Do you guys know the next election is 4, maybe 4 and a half years away ?

A thread like this keeping track of polling data is of interest in itself certainly, but some comments seem overexcited about the implications of the data right now.

Imagine the highest profile political pundits had been asked - 4 and a half years ago - to predict the UK political scene of Summer 2020....

I expect most of them would have told us that George Osborne would be setting out his agenda for the decade to come after crushing Corbyn. Instead Osborne got nowhere near being PM and is an almost forgotten figure already.

I'm far from excited a corrupt tory government,with a bland middle of the road labour party neither of which will improve peoples lives not unless labour plan on election promises and with this cabinet seems unlikely..the only thing is it gives me some hope in that people are seeing through the lies and filth johnson has brought.

Giggs,

I have no doubt whatsoever that Labour lost the last election because of Corbyn and a few others that were too left.
I know you have a different view but the left will never remove them. No chance.
Everything you say about the Tories is the gospel truth and it needs saying and I do my bit as well.
I was in my twenties by the middle of the sixties and supported my dad who was a union man through and through.
He was a shop steward at Hoovers along the western avenue  for twenty odd years and with his mates won a good few battles.
Out of the seventies and into the eighties the only thing the unions achieved was Maggie Thatcher.

My point is the unions did much the same in the last decade. They will never achieve what they want by trying to dictate to the money.
Unions are there to get the best rates for the workers and the best way of achieving that is to work with the bosses.
The biggest price the working man paid was losing the millions of jobs because strikes sent the money to safer climates.

When I see your stuff its always a good read and I agree with so much of it but guys of your intelligence should be fighting the good fight not demanding the undeliverable.
Money works best when there is profits for all, its the only way.
Corbyn failed because his presentation was wrong. The shame of it was he was right but fought the fight in the wrong cloths. A decent man who could have done so much good.

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (+5)
CON: 35% (-11)
PC: 15% (+4)
LDEM: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-1)

via
@YouGov
, 29 May - 01 Jun
Chgs. w/ Apr

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-favourability-towards-boris-johnson-continues-fall

Not really being replicated in opinion polls, yet.

Oddly enough Jeremy hunt has looked like a sage, compared
to those around him. I really didn't expect that.

(obviously I think Sunak is doing a job job, but hunt
has been dealing with issues around health and corona)

Jeremy Hunt is looking a class act now because he is no longer in fear of his job, in fact he is doing a job on the Tories.

Revenge is sweet and he is lapping it up.

Keep it up Jeremy, replacing the fat one is not so far fetched.

UK (Scotland), Panelbase poll:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes: 52% (+2)
No: 48% (-2)

+/- vs. 1-5 May 2020

Fieldwork: 28 May - 5 June 2020
Sample size: 1,022

UK (Wales), YouGov poll:

Should Wales be an independent country?

Yes: 32% (+5)
No: 68% (-5)

+/- 20-26 January 2020

Fieldwork: 29 May - 1 June 2020
Sample size: 1,021

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 41% (-4)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDM: 7% (-1)
GRN: 4% (=)
BXP: 1% (+1)

Via @Survation, 3 Jun.
Changes w/ 22-26 May.

Oo ah, Cantona

Survation – L'drshp Favourability:
Johnson / Starmer
Net: +1% (-17) / +17% (-)
Favourable 44% (-8) / 39% (+1)
Neutral 13% (-2) / 30% (-)
Unfavourable 42% (+9) / 22% (+1)
Don’t know 1% (+1) / 6% (-1)
Haven’t heard 0% (-) / 4% (-1)
1018 respondents, 3June 2020. Changes w/ 22-26 May

Starmer now has a NET 35% approval lead over Boris

NET Approval Ratings for Party Leaders:

Keir Starmer (LAB): +28% (+3)
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +19% (+6)
Boris Johnson (CON): -7% (-2)
Ed Davey (LDM): -3% (+5)

Opinion Research 6th June

Probably the happiest person after tonights polls is Nicola Sturgeon. SNP vote rock solid, her approval ratings up again, Labour and tories splitting the unionist Scotland vote.

% thinking each is doing well/badly at their job

Boris Johnson as PM
Well: 43% (-14)
Badly: 50% (+15)

Keir Starmer as Labour leader
Well: 48% (+8)
Badly: 21% (+4)

Yougov

NEW
@Survation
Poll – Leadership approval:
Johnson / Starmer
Net: +3% (+2) / +14% (-2)
Favourable 43% (-) / 37% (-1)
Neutral 15% (+2) / 31% (+1)
Unfavourable 40% (-2) / 23% (+1)
DK 1% (-) / 5% (-1)
1,062 respondents, fieldwork 9-10 June 2020. Changes w/ 3 June 2020.

Yes, the "don't know" figure for Starmer is gradually coming down as he becomes better known.

Indeed

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-9)
LAB: 38% (+8)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-1)

via
@IpsosMORI

Chgs. w/ 16 Mar

The next question in all of this has to be whether there is a Tory floor of 40% that they will not fall below ?