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FWIW I still think Betfair will settle these markets tomorrow UK time - though apparently (and understandably) that's going to take some time and the whole Betfair site might have to be offline for a considerable period for them to do so, which seems crazy. However, what they've been telling Trump supporters seems to be somewhat different:
https://twitter.com/NickOwen4/status/1338226962377154562 This thread is also fascinating: https://twitter.com/Benjiv18/status/1338415487403712512 |
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Maybe after they've settled this they can immediately start a new "Who will be inaugurated as the President of the USA on 20th January" market? I'll happily take another bite of the cherry as long as there are people willing to offer odds. :-)
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Not huge numbers but there's a determined group of MAGAs focusing on the Betfair market still insisting Trump will win election & thus 2020 market. Mix of mentally-ill / low IQ / nutter / troll farm / amateur troll, only a minority are real people with real post-election bets.
@dhzzzss |
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I'm pretty surprised that Betfair's online help haven't seemingly been repeating the wording in their own blog post word-for-word:
Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets. We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date. It does seem pretty irresponsible of them to still be quietly encouraging Trump backers to wade into the market, given the stated market rules etc. The absolute best case scenario for those on Trump is that Betfair decide to void the market and they get their money back. |
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Betfair would be inundated with legal cases if they voided the market.
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They'll probably be inundated with legal cases whatever they do at this point! But them voiding the market at their "absolute discretion", whilst highly highly unlikely, is clearly covered in the market rules, so likely they'd be OK legally. But they would lose out on several million in commission, so it's not a great outcome for them either. Settling for Biden tomorrow is by far their 'easiest' and most profitable outcome. The info their customer services are giving out suggests they're happy to maximise their commission on the market. Probably not ethical but it doesn't indicate they're too worried about it!
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Of course the supposed online chats with customer services could be mocked up easy enough.
You would think the customer service agents would have been given a standard reply to answer any queries. Letting them "freestyle" is rather odd. Or of course not hard to imagine a customer service agent who just doesn't know what they're doing, and looking to please the person who has a query......cust sat survey post chat being the most important thing to them. |
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Let's face it, Betfair customer service agents are worse than useless.
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I find customer services need my input to
be able to solve my problems. Left to their own devices they are chocolate fireguard standard most of the time. Nice enough folk. |
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It would be classic Betfair shenanigans to point out that as of today the projected electors actually cease to be projected electors once their vote is cast and therefore somehow keep the market going.
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Betfair need a get out of jail card to settle this. They provided themselves with one with their "14th Dec statement".
They would be ultra foolish not to use the card, however irrelevant it was to the original rules. Here's hoping. I still can't believe Trump is 30's or so.....Politics betting, the gift that keeps on giving. |
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God forbid!
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It also makes little sense to state that "subsequent events such as Faithless Electors" have no bearing on the outcome of the markets (even the EC Votes ones) and yet pay out straight after the Electors have voted - even if some of them are Faithless (not impossible, several were in 2016)!
This guy claims that Betfair have told him this morning that: "before settling the bet we will wait for all legal challenges to be finished as the results may alter": https://twitter.com/PeterStebbings3/status/1338448693377310721 If true it does seem either a) Betfair are just encouraging people to bet right up to the end to increase their take, b) they're not actually going to settle still, or c) their customer services don't know what they're talking about |
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There could be "legal challenges" for the next 20 years.
I note they have also stated they will pay out "before inauguration" |
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The guy in the tweet below says Betfair have "assured" him that there will be "advanced warning for what would happen". Does that seriously mean that Betfair are going to tell everyone before they do it that they're about to settle the markets for Biden?! Madness, and also somewhat hilarious if they do.
https://twitter.com/marktcards/status/1338444102027849729 |
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As I said above all markets should be suspended as soon as the first state starts their EC vote.
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As vague as “projected electoral votes” is, it’s simply not open to interpretation once those votes are cast. So assuming today’s vote proceeds as normal not only would they be forced, one way or another, to pay out on Joe, they have a completely watertight case to not pay out on any other outcome. It’s really that simple.
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You'd think there'd have been another update from then post the 27th Nov one, if they weren't settling today.
You do wonder who is actually making the decision..... |
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although it won't happen I'd love betfair to answer what they would do if there were 37 faithless electors.
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oh ffs
Six Certificates of Ascertainment are paired with the Certificates of the Vote. One is sent to the U.S. vice president, two are sent to the state’s secretary of state, two are sent to the archivist of the U.S., and the final one is sent to the judge of the U.S. district court of the district in which the electors met. Those certificates must be delivered by the fourth Wednesday in December, which this year is Dec. 23. They will ultimately be brought before Congress on Jan. 6, when Congress declares the election results https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/529867-electors-meet-to-cast-their-votes-heres-how-it-works . |
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still not expecting to see my in the next 48 hrs..........
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winnings
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I guess the hotshot lawyers knew all that process Dave when they told Betfair the 14th should be ok to settle.
I expect Betfair are in constant communication as we speak with the sharpest US lawyers, and law books all over the place..... |
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I'm not 100% but I think the 23rd date is a red herring. In reality the EC Votes are announced and officially posted online today, pretty much as soon as they're made. It's only the official process that sees the US Postal Service delivering the Certificates.
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Should be released here: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
According to this: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/politics/electoral-college-vote-step-by-step-guide/index.html |
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womble - we are talking about a company that is utterly unable to explain why a market remains open when it's rules state:
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. |
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*its rules
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What does "projected electoral college votes" mean though? It's vague enough to be almost meaningless as a definitive way of settling the market. Clearly most (sensible) people would think it means the point at which the major news outlets "projected" the race, but clearly Betfair missed that chance. I could make a vaguely plausible argument that the projected electoral votes are those projected by the actual votes which take place today (but are still "projected" in the sense that they're not confirmed until 6th Jan. Not saying it's a very strong argument, but it's not entirely irrational.
Mainly though, Betfair's very prominent blog post all but says they're going to settle on the basis of what happens today, so I'm still pretty confident that's what they'll do (not sure exactly when or how long it'll take though!) |
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We've been through this before - the term "projected" doesn't appear in any official state or federal process. It has, however, been used by every major media outlet. There is no possible interpretation of the word other than media projection.
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Well, with respect dave1357, there's the dictionary definition:
"estimated or forecast on the basis of current trends or data" So whilst I don't disagree with you that sensibly it means the projected media result forecasts, the market doesn't explicitly say that. Dictionary definition somewhat supports the idea that they can wait for "data" (i.e. the actual EC Votes) to "forecast" the result (which as it stands is exactly what they've said they're doing). I understand how frustrating that must be if you've got a lot of money fully committed which you need released though. |
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The only thing that is "frustrating" is ppl like you who try to defend BF with ludicrous arguments.
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That betfair saw fit to use those words to frame their market
shows they know what it meant as did we. They can't suddenly say that's not what we meant, and then go on to not clarify the matter beyond doubt. It's laughable to think they may even try,.... The hotshot usa lawyers would be laffed at as much as the trump squad. |
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I'm not defending Betfair in the slightest as you'll clearly see if you read any of my previous posts. Just stating that while it may seem like clear and definitive language to you (and to some extent to me) it is quite vague - they were clearly very sloppy when defining the market rules, and made a lot of assumptions about what Trump would do when he lost (or lost by any 'normal' definition based on previous US Elections).
I'm also not complaining though, because I've been able to take very good advantage of this unexpected delay in settling a market that, as far as I can see, is already certain beyond any reasonable doubt. Unless you have money tied up that you really need back urgently then it really is a unique opportunity and Betfair leaving the market open should be celebrated! (As I put above, I'd quite like a new "Who will be inaugurated on 20th January" market - albeit one with much clearer market rules (which presumably the Trump supporters won't even read again!) |
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I'm not defending Betfair in the slightest as you'll clearly see if you read any of my previous posts. Just stating that while it may seem like clear and definitive language to you (and to some extent to me) it is quite vague - they were clearly very sloppy when defining the market rules, and made a lot of assumptions about what Trump would do when he lost (or lost by any 'normal' definition based on previous US Elections).
I'm also not complaining though, because I've been able to take very good advantage of this unexpected delay in settling a market that, as far as I can see, is already certain beyond any reasonable doubt. Unless you have money tied up that you really need back urgently then it really is a unique opportunity and Betfair leaving the market open should be celebrated! (As I put above, I'd quite like a new "Who will be inaugurated on 20th January" market - albeit one with much clearer market rules (which presumably the Trump supporters won't even read again!) |
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If anyone wants live updates then the NYT have them here (not behind their paywall seemingly): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/14/us/elections/electoral-college-results.html
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Actually, this is a lot more detailed - even has live stream links! https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2020/electoral-college-vote-tracker/
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/14/us/elections/electoral-college-results.html
Here's a decent live update of the votes coming in. Will Biden head for 1.10 again now Trump is winning? /s |
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22-7 Trump.
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Pi
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So Nevado due at 16:30 -so will Betfair Suspend Nevada Winner market -which is still open at the moment !!
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