the challenge - the only electoral event in the coming month is today, isn't it?

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 18:50

and it’s overturned later in the week

jaysus

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 18:52

Mr Ed
14 Dec 20 19:49
Joined: 02 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 508 | Blogger: Mr Ed's blog
Am I misreading or are people saying they are 100% sure Trump will win???
No wonder winning money on the exchanges is easy...there are a lot of mugs out there.

politicspunter knows

By:

Mr Ed When: 14 Dec 20 18:52

Also I am confused by the popular vote winner. Biden won the popular vote, whatever happens today.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 18:53

Dec 14, 2020 -- 6:49PM, Mr Ed wrote:

Am I misreading or are people saying they are 100% sure Trump will win???No wonder winning money on the exchanges is easy...there are a lot of mugs out there.

There's loads of them mate. I've said this before but it makes sense in a way. Not to us, but if you're in the cult and you buy into everything he says, have no critical thinking skills and believe everything you read on social media then of course he is going to win. Some guy was saying he was 12k deep on Trump today and seemed convinced he was going to win a fortune.

By:

Mr Ed When: 14 Dec 20 18:55

Betfair have previously said they will settle today....
"We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.

Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.

We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date."

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 18:55

Dec 14, 2020 -- 6:40PM, Total Bosman wrote:

After today the only legal action against Betfair that could succeed is from Biden backers. In a market this size that should be their biggest concern.

Yes, there's no way you can argue Trump is the one with the most projected EC votes when said votes have been confirmed for Biden. They blew it by not settling the Saturday it was called by the networks, I'd be astonished if they missed another chance.

Daft if you think about it. If a Trump backer starts complaining, just read the sodding rules back at them, they've got no comeback or recourse.

By:

politicspunter When: 14 Dec 20 18:58

Biden 166-123. Trump closing the gap...

By:

Mr Ed When: 14 Dec 20 18:59

Personally I think if Biden had been 1.01 to lay after the projected results came in betfair would've settled.
No point them settling a market if the money is still rolling in.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 Dec 20 19:00

This market has added more to UK economy, or would do
if it was UK based, than the UK fishing fleet does...

By:

dave1357 When: 14 Dec 20 19:01

I think in these twitter threads there are a fair amount of trolls among the clueless.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 Dec 20 19:03

Same on here dave,...

By:

promain When: 14 Dec 20 19:03

I feel sorry for the retards who seriously think Trump is going to conjure up a win from thin air somehow and win them a fortune. Deluded by his fakery. For Trump this has been a fund raising exercise pure and simple and the longer he can milk his supporters the better. He has known he lost, and won’t change that result, from the start. It’s a pity for Biden backers that Betfair have twigged it’s an excellent fund raising exercise for them too.

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:06

lawsuits pending but yes given the history of the lawsuits results biden won the popular vote

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:07

sorry that was in response to this

Mr Ed
14 Dec 20 19:52
Joined: 02 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 511 | Blogger: Mr Ed's blog
Also I am confused by the popular vote winner. Biden won the popular vote, whatever happens today.

By:

kevinglass When: 14 Dec 20 19:07

Not great PR for Betfair, in allowing people to bet on an event that has already taken place, and cannot conceivably be a winner. If you back Trump, the wrong State etc etc.

Wouldn't be surprised if there was some form of litigation from some losers once they realise the facts. Which makes it odd that Betfair allow people to keep backing losers after they've passed the post.

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:08

advice from leading U.S. lawyers

By:

Mr Ed When: 14 Dec 20 19:09

He'll still be thinking up new legal challenges after Biden is in the white house

By:

johnni When: 14 Dec 20 19:17

I have 7000 euros on Trump to win.

This will be my single biggest win ever.

Trump truly is a great businessman and he truly makes everyone rich.

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:18

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:18

market of the year, thread of the year

By:

Hank Hill When: 14 Dec 20 19:20

I think it's clear that BF for the 2024 election should just have next president on Jan 21. Having projected EC votes as their rule is pointless because they have ignored their own rules. At least having Jan 21 rule everyone would know where they stand.

By:

johnni When: 14 Dec 20 19:23

Ibam watching the news.

Georgia is sending two slates of electroral college.

Republican and democrat.

I predict the democrat ones will be canceled before january 20th and Trump will win, bigly.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 19:23

I think people would be less inclined to bet into a market knowing they're waiting two months for their winnings, particularly if the Republican candidate isn't a narcissistic maniac and concedes. Should just define who the projection is from and make it clear that is what people are betting on.

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:24

kevinglass
14 Dec 20 20:07
Joined: 05 Sep 11 | Topic/replies: 598 | Blogger: kevinglass's blog
Not great PR for Betfair, in allowing people to bet on an event that has already taken place, and cannot conceivably be a winner. If you back Trump, the wrong State etc etc.

Wouldn't be surprised if there was some form of litigation from some losers once they realise the facts. Which makes it odd that Betfair allow people to keep backing losers after they've passed the post.

although I toally agree with you, betfair will point to the non zero probability of the supreme court overturning the election and giving trump all the votes.

of course in reality this is so tiny as to be zero if we allow rounding so the question will hinge (in a court case) on whether betfair were negligent in protecting customers because no one that runs an exchange should act as if 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 isn't 0

By:

llama1 When: 14 Dec 20 19:26

I spoke to Betfair and they are pretty adamant that there will be NO settlement today.

Their one liner is....'it won't be today, we will need to wait for everything to have a final result'

So don't go rushing and collecting your 'Overnight' 3% return quite yet......

By:

PeteTheBloke When: 14 Dec 20 19:27

It p1sses me off that we should have been paid and >4 weeks into the 2024 market by now.

Same as BF Sportsbook has been.

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 19:27

Dec 14, 2020 -- 7:23PM, johnni wrote:

Ibam watching the news.Georgia is sending two slates of electroral college.Republican and democrat.I predict the democrat ones will be canceled before january 20th and Trump will win, bigly.

Simply not true, the GOP are selecting their own, the official ones have been selected and gone to the Democrats. It's like me saying I'm sending myself and that'll count as one.

By:

Charlton2005 When: 14 Dec 20 19:29

161-158 goooooooooooooooooooooooooo tttttttttttttttttrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmmmmmmppppppppppyyyyyyyyyyy

By:

politicspunter When: 14 Dec 20 19:29

183-173 Biden. Trump nearly level, can he take the lead?

By:

A_T When: 14 Dec 20 19:29

are the GOP "electors" wearing clown outfits?

By:

Sergeant Cecil When: 14 Dec 20 19:30

Dec 14, 2020 -- 7:27PM, PeteTheBloke wrote:

It p1sses me off that we should have been paid and >4 weeks into the 2024 market by now.Same as BF Sportsbook has been.

Agreed, starting to get very annoying now. The rules are there in black and white, use them for God's sake.