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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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Replies: 2,073
By:
RioGrande
When: 29 Nov 20 22:07
FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT PLC google and you will see
By:
RioGrande
When: 29 Nov 20 22:07
they are shaking hands with the devil himself
By:
RioGrande
When: 29 Nov 20 22:07
or kissing his ass either way lol
By:
RioGrande
When: 29 Nov 20 22:15
recounts showing biden got even more counts cost trupm $3 million
By:
peckerdunne
When: 29 Nov 20 22:48
Mafia
By:
the whizz kids
When: 30 Nov 20 00:39
I'm full exposure with Test cricket starting this week, not sure if I can gat more? The last thing I want to be doing is losing 6% interest on a short investment. Absolute joke, my Mrs is starving and not eaten since November 4th. BF please settle, me the Mrs and the kids need feeding.
By:
the whizz kids
When: 30 Nov 20 00:42
In other words I'm waiting on 15k and my Mrs wants some Gucci fecking trainers, please hurry up.
By:
the whizz kids
When: 30 Nov 20 00:51
It does amaze me the amount of people that keep on saying that they are only keeping it open because of the amount of commission they make, we'll that's utter BS, what about the amount of money lost due to it all being tied up in these markets. If money does not flow you can't earn commission.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 30 Nov 20 02:09
I've heard the tory foodbanks are popular at the moment...
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 30 Nov 20 10:27
I think BF backed themselves into a corner and the longer it goes on the harder it is to get out. Once the counts were done they should have paid out. All the legal challenges are pure BS but they got drawn in and now are stuck!
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 30 Nov 20 10:29
X2
By:
politicspunter
When: 30 Nov 20 10:30
x3
By:
peterthepunter
When: 30 Nov 20 12:43
Absolutely spot on, Whispering Death.   

The original rules were fine and I don't think anyone had a problem.   Betfair settled a large number of State markets in accordance with those rules and without controversy.   They've got themselves in a right mess now.

In the unlikely event the Electoral College votes for Trump, what are Betfair going to do - pay out under the original rules (on Biden) or under the revised rules (presumably Trump, if they don't change the rules again)?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Nov 20 13:04
Yep, they’ve got themselves in a horrible mess.

The commission point whizz makes is interesting. It’s obviously a huge market right now and continues to trade vast volumes. If you think about £100m traded at 1.05 that’s £5m settled on the v safe assumption Biden wins, so £100k but of course a certain proportion of it will be churn from people who already have positions. How much that amount of money being tied up is chilling other markets is speculative but I’m quite like whizz. I’ve been running at about £3-5k loose to bet on football and cricket and have had to rein in football betting especially hard. Cricket has been less affected as in non test match markets I don’t often go deeper than about £1.5k and v rarely more than £2.5.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 30 Nov 20 13:11
Why i took back my stake and put it to work elsewhere,i didn't have to, but as before how long is enough already..
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Nov 20 13:13
I can’t bring myself to take back even another couple of k at the cost of 5-6% on the main market or similar on others when it would be such a catastrophically terrible bet in isolation. Obviously I’d hope to put the money to decent use but I doubt my expected return through having it available would match up. I’m good but I’m not that good, I don’t think.
By:
bingo bongo
When: 30 Nov 20 13:34

Nov 30, 2020 -- 12:43PM, peterthepunter wrote:


Absolutely spot on, Whispering Death.

By:
bingo bongo
When: 30 Nov 20 13:39
This is why I thought void is in play, arguably a better bet than Trump if it was possible. Betfair can't risk even a chance of a possibility of ending up paying out twice. So rather than settle Trump as the winner and await the complaints - void it and claim the election process was unusual. Which of course is unfair but its impossible not to be now.
By:
peterthepunter
When: 30 Nov 20 21:59
By the way, Arizona has now certified its results.   

There is absolutely no reason why Betfair should not settle this market immediately.   It is determined purely on who wins the most votes, which is now conformed as Biden.   However, if Betfair did settle Arizona, its position on the main Next President market becomes even more absurd, so I guess they will procrastinate further and hope nobody takes any action against them until, they hope, Trump concedes or Biden is inaugurated.
By:
promain
When: 30 Nov 20 22:40
Wisconsin just certified. That’s all six swing states Trump has disputed now certified for Biden. This is over. We know it. They know it. But still they won’t settle. And deathly silence on the subject too. It’s an absolute disgrace on Betfair’s part.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 30 Nov 20 22:46
1.05 is still up there for millions ? Madness Settle the Market FFS
By:
RioGrande
When: 30 Nov 20 22:51
good points whizz kids. its possbile that many have hedged there bets.
By:
RioGrande
When: 30 Nov 20 22:53
they cant void a 1 billion 164 million matched bets. they have shareholders
By:
Chemosabe
When: 30 Nov 20 22:57

Nov 30, 2020 -- 10:46PM, the old nanny ;-) wrote:


1.05 is still up there for millions ? Madness Settle the Market FFS


Why are you whining? Fill your boots, if you're that sure this is a done deal. Betfair are doing the sensible thing and making sure all the court cases are done and dusted before settling. You probably aren't aware, but the election result between Bush and Gore wasn't decided until the Supreme Court decision on 12th December, 2000.

By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Nov 20 23:17

Nov 30, 2020 -- 1:39PM, bingo bongo wrote:


This is why I thought void is in play, arguably a better bet than Trump if it was possible. Betfair can't risk even a chance of a possibility of ending up paying out twice. So rather than settle Trump as the winner and await the complaints - void it and claim the election process was unusual. Which of course is unfair but its impossible not to be now.


People keep saying that they couldn’t and can’t risk settling Biden if it might turn out Trump wins but a) he won’t and b) they had market rules that allowed them to settle on projected EC votes. They could perfectly readily have settled at any point from when the networks and AP called the race and told anyone whingeing to read the rules.

By:
peterthepunter
When: 30 Nov 20 23:33
Fatslogger

Yes, that's absolutely correct.   They could and should have paid when the networks called the race.   They have now got themselves in a pickle.

Why would I not 'fill my boots' now on backing Biden?    I am maxed out already and could not stake more without going into debt.   I might even have countenanced that but what if Betfair change the rules again?   

That's a risk I simply cannot take.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 07:15
I’m also close to maxed out, having pulled £10k extra into my account to bet more on Biden. I’m not that worried that Betfair will fail to pay out and can’t see any earthly way they could settled Trump as winner but it is still irritating and irrational that they’re doing this.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 08:13
Betfair have acted correctly, when there are lawsuits that could alter projected votes they have to wait and see the
outcome of those lawsuits
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 01 Dec 20 10:11
None of you seem to know what you are talking about -IMHO Trump has WON because Biden etc cheated --- Come Jan I have no doubt Trump will be looking at another 4 years -- You won't be paid out this year that's for sure -You all need to check the RULES which lead to being a President .. All Biden is in LAW is still a candidate  --The bbc are Lying as usual
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 10:18
Polly, we all have been paid out in full, on every election market, by every bookmaker/exchange. The only one that hasn't paid out is Betfair exchange. However, keep backing Trump if you have money to throw away.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 10:19
Btw, what evidence do you have that Biden "cheated" ?
By:
mmmalushka
When: 01 Dec 20 11:19
Bet 365 just paid out on Wisconsin,no excuse for betfair not to pay out.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 11:24
37 states in total now certified, including all the ones Betfair won't pay out on.Sad
By:
llama1
When: 01 Dec 20 11:38
I think the most frustrating thing for all of us is not having a spare 5 million pounds to make a quick quarter of million pounds?

The sooner the markets are settled, then the sooner that frustration will disappear?
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 11:41
And the sooner Betfair customers will disappear...
By:
GAZO
When: 01 Dec 20 11:59
thats probally why the market is still open,some have that 5 million,be interesting to see who
By:
Charlton2005
When: 01 Dec 20 12:07

pollybournemouth
01 Dec 20 11:11
Joined: 06 Feb 10 | Topic/replies: 462 | Blogger: pollybournemouth's blog
None of you seem to know what you are talking about -IMHO Trump has WON because Biden etc cheated


fishing obvs
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 12:10
Don't think so.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 01 Dec 20 12:18
The distinction BF are failing to make is between overturning the result and overriding it, and the problem is I don’t fully trust them to ever get it right.

The legal challenges to overturn the result are going nowhere and his team’s stated aim now is to persuade state legislatures to simply override the popular vote totals in their state. But overriding the result, in the unlikely event it succeeds, does not overturn- Biden will still have won each state’s popular vote, but the result will be ignored. That’s why Betfair should’ve settled and why they are creating a bigger problem by kicking the can. So much of the doubt in the markets is a mistrust of BF to get it right.

Betfair, like a bad referee, have become the story.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 01 Dec 20 12:25
llama1
29 Nov 20 01:54
Joined: 13 Jul 00 | Topic/replies: 132 | Blogger: llama1's blog
If you go to the 'Trump Percentage Market', people are trying to BACK Trump getting a percentage of 61% or more at odds of 40.00 for nearly £1,000.

By my calculation this equates to Trump getting something in the order of 94 million votes. He currently has 74 Million.

I am assuming that they are Expecting/Hoping that ALL the postal votes will be declared null and void?

Also, by my calculation, even if that happened, Trump would still NOT get 61% of the votes.


you are correct Llama, its 100% free money. they would have to void 35 million of bidens votes for trump to get >61%.
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