Politics
A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings
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Hancock - 1 is a head scratcher.
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For the first time since early March, more people now disapprove of the government (42%) than approve (39%) https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=government_approval_tracker
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I see absolutely no use in polls.
If they say what you think they are good, if they don't they are dismissed. I didn't like Corbyn mainly because of the press reports, I hadn't seen him in action until I watched a few of his presentations and then, like a lot of people, I came round to him. I don't like Starmer and I have seen him in action. To me he is wooden and emotionless and obviously the best of a pretty bad bunch. He may grow on me but I think he will have his hands full when Boris comes back fighting. Corbyn wasn't poor in the last year he had nothing to fight with. Starmer will be the same even if this gets worse. |
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Here is some advice for you. If you "see absolutely no use in polls" don't bet on politics.
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Unfortunately for you brigust you completely overestimate Johnson ...the guy is simply a chancer without any real orating skills and despite seemingly being able to spin the media there is no real substance to him. You may dislike Starmer but he is diligent; articulate and can disseminate the offerings of the PM who doesn't inspire confidence in being able to take charge of situations whenever there is a need to step up.
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Sadly for you Geordie is maybe you really don't understand people. Remember Bill Clinton or even Silvio Burlesconi. Like Boris they had/have charisma and charm and class. Three things Starmer definitely does not have.
PP to me pollsters are like tipsters in horse racing. I ignore them unless they agree with me.  |
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When did I lose money betting on politics?
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You seem to suggest betting on politics is a class thing or perhaps one needs to be more knowledgable than when gambling on other markets, PP. It isn't. It is gambling just like any gambling.
You think something is going to happen or not happen and you bet on it. In horse racing I think something is going to happen or not happen and I bet on it. |
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Lordy. If Betfair could ever design the perfect losing customer...
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Don't be so rude. What do you disagree with Porc? Perhaps you don't bet on things you think may or may not happen?
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Betting is (or should be) about assessing chance, not absolutes. I think Huddersfield have a 60% chance of beating Barnsley etc. If a bookie is offering a significantly better return than that then I'll back it. The trick - as always - as in ensuring that the data and information I use in reaching that 60% decision is as good as possible.
The worst thing is to just be a fan and back the Terriers because I support them and want them to win. Easiest way to the poor house. That's what PP is getting at here. The same rule applies for politics as it does for any sport. If you're having a bet, you're a fool if you're just basing it on what you want to happen. He's spent several days stating how he uses data from opinion polls to help inform his opinion on betting value, the same opinion polls used by political parties, the media and Tufton St lobbyists at a cost of millions of pounds per year. Your response is that you "see no use in polls". So you know better than the rest of the political mainstream apparently. No problem in you not doing all this work, and indeed being more impressed by politicians showing charisma. I'd just be careful sneering at and arguing against people on here who clearly do invest a lot of time into the machinations of politics and know a lot more about it than you do. |
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Do you mean like the day I watched Cracksman win his first race at Newmarket and noticed he ran the final furlong in less strides that Frankel, I then read what J Gosden's plans were for him the next day so I backed him at varying prices from 40s to 33s to win £25k to win the Derby nine months later where he started at 7/2f. I also laid off to a good profit at prices in running down to 6/4. All fully documented, in detail, on here from the day after his first race. Is that what you mean.
Or perhaps you mean the £2 I had on in December on Lucy Powell at 600 to be the next Labour leader. That's probably what you mean. I am too busy or out of the country to bet very often but I think I know what I am doing. |
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Well from what I have read on here about pollsters and polls and approval ratings when no-one seems to think there is a reason behind who employs the pollsters and for what reasons. The fact that newspapers headlines and polls are designed to suit their readers own political bias beggars belief. I have not read anything on here that suggests any of you know anything of note. That may change of course, until then I will keep hoping. Before that I suggest you get along to the football or racing forum, you may just learn something about betting.
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I don't read newspapers. I don't bet on horses. I don't bet on greyhounds. I don't consider myself to be a gambler. Go ahead ahead and gamble all you like.
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Oh dear
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Life's a gamble PP. You gamble every time you get up, every time you eat something and every time you drink something. Every time you go out in the car, on the bike or in a plane. |
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I don't consider myself a gambler regarding politics. The folks like you who bet against me are gamblers.
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Oh....my....gawd!! |
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don't....don't....don't....stop it....stop it.....stop it
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (-2) LAB: 33% (+3) LDEM: 6% (-1) via @YouGov , 18 - 19 May Chgs. w/ 06 May |
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Is there money to be made from this information?
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Clearly not for you.
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That is all I need to know.
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Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? (18-19 May)
Boris Johnson 39% (-7 from mid-April) Keir Starmer 27% (+5) Don't know 29% |
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Above from yougov (18th-19th May)
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I have been told, by a very reliable source, that Starmer takes less strides to walk from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace than Johnson.
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Ah but Johnson has to stop at the off licence on the way there.
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What is the collective term for a gaggle of losers?
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More useless information. Be sure I will let you know when I think you report something worth knowing.
 By the way, on the horse racing forum it is reported a horse galloped this morning prior to its first outing in 2025 and its performance was a little underwhelming so hold your fire on bets at this moment in time. Solid information from a proven source. 'YouLot' I think. |
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You should stick to the horse racing forum, your talents are wasted here.
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https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31645037/anyone-use-anydesk?post_id=559311375#559311375#flvWelcomeHeader
brigust1, perhaps you should stick to bitcoin mining ? You managed to lose your money quite easily there. |
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I am always willing to learn. Sadly all I have learned on this forum so far is that Guardian reports and meaningless polls are often discussed but I have time. I am sure something useful will come along.
The above thread is confirmation that I do not claim to know everything and I am prepared to listen to others. And, after all, some on here have suggested they know everything so this is definitely the place to be. |
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Well, hopefully you will have understood from being a mug elsewhere that there is no easy route to winning. If you study and identify value, you can make money betting on politics.
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Brigust1,
A few days ago I sent some pms to folks on here (I rarely post bets now because of abusive eejits) regarding a wrongly priced market for the upcoming USA elections. I was going to send it to you just to show you what value can be had but you kept being dismissive and abusive so I didn't bother. Yesterday the price I recommended taking was cut in half. |
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There is no need to be rude PP. I enjoy a bit of banter just like anyone else.
I don't want any tips, thank you. If you are as good as you say you are just put the information up and stand or fall by it like everyone else. And, just for your information, don't tell anyone else, I haven't lost any money bitcoin mining. You will be the first to know when I do. |
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