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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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@peterthepunter
......and whilst there was no question of the GC intervening directly, it did suggest a practical course of action. Complain, officially. What would complaining to Betfair achieve? my guess is absolutely nothing, but I'm quite happy to listen to other guesses. |
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Basic is if you want action it needs to go
through betfair complaints first. Pretty standard that you have to let them sort your grievance first, before you can complain to a regulator. If you get a knock back as expected then you can progress to next step. As we expect payment around 14 dec there seems little point,... |
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peterthepunter, I suspect that the vast majority of punters would agree that Betfair's communication, as to on what basis and when the 'Next President' market will be settled, could have been better. I don't agree that 'projected' Electoral College votes should necessarily have been perceived to mean US Network projections, although I accept that it may well be the case that most punters did share your interpretation.
yhtl - we probably are betting against the more determined and better resourced members of that group, despite both Betfair's and most agents' understandable reluctance to facilitate US based bettors. |
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Indeed dave23, via their
offshore funds, perhaps... I meant betting against them on outcomes of court cases etc. |
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Yes, quite probably with regards their trust funds. Sorry, I thought you meant betting against them in markets such as 'Next President'.
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The market activity after November 4th has been so one sided, and of such a size that it surely raises the
question of Money Laundering. According to the betfair data the £20 million to £100 million per day has 99% percent followed a pattern of market maker puts up a price of say 1.05--1.06. and the 'punter' taking the 1.06 for £10 or £20 million (i.e. punter is always laying, market maker is always backing) over a few hours. Only £250 will have been traded at 1.05 Those stating that it is just normal traders trading activity have obviously not been analysing what is going on in the market. |
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Regardless of whether or not that is an accurate take on matters Escapee, if you have bets in the market and are showing a profit on Biden or all candidates, I'm not sure that it is a good idea to provide any additional potential reasons for Betfair to further delay settlement?
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yes, I have a few £k in the next president market.
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My potential profit on Biden is probably a little less than your potential profit. However, I wouldn't wish for those bets to be voided on the basis of the possible money laundering of another party (I should probably have used a full stop or exclamation mark, rather than a question mark, above).
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-officially-secures-enough-electors-to-become-president-joe-biden-donald-trump-california-electoral-college-alex-padilla-b1766612.html
Although it’s been apparent for weeks that Biden won the presidential election, his accrual of more than 270 electors is the first step toward the White House, said Edward B. Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University. “It is a legal milestone and the first milestone that has that status,” Foley said. “Everything prior to that was premised on what we call projections.” The same projected votes that the market was supposed to be settled on? Surely not... |
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It really is laughable that we have now exceeded the level of confirmation required to settle the markets but they're still not settled.
RE money laundering, you'd have to think this is happening. I think we're up to 1.5bn now on this market, and we hit 1bn last Thursday (I think), so that's a third of the turnover for the market in the last week or so, when essentially nothing has actually happened. |
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well done betfair, now as long as those ‘ projected ‘ votes don’t change ( lawsuits ) before they are no longer
projected votes you will then be able to pay out very good |
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If they change they can pay out twice
Everybody wins on betfair |
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You see you’re getting there yhtl that’s a dilemma , do betfair want to do that ?
I don’t know |
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I've been there a long time lfc
They've made another right mess, which after 20 years in business they should be doing to themselves. Their biggest ever meerkat, and driving folk away... |
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Shouldn't....
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It’s in everyone’s interest that Betfair are cautious and wait until the courts decision on any lawsuits , which could alter projected votes
That’s what they have done , quite rightly |
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44 courts have already made their decision
oh sorry, I forgot you don't like facts |
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So you accept its for the courts to decide very good
Still some outstanding , when all have been seen then we will know It’s for the courts to decide not you or I |
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Betfair have paid me out on a number of markets over the last 12 hours or so.
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the court filings are purely to create a narrative for the 'official election defense fund' scam to keep attracting donations from idiots - there's no chance of changing anything. in the meantime the Bank of BF continues to offer a very generous 3% interest on deposits. thanks BF!
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6% if you shop around related markets
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Incredulous at people still wanting to back Trump leaving office 2025 or later at 26 or less. They could be backing retaining the presidency on the main market for 30+.
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The scary part is that BF haven't settled, so are clearly not following their own rules.
Does this mean they are prepared to tear them up completely if Trump's coup attempt is successful? |
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Betfair must know they are on iffy ground because under normal circumstances they'd be shouting from the rooftops about the record billion pound market.
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Because of the legal uncertainty swirling around the election, Betfair have already announced they may not settle until the Electoral College vote on the 14th, and if you were in their place, you wouldn't either. The infantile whining on this board has been an embarrassment.
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While it’s crazy to back Trump remaining in office at less than about 1000, I think this is a bet that he remains as president as a dictator having set aside the elections and doesn’t run the risk that Betfair still pays out on Biden, as their rules say they should (already have).
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very good post Chemosabe
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If they'd said the EC vote on the 14th was the standard from the start we'd all have understood, but that's not in the rules. Now not only has Biden met the standard (projected) as of yesterday he far exceeds it (enough certified EC votes). People "whining" just don't want the goalposts moved, and that should be important to anyone who bets on anything on here.
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As long as the predicted votes don’t change that’s fine and good
Stop whining |
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no need to worry - they'll pay out on Biden in due course - in the meantime you can take the generous 3% on deposits from the Bank of BF
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Chemosabe never updated us on his ibas case
On mays leaving date Any news? |
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Fatslogger • December 5, 2020 4:14 PM GM
Yes, this might be the interpretation of someone unable to read, or who was able to eat but didn’t know what the word “projected” meant. a) needs his dinner b) mis-typed "ead" for "read" and was auto-corrected |
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Incidentally, I think everyone should actually complain to betfair at this point. Biden has been certified with a projected majority of electoral college votes now and the rules state he has won. It might be valuable to have that complaint documented should further action be necessary.
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Those that think the remaining open Presidential markets are offering free money, or that Betfair are being reasonable in delaying settlement, ought to note that if Betfair can change the rules once they can do so again.
Suppose this time they change the settlement date to whenever Trump concedes. They may never settle. If you think this is fanciful, have a look at Betfair's PR statements on the subject. They have already referenced the lack of a formal concession as if it bore some sort of relevance to the original market rules. They are making it up as they go along. |
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I think it is free money, although who knows how long payout will take. Betfair will be in serious jeopardy if Trump somehow does the impossible and turns this around now as both Biden and Trump bettors will think they should be paid, and it won't matter if "faithless electors" or "subsequent events" are involved because the market will ignore the rules (why not when bf have) and the odds will go crazy anyway.
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