Politics
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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Settling when May leaves Downing St, is my take. Plenty of time to manage your position. Everybody happy?
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its when she stops being leader of tories
for me, thats when she stops being leader of the tories which is when they say she is no longer leader, or she say, or it is reasonable to infer she is no longer leader that is more than her resignation, imo. |
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Lifter read again - the Telegraph quote says departing Prime Minister stays on in caretaker role. Shes not resigned as PM so 'caretaker' refers to her role as leader of the party.
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Many inferred that she was no longer leader of the Tories after the terrible reception in Europe to her offer that she could be " a bridge" between them and the USA in Feb '17.
Since, she has been a bullet-shield for Euro-sceptics to hide behind. In reality, May has not led the Tory party since. Giving up last week was simply a bureaucratic exercise. The only fair resolution is to settle her abdication not in May, when it was announced, or June, when starts the process of appointing her successor, but July, when she really "exits." |
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Yes, she stays on as PM, despite not being party leader.
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I am 100% sure that she is no longer the leader of the Conservative party on June 7th. I have absolutely no doubt about that. All the reports are also very clear that she is resigning as leader of the Conservative party on 7th June and will stay on as PM until a successor is found. During the period of the leadership election there will be no Conservative party leader. the position will be vacant.
The question is what Betfair interpret the rules as, as it appears they have gotten it wrong based on CS conversations they have had. However equally I have had a conversation with CS where they have very clearly stated word for word that it is when she resigns not when a successor is found. |
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Disagree. Happily, you have a lot of time to mediate your positions. No whining afterwards, please.
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if you are 100% sure on all known evidence the 2/1 on hear must be a godsend to you
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It is Donny, I am quiet confident I will have a good day come June 7th. My concern isn’t that I am wrong about when May is no longer the Tory party leader. It is that Betfair are.
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https://twitter.com/theresa_may "Prime Minister and @Conservatives Leader".
Let's see when it changes. |
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 Are you unlucky at chess, Libertine? |
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They are two different jobs - PM and leader of party.
Theoretically it quite possible for someone to be leader of the party and another to be PM. Doesn't happen - but it could. The market is clear, its about party leader - nothing to do with PM. Not involved really - I'm just confused as to why there is confusion (on Betfair's part) |
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Well no. In peacetime, the PM's job is predicated on being the leader of the party entrusted to govern. Otherwise the country could veer a long way from democracy.
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Samaritans will be ringing off the hook when this is settled
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Before then
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Name a politician who is not the leader of his or her party who can await such a call.
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btw I have theorised a rational explanation as to the date of the 7th. May might have thought that the date was confidential until she announced it on the 7th and she could do the trump/d-day stuff without anyone knowing, but she might have been bounced into announcing it on friday.
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Unfortunately, this mess is the only consequence of the the Brexit-front using May as a bullet-shield for the last 30 months.
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I don't know if it will be July...but it won't be June unless all the new PM candidates decide to step aside for Borris.
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It'll be when she ceases to be leader of the Tory party.
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It'll be when Betfair decides she is officially no longer the leader.
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The only person that can accept the resignation of the Prime minister is the monarch. May will be PM until she goes to the palace and tells the Queen she is resigning.
She is not going to the palace on June 7th and yet she is 'stepping down' on that date. So what is she stepping down from on that date, other than the Tory leadership ? |
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Why people think Prime Minister/Tory Leader are the same thing amazes me !
For practical purposes they almost always would be the same whenever Tories have most seats but FORMALLY they are different because a Tory leader can only be decided by the Tories and a PM can only be decided by the Queen. So these things are formalities but surely the only 'official' results will be when these formalities are carried out. The Queen has no role in the Tory party and plays no role in leadership changes. The only official way for a Tory leader to cease being leader is to resign which she says she'll do on June 7th. |
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'remaining in office' is a ministerial term that does not relate to Tory leadership.
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I would advise you & anyone else thinking of putting anymore of their hard earned money into this market to check with CS on their interpretation of the rules & what they define as an 'official leader' before parting with any more cash as no one deserves to be financially stung due to Bet fairs vague rules on this market.
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2things come out of this thread.political markets involving dates on here are very dangerous & should be avoided.any advice offered by CS should be taken with a pinch of salt,if they give a definitive answer it’s a guess,adjudicating on market disputes is not in their job description.
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Yep I certainly wouldn't be betting much on it.
At last General Election they finally settled 'next Prime Minister' on May getting a majority for her Queen's Speech, something that was mentioned nowhere in the market rules. |
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There is "EXIT dates - Theresa May", "EXIT dates - Vince Cable", "EXIT dates - Jeremy Corbyn". The Betfair trading team know that the market is for leader, what some CS staff know is another story.
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Either way, I'd rather go by the market rules.
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If on June 7th, Conservatives announce that Theresa May has ceased her role as leader of the Conservatives, what does Betfair do then?
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