withdrew from the market

more questions than answers

Betfair's rules explicitly allow for this possibility

care to point to the relevant part of the rules?

The market has now have over £1.5 billion
An increase of one billion since election nite
Quite MAD

Could it reach £2 BILLION?

From this article. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40504.pdf

Chemosabe the rules about what happens "in the event that no candidate receives a majority of the projected electoral college votes" is irrelevant, since Biden already has received a majority of those projected votes, certified by the states. It is to account for what would have happened if a third party candidate had taken enough EC votes to mean there was no outright winner. There was: Biden.

Betfair should settle.

Have read some of this thread with interest, so here's my take...

It seems pretty clear that Betfair got themselves into a mix-up here, with their unclear wording of "projected" EC votes - without defining what that means (which projection, when, etc).  In their defence, in most other US Elections that would have been plenty, as the losing candidate would have conceded when it was clear they'd lost (let's leave 2000 to one side!)  However, in 2020 that wording has proved their undoing. They could have settled on the day that all the networks and AP projected Biden as the winner - but the market was still trading at 1.1 (ish I think) at that point, with millions going in backing Trump. It would be pretty unusual for Betfair to settle a market that still appears so uncertain according to those putting the money in (however wrong we may believe one side to be). 

I think it's reasonable to suggest that they could, or perhaps should, have settled the market when all the networks / AP 'projected' the result, but having not done so, there's not really another really definitive point until 14th December, so it does make some kind of sense that they're then waiting till then.  To do otherwise might please some Biden backers who are keen to get their money and profit, but would equally leave them open to outrage (and potential legal issues - albeit presumably short term ones) from many more on the other side.

Leaving the market until the states all vote definitively for the Electoral College on 14th December is a pretty sensible outcome at this point.  Not good for anyone who is already fully committed and wants to release their funds clearly, but for many this delay has been fantastic.  If you believe the outcome of Biden on 306 is already certain beyond any reasonable doubt then you can still get a return of 6% or maybe even 7% on your money on some of the markets.  So anyone complaining it's a total certainty who HASN'T already committed any available funds should probably be considering it as an almost unique opportunity to make "free money" by backing an already decided outcome!

Equally the Trump fans are presumably delighted that they can still make 5x or more on their money, when their conspiracy theories are surely fully accepted by the US Justice system in the next few days.  Only a matter of time, right?  ;-)

Sit it out, trade where you can and claim your interest at the end, would be my advice. I’ve followed it too!

What would you do if by some miracle Betfair settled for Trump?

This is a serious question by the  way.

While I think Betfair have been capricious, illogical and incompetent, I’m not v worried they’ll spin the market out beyond 14 Dec, although I understand the concern. I’m piling my last few k on Sunday night, I think.

Escappe has answered the question but I was thinking more about betting rather than philosophy. I'm not asking who you think will will but what you would do if Trump won.

Oh, you mean will won't....

When betfair paid out on wrong result previously, ibas instructed them to pay
out on right result.

If folk had backed both, they
only got paid out to best
result, not paid out on both.

Could be expensive this time...

Tick tock

Charlie

I think if Betfair somehow settled for Trump there would be a deluge of legal actions, many of them joint actions.

I imagine both IBAS and the Gambling Commission would become involved (if indeed they have not been unofficially involved already.)

Charlie

Me personally?   It depends on the precise circumstances and how others reacted.   Ideally I would like to join in a class action.

In addition I would almost certainly take my case to IBAS and complain to the Gambling Commission.   I would also write to my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewkesbury) who has a bit of an interest in gambling matters.   [Incidentally, if you happen to be a constituent in Newcastle-under-Lyme, the MP there, Aaron Bell, is very hot on this sort of thing.]

What would you do?

In reply to Peter... I don't disagree that by the only logical interpretation of their rules, they should have settled when all of the respected "projections" said that Biden had won. But that was terribly vague - they never specified what "projected Electoral College votes" meant specifically (which projection etc).  They could, and should, have clarified that before the election as an addendum to the rules - they could even have chosen to do so after the election but before the overall "projections" were made (e.g. "projected Electoral College votes" means when at least five of AP, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC and Fox have all unanimously projected the same total Electoral College votes") . 

But they didn't and that's where they made their main mistake.  December 14th is the only real date before either Trump conceding or the January 20th inauguration where Betfair can say that the overall result has been settled beyond doubt by some legal authority. So it is logical from their perspective (though clearly not mentioned anywhere within their originally stated rules).  If you read the latest blog post they've pretty much stated that they'll settle then - assuming nothing crazy happens in the interim, and I can't see how it would possibly be in their interests to string it out beyond then, as there must be many with six or seven figure sums invested in the market, who might consider action if their money continues to be tied up despite the result being legally and officially confirmed beyond any kind of reasonable doubt.

I'd still suggest anyone on either side of the market use the remaining few days to take full advantage of this pretty unique opportunity. Though if any Trump fans are about to put a market altering sum into the market then please do feel free to give me a heads up first.  ;-)

Either the market maker(s) have some total bombshell information about huge fraud by the Democrats spanning multiple states which would be enough to make the Supreme Court stop the Electoral College Votes proceeding on 14th, or they're just plain wrong and basing their bets on loony internet conspiracy theories.

Betfair messed up with the market rules, they're waiting till the 14th to settle to cover themselves legally (they've essentially said that in their blog post!)

peter
Apologies for not replying earlier but I have been unable to post replies for a few days.

I don't think I'd do anything as Betfair's Rules were sufficiently vague for them to settle how they deemed fit. If the market is open then there must surely be a way for me to lose if I keep betting unless it really is the proverbial free money; I've also had several chances to trade out which I haven't taken.

Agree Clyde but the end is in sight, at least. If I’d managed to do a lot of useful trading or had extra reserves of cash to bring in to buy money on top of the £10k I’d already mobilised, I’d have been quite happy with the market staying open on a completely sure thing. As it is though, it’s been a bit irritating. It stopped me getting a final top up in the LPL T20 game yesterday which would have been worth at least £250 in the end, although to be fair, in other circumstances it might have saved me the same amount.

Charlie, I’ve been locked out of the forum for the last couple of days too. Probably a break from arguing with Covid disinformation purveyors has been good for me though.

Predictit is a useful guide for USA politics. It's full of nutters and rampers but can have some useful info snippets in the comments sections. Why oh why would anyone, in their right mind, open accounts just to throw away their money? Well, that's the hold Trump and certain media channels have on some folks, seeing the same pish relayed into their living room daily   means many fall for his garbage.