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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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What I dont understand is why Betfair haven't settled on all bar Biden and Trump. How can anybody else POSSIBLY win ? The reason is
people can trade on all these others ,then Betfair taking their 2-5 per cent. I thought a principal of betting is if you can't win ,you can't lose. With Betfair apparently you can! |
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actually yeah calcs are wrong
if biden keeps his 80 and jorgensens et al have 2, trump needs 126 million to get 61% or more |
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But , those projected votes can change , the important thing is that they are correct
They are still projected votes right up until the vote takes place And only then are they no longer projected votes That’s when you will known if your bet has won or lost are you saying that the projected votes can change based on lawsuits etc, rather than the projected votes for biden could change to actual votes for trump? i.e. you ARE ignoring faithless electors, but you are allowing for the fact the projected votes themselves can change until the moment they are not projected anymore and have become actual. if so, then I agree 100% and THAT is the reason why bf have not settled. and same logic goes for the popular vote |
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That’s correct Charlton
( faithless voters are ignored and betfair are right to do so I could explain why but it seems most don’t understand the basics so I won’t bother |
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yeah, I get you
 What most are missing is the definition of "projected" (as you have eloquently alluded to). |
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For all who haven seen this
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html Nov 27, Update Update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (dated Friday, 27th November, [17:00]) We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges. Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets. We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date. The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positio |
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In the absence of a specified definition you take the normal, common meaning of a word its context. In the context of US Politics 'projected' refers to the calling of States by the Networks. This is what most punters would have assumed, and we can take it that is what Betfair meant because that is how they settled very many markets. As far as I know, nobody has objected because there was no reason to do so.
Their position in respect of the unsettled markets is untenable. |
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caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.
this is all you need to know |
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Our projection that Joe Biden is the presumptive winner in Wisconsin reflects the situation now. If, as the Trump campaign has requested, a recount takes place, we will report that and the result - and if necessary, we'll change our projections accordingly.
from the bbc what you are missing is exactly what lfc is saying. the projected votes can change. |
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No they can't. They are projected by the Associated Press. You are confusing projected with official, which is not the same.
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where in the rules does it mention the AP?
"official" wtf is that  |
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Also remember that Betfair have paid out on 44 of the 50 states so far using the projected votes method as in their rules.
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meaningless words from you PP, you sound as big a mug as trump himself
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I have forgot more about politics and betting on politics than you will ever know.
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"we will change our projections"
end of thread |
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It's not Betfair projections, it's the Associated Press.
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you can't pay out on all the states and expect to be able to possibly not pay on EC with a straight face
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Warned you you were wasting your time Charlton
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seems like its not the end :(
(1) where in the rules does it mention AP (2) what is "official" as opposed to projected (the two that I am confusing) either answer those or keep quiet |
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Best leave them to it , understanding can be an epic task for some of them
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you're right lfc
I am going to do some work |
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very wise Charlton , Betfair are right not to listen to them either
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People quoting lfc and expectung
to be taken seriously.... What next? A Michelin star for KFC? |
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Theres no doubt the rules are badly worded, but it seems that some are arguing that Betfair should wait until the projected results are no longer projected results even though the rules say they will settle based on projected results?? A blog post pre election mentioned one reason for delaying settlement would be if projections couldn't be made - not if projections were made but might change later.
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 thank god for Charlton , I was beginning to think no one else was capable of understanding and logical thought all is good . |
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More chance of the Michelin star for KFC
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There’s another one who doesn’t understand
 oh well can’t be bothered to explain again |
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* bongo , read the rules , read Charltons and my explanation of the rules
read them slowly and read them again And try and understand , cheers |
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The big problem for Betfair regarding any future court case is that they have already paid out on 44 of the 50 states using their existing rules. They would be on a hiding to nothing if they claimed they could choose to pay out on the remaining states using an alternative method. They would be as well simply paying out now and settling all markets as everyone else has done.
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You have to be able to understand what the rules mean and the purpose they serve
It seems that’s too difficult for most of you |
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nevermind
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Betfair rules.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Charlton rules. And only then are they no longer projected votes That’s when you will known if your bet has won or lost |
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This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. 10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. |
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If it ever came to it, Betfair will be asked in court why they used the wording they used, when the simple wording "who will be inaugurated pres on jan 20th?" could have been used. And furthermore why they said that "subsequent events" would be ignored.
There is no answer to that other than the rules were formulated to pay out quickly on the apparent election winner, with legal dark arts ignored. |
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Indeed, They wouldn't have a leg to stand on.
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he most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Seems clear to me Betfair are reserving their right is all. There is no realistic legal challenge. The votes are in and I think nearly all been counted. The projected majority is clearly with Biden even if the Electors cast their votes differently to the people. If common sense prevails Betfair will call the result before 14th December otherwise we just wait for our money. Regardless...WE WIN! |
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Projected Electoral College Votes not even actual!
But Betfair reserves the right. Rules is rules! |