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A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings
A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/
It's gonna be close  |
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Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):
LAB: 38% (+6) CON: 36% (-8) LDM: 9% (-3) GRN: 7% (+4) BXP: 4% (+2) SNP: 4% (=) Via @focaldataHQ, 4-29 Dec. Changes w/ GE2019. Sample: ~22,186 Big sample size |
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Seats:
CON 284 LAB 282 SNP 57 LD 2 + PM losing seat |
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Lib dems say...
This MRP is very innacurate. A More accurate projection from flavible using these percentages is: Lab: 290 Con: 270 SNP: 52 LDEM: 14 PC: 4 IND: 1 GRN: 1 |
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Both versions mean a Labour/SNP coalition.
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Georgia Senate Runoff Polling:
Regular: Ossoff (D): 50% Perdue (R): 47% Special: Warnock (D): 49% Loeffler (R): 47% Gravis / December 30, 2020 / n=1011 / MOE 3.1% / IVR/Online |
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would fancy the GOP for both Georgia seats - until Trump it was a Republican stronghold. The polls may favour the Dems but I think you still have to factor-in polling not capturing the GOP vote for whatever reason.
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I was surprised by Trafalgar poll, which seems
to capture GOP vote. |
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Georgia Senate Runoff Polling:
Regular: Ossoff (D): 51% Perdue (R): 47% Special: Warnock (D): 51% Loffler (R): 47% AtlasIntel / January 1, 2020 / n=1680 / MOE 2% / Telephone/Online |
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Georgia Senate Runoff Polling:
Special: Warnock (D): 46% Loeffler (R): 45% Regular: Ossoff (D): 46% Perdue (R): 45% National Research Inc. / January 3, 2020 / n=500 / Telephone (Republican Internal) |
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Georgia Senate Runoff Polling:
Special: Warnock (D): 49% (-) Loeffler (R): 49% (+2) Regular: Ossoff (D): 49% (+1) Perdue (R): 49% (-) InsiderAdvantage / January 3, 2020 / n=500 / MOE 4.4% / Telephone/Online (% chg w December 22, 2020) |
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Trump Job Approval Polling:
Approve: 33% (-11) Disapprove: 60% (+9) Quinnipiac / January 11, 2021 / n=1239 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone (% chg w December 11, 2020) 33% lol |
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Wow, that's as bad as I have ever seen for any POTUS.
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'Do you think Trump is undermining or protecting democracy?'
Undermining: 60% Protecting: 34% Quinnipiac / January 10, 2021 / n=1239 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone I take it 1% were confused by the interview. |
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'Do you think Trump is mentally stable or not?'
Yes He Is: 45% No He Isn't: 48% Quinnipiac / January 10, 2021 / n=1239 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone Not that general public would know... |
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'Do you consider what happened at the US capitol on January 6th a coup attempt or not?'
Yes: 47% No: 43% Quinnipiac / January 10, 2021 / n=1239 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone |
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'Do you want to see the individuals who stormed the US capitol on January 6 held accountable for their actions or not?'
Yes: 91% No: 6% Quinnipiac / January 10, 2021 / n=1239 / MOE 2.8% / Telephone |
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More at
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3686 ... |
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+1) LAB: 37% (-) LDEM: 8% (-1) GRN: 5% (-1) REFUK: 2% (+2) via @RedfieldWilton, 11 Jan Chgs. w/ 02 Dec Lol |
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Trump Approval Polling:
Approve: 29% Disapprove: 68% PEW Research / January 12, 2020 / n=5630 / Online Worst ever! |
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The sudden drop in PEW opinion polling for Trump has to do with the -17% drop among Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
Trump went from 77% support among GOP members to 60% |
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'Is Kamala Harris Qualified To Be President?'
Yes: 50% No: 47% PEW Research / January 12, 2020 / n=5630 / Online |
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There's a date typo above its 2021,....lol,not mine this time
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'Should Trump be charged with the crime of inciting a riot due to the events at the US Capitol?'
Should Be Charged: 54% Should Not Be Charged: 43% ABC/WaPo / January 13, 2021 / n=1002 / Telephone |
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London mayoral voting intention, first round:
S. Khan (Lab): 49% S. Bailey (Con): 28% L. Porritt (LDem): 11% S. Berry (Grn): 10% P. Gammons (UKIP): 2% via @RedfieldWilton |
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Britain elects
Scottish parliament, poll-based forecast: SNP: 72 MSPs (+9 vs. 2016) CON: 24 (-7) LAB: 19 (-5) GRN: 9 (+3) LDEM: 5 (-) Built by BE's very own @bnhw_, here's what we believe is the most likely outcome for the Holyrood elections based on current poll data. |
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Was it a multi choice prompted, with rose left out?
Dunno, maybe Gammons4London will catch on... |
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Georgia: 2024 GOP Presidential Polling:
With Trump: Trump: 73% Cruz: 5% Rubio: 3% Haley: 3% Romney: 2% Christie: 1% Without Trump: Pence: 36% Cruz: 15% Haley: 8% Romney: 6% Rubio: 3% Christie: 1% UNLV / January 3, 2021 / n=550 / Online |
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Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (+1) CON: 37% (-2) LDM: 6% (=) SNP: 6% (+1) GRN: 4% (=) Via @OpiniumResearch, 14-15 Jan. Changes w/ 6-7 Jan. |
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SNP are at 62% in that poll by Opinion Research which is quite incredible.
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UK, Survation poll:
CON-ECR: 40% (+1) LAB-S&D: 38% LDEM-RE: 7% (-1) GREENS-G/EFA: 5% (+1) SNP-G/EFA: 4% (-1) PC-G/EFA: 1% (+1) BREXIT~NI: 0% (-1) +/- vs. 22 Dec Fieldwork: 12-13 January 2021 Sample size: 1,033 |
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Remember that Survation opinion polls are UK based rather than GB based as with nearly all others.
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That is right on the limit of 3% MOE for both parties
with opinium. |
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Welsh parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency: LAB: 34% (-4) CON: 26% (-1) PC: 22% (+2) GRN: 6% (+3) REFUK: 5% (+5) LDEM: 4% (+1) List: LAB: 30% (-3) CON: 25% (+1) PC: 23% (+3) ABOLISH: 7% (-) GRN: 5% (+1) REFUK: 4% (+4) LDEM: 4% (-) via @YouGov , 11-14 Jan Chgs. w/ 30 Oct |
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Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 36% (-7) CON: 33% (+1) PC: 17% (+4) REFUK: 5% (+5)* GRN: 4% (+1) LDEM: 3% (-) via @YouGov , 11 - 14 Jan Chgs. w/ 30 Oct 2020 No chg. w/ prev. Brex % (5%). |
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Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (-) CON: 38% (-1) GRN: 6% (-1) LDEM: 5% (-1) REFUK: 3% (-) via @YouGov , 13 - 14 Jan Chgs. w/ 04 Jan |
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'Will you watch the inauguration?'
Yes: 41% No: 38% Unsure: 21% -- 'Main reason for watching?' Hear Biden's Speech: 55% See If There's Going To Be Protests/Violence: 6% Both: 37% -- Leger / January 17, 2021 / n=1003 / Online Lol, how accurate answers are likely to be to that second question must be in some doubt. |
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GOP 2024 Primary Polling (All Americans - With Trump):
Trump: 29% Romney: 19% Pence: 13% Haley: 7% Cruz: 6% Hogan: 6% Rubio: 3% Tim Scott: 3% Sasse: 3% Trump Jr: 2% Pompeo: 2% Rick Scott: 2% DeSantis: 2% Leger / January 17, 2021 / n=1003 / Online |
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GOP 2024 Primary Polling (All Americans - Without Trump):
Pence: 22% Romney: 20% Trump Jr: 11% Cruz: 9% Haley: 8% Hogan: 7% Rubio: 4% Ivanka Trump: 3% Pompeo: 3% DeSantis: 3% Tim Scott: 3% Sasse: 3% Hawley: 2% Leger / January 17, 2021 / n=1003 / Online |