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When will B/f settle presidency market?

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Replies: 2,073
By:
GAZO
When: 01 Dec 20 15:11
so shouldnt the market be closed ?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 01 Dec 20 15:14
No because new candidates can be requested by puntersShocked
By:
bingo bongo
When: 01 Dec 20 15:15
Betfair reserves the right to let people throw their money away - and must be praying that Trump doesn't somehow find an improbable way to turn this around - especially one involving faithless electors.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 15:26
Lol , they’re still going round in circles
By:
dave1357
When: 01 Dec 20 15:26
involving a subsequent event such as faithless electors.

fixed
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 15:27
Betfair will keep you right don’t worry
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 15:28
Read the rules folk , it’s not difficult
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 15:40

Dec 1, 2020 -- 3:36PM, politicspunter wrote:


Don't respond to the forum troll, block him asap.


I think people should be perfectly at liberty to read lfc’s mildly amusing stuff. They’d do well not to take it too seriously but I don’t think we should be too down on a bit of fishing.

By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 15:47
deary me its the stalker politicspunter  having another tantrum again
just ignore him
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 15:50
Now here are the facts . Betfair haven’t paid out
There’s a very good reason for that , I’ve explained the reason

That’s all you need to know
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 15:57
Besides, I never found anything he posted even slightly amusing. What he posted I did find relentlessly abusive/time wasting to not only me but to other forum members. That's why I blocked him.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 16:00
More stalking and harassment from politicspunter
That’s against forum rules
By:
dave1357
When: 01 Dec 20 16:01
yep he's a useless waste of bandwidth
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 16:02
It really does take quite a nerve to say you’ve blocked someone
And then follow them around stalking and harassing Laugh
By:
Charlie
When: 01 Dec 20 16:46
FS
You are far too generous towards lfc. He's not fishing, he's not trolling and is certainly not amusing he is just dim. He admits it himself.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 16:54

Dec 1, 2020 -- 4:46PM, Charlie wrote:


FSYou are far too generous towards lfc. He's not fishing, he's not trolling and is certainly not amusing he is just dim. He admits it himself.


No, I think the persistent heterodox views, the sucking in of the forum’s err, more eccentric thinkers by agreeing with them and the odd outbreak of quite cogently argued points, albeit in favour of a weird overall position, mark him out as a deep mind, playing a curious meta game with the forum. Why he puts all the time in beats me but then I guess trolling a forum isn’t much less ridiculous than posting seriously on one.

By:
Charlie
When: 01 Dec 20 16:57
Or he's just dim.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 17:02

Dec 1, 2020 -- 4:57PM, Charlie wrote:


Or he's just dim.


That’s how he often comes across but there are too many occasions when he isn’t. Anyway, although I think my view is right, I also much prefer the more interesting explanation so will stick with it and interpret any new evidence as supportive of my view. This latter will be a new phenomenon on the politics forum, I appreciate.

By:
Charlie
When: 01 Dec 20 17:05
I find that on the few occasions he appears to come across as coherent he doesn't really understand what he's on about. A little questioning of him soon reveals that.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 01 Dec 20 17:07
Could easily be more than one person
posting on the account, although
Betfair seemed to have banned
most of those based on twitter
reactions.

He's deffo more amenable at some
times than others.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 17:20

Dec 1, 2020 -- 5:05PM, Charlie wrote:


I find that on the few occasions he appears to come across as coherent he doesn't really understand what he's on about. A little questioning of him soon reveals that.


Well his technique for backing up some of the obviously complete rubbish he comes out with does lean heavily on pretending that he’s already answered all questions and that his interlocutor is just being a bit dense and needs to read what he’s said again more carefully but you have to have some fallbacks as a troll when you know that logic isn’t going to be on your side.

By:
peckerdunne
When: 01 Dec 20 18:27
Lfc's posts are unmistakable really, definitely all the same person.I agree he has mellowed considerably since he returned from his sabbatical for which he said he was busy,though i prefer to think he had covid.

He definitely can be thick but not necessarily dim imo, in fact can be quite clever even witty and knowledgeable in a smarmy kind of way, though possibly not clever enough to extricate himself from some of the 'innate' positions he appears to take.

I think he believes what he says but also quite a bit is by design.
He's not a cold creature either to his credit at times.

If i had a night out with him i can't be sure if he would be entertaining enough for me not to wring his neck not some stage...Laugh
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 19:30
Ah , I notice betfair have removed some more of the stalkers ( politicspunter) posts
They are watching him stalking and harassment is against forum rules so he should learn to behave

Sometimes the mods good judgement  is remarkably accurate , and swift .
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 19:32
some good posts there , interesting Happy
By:
peckerdunne
When: 01 Dec 20 19:34
GrinWink
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 19:39
Don't respond to the forum troll.
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 19:44
The stalkers back! Sad
By:
Fatslogger
When: 01 Dec 20 19:46

Dec 1, 2020 -- 6:27PM, peckerdunne wrote:


Lfc's posts are unmistakable really, definitely all the same person.I agree he has mellowed considerably since he returned from his sabbatical for which he said he was busy,though i prefer to think he had covid.He definitely can be thick but not necessarily dim imo, in fact can be quite clever even witty and knowledgeable in a smarmy kind of way, though possibly not clever enough to extricate himself from some of the 'innate' positions he appears to take.I think he believes what he says but also quite a bit is by design.He's not a cold creature either to his credit at times.If i had a night out with him i can't be sure if he would be entertaining enough for me not to wring his neck not some stage...


I think he’d be very entertaining on the hypothetical forum night out.

PP, I understand your position here but if lfc keeps winding you up, for goodness sake do as you’ve said you should and ignore him. Personally I’ve no problem at all with either of you and enjoy reading both of your views. You just look silly telling other people which posts they should and shouldn’t read though.

By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Dec 20 19:51
lfc doesn't keep winding me up. I have no idea what he posts other than knowing it's his usual stuff (as it always is).
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 19:52
He doesn’t read my posts ( hmmm) and gets angry when anyone else reads them
If someone quotes, there he is it gives him an excuse Laugh
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 19:56
To block someone , and then have the cheek to get annoyed when they post ( which you can’t read)
Lol , such a peculiar vice
By:
lfc1971
When: 01 Dec 20 20:03
Some things are right , and some things are not
that’s not right  , improve your behaviour politicspunter

And no more stalking , the mods have noticed
By:
TH007
When: 01 Dec 20 22:26
How can Betfair be not settling their roles were clear re projected electoral votes determining the market. They are clearly keeping it open due to high volumes. This is basically illegal, if they were taken to court re this they would clearly lose.
By:
TH007
When: 01 Dec 20 22:26
How can Betfair be not settling their roles were clear re projected electoral votes determining the market. They are clearly keeping it open due to high volumes. This is basically illegal, if they were taken to court re this they would clearly lose.
By:
Dave23
When: 02 Dec 20 00:15
Maybe. However, they neglected to state 'projected' upon what basis as at what date.
By:
Dave23
When: 02 Dec 20 13:19
Fellow forum contributors,

How do you consider Betfair should best word the rules for the ‘Next President’ market in future?

In my opinion, overall, the best option would be to state that the market will be settled based on the Electoral College Vote projections of two named US Networks. It could be stated that it will be settled based on those projections as they stand at 12.00 EST, 7 days after the date of the election.

If either of the named US Networks do not make a projection as at that date or they do not concur on their projections, settlement would be delayed until 12.00 EST on the first subsequent date upon which they make concurring projections.

If no matching projections are made prior to all states certifying their popular vote counts, the market will be settled based on the projected Electoral College Votes based on those certified votes. The current rules will apply to a 269-269 tie or if no candidate otherwise obtains 270 or more projected EC Votes.

I favour it being based on the concurring projections of two distinct US Networks rather than one to minimise the risk of error or manipulation. I favour allowing 7 days from the date of the election to allow time for projections to settle. Betfair would retain the option to settle earlier at their discretion and risk. I favour settling in this manner rather than based upon the projected EC Votes once all states certify their popular vote counts, as it is likely to allow settlement weeks earlier.
By:
dave1357
When: 02 Dec 20 13:24
The rules are fine, betfair should be banned by the UKGC from offering political bets because they can't follow their rules. That solves any future problem.
By:
JML
When: 02 Dec 20 13:26
The settlement should be on what the market is named.
If they want to settle before January they should give the market a slightly different name.
By:
kevinglass
When: 02 Dec 20 13:31
The rules were ok. Perhaps to have named a TV network, on who's basis the projection would be based, would have made sense. As they did on the popular vote with CNN.

However they are yet to settle that market yet, so it would make little difference here, or net time, if someone like Trump and his acolytes contest the election, and Betfair get cold feet.

Funnily enough I always read the rules before I bet, that'll teach me.

If Trump stands in 4 years, then betting on the result will need a significant amount of extra thought.
By:
Dave23
When: 02 Dec 20 13:35
I don't agree that the current rules are fine, dave. If they were clear, there would be very little debate as to what those rules mean, bar possibly a few contrary trolls. I don't think that is the case here.

JML, yes it may be an idea to change the title of the market too, perhaps to US Presidential Election Winner 2024 or similar.
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