Politics
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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The rules of the market are very clear, there is no need to ask Betfair anything. It's like asking whether I need Liverpool to score if I bet on Liverpool to score. With that said, I have had confirmation today that the market will be settled upon Theresa May ceasing to be leader, whether that is June 7th, or after.
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Just need to wait for an official announcement from the Conservatives.
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If Befair CS have advised you there's a chance of May still being leader after the 7th June then her resignation date in this political context is meaningless.
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Betfair's market is clearly Tory leader, with no mention of prime minister. The CS are not going to decide the market, anymore than someone behind the counter in William Hill decides how the company settles. Any report you look at states she is resigning as leader on June 7th and continuing as caretaker prime minister. If people who lay June Exit have screenshots with CS telling them that May is leader until the election is over I still can't see how Betfair will pay out when May has given a speech saying she has quit as leader and the position is vacant.
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To the best of my knowledge She's never said her position is vacant.
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What is gonna happen on June 7th ? Is May really going to say 'I resign the leadership of the Conservative party but will continue as leader until the election is over' ? It makes no sense at all. She would just have said last week I resign as leader effective at end of election. I mean June 24 2016 Cameron said 'I am resigning as leader effective on the election of my successor' He didn't say 'I am resigning on July 1st' and the on July 1st announce he had resigned but would stay in til the election was complete!
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It will be vacant when she resigns on June 7th.
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Guess we'll have to wait until 7th June to find out when some will be scratching their heads wondering why the market is still open, best of luck with your bet.
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The only confusion is over what Betfair deems to be an official leader in this political context.
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Until Theresa May leaves No10, she has no duties as leader of the party. Nor would any nominal replacement party leader. The ‘22 committee (not her) said she was standing down on 7th June as a technical formality demanded by their constitution to initiate the leadership contest. David Cameron did the same in June ‘16, leaving in July ‘16. There was a similar gap w/ Tim Farron.
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There was a similar gap w/ Tim Farron.
Why do you repeat nonsense? This has already been shown to be irrelevant. The LD constitution specifically states that the leader continues until the election concludes. There is no such stipulation in the Labour or Tory constitution. |
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That could have a bearing, dave. What about Cameron?
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As stated above as well Cameron specifically didn't resign.
I held nothing back, I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone – not the future of any single politician including myself. But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. This is not a decision I’ve taken lightly but I do believe it’s in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required. There is no need for a precise timetable today but in my view we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October. Delivering stability will be important and I will continue in post as Prime Minister with my Cabinet for the next three months. |
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Dave is quoting Cameron's resignation speech. May's resignation speech makes no mention either, because standing down as party leader is simply a necessary mechanism to enable the leadership race. According to Wiki, Cameron was party leader until July '16. Again, according to Wiki, Cameron resigned from being party leader directly after the referendum, in June. Indeed, he would have to have done so, to conform with the constitution of the '22 committee, according to dave's link.
Whether Betfair had a Cameron Exit mkt I don't know but, if they did, commonsense suggests it would have been settled in July. If the May Exit mkt is settled in June but she leaves in July, Betfair would have to defy public perception and settle subsequent mkts on such a precedent, and maybe revisit mkts already settled in line with public expectation. |
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What happened with Cameron is irrelelevant. It is totally clear she is resigning on june 7th. This is the exit date for party leader. nobody has provided any quotes or evidence to the contrary. All other comments are guess work.
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Irrelevant to you, Celeric, but obviously not irrelevant to Betfair, since how they settle one market determines how they settle other markets of the same ilk.
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Uh huh.
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As Robert Peston says, "we could have weird few weeks of May as PM and @BorisJohnson (eg) as Tory leader". They are two different jobs, they don't have to be handed over on the same day.
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camerons speech, like mays, makes no indication of intent to be party leader, or not,
after resignation. once again some folk are confusing resignation with leaving post they may be simultaneous and they may not |
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UB this is what May said
So I am today announcing that I will resign as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen. I have agreed with the Party Chairman and with the Chairman of the 1922 Committee that the process for electing a new leader should begin in the following week. I have kept Her Majesty the Queen fully informed of my intentions, and I will continue to serve as her Prime Minister until the process has concluded. So she said: I will resign as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June Cameron said: There is no need for a precise timetable today There couldn't be more of a contrast. |
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But Cameron did resign as leader of the Conservative party directly after the ref. , according to Wiki; and for the same reason as May, as a mechanism to set a timetable for the election of his successor. Yet in any meaningful sense, Cameron's exit was July.
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wiki isn't a credible source. The word and letters of people involved in the process and procedural documents are the only credible sources.
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What you're saying, dave, is that you weren't there when Cameron resigned as leader of the party, so maybe it didn't happen.
But the '16 leadership contest could not have happened until Cameron resigned leadership of the Conservative party, according to you link. |
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No I'm saying that there was a distinct contrast between Cameron and May.
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If people think the Cameron and May resignations are the same, and that they will both be leader until the successor is elected, why did Cameron not give a precise date that he would step down.
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Cameron said he is resigning, but gave no date. May said she is resigning, but gave a date.
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Nevertheless, Cameron had to resign leadership of the party before the '16 leadership contest could be framed.
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Cameron effectively 'gave his notice' that he would be leader til his successor was elected.
May gave notice that she will be leader until June 7th. |
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No, the constitution of the '22 committee requires that the leader resigns before a leadership contest can be triggered. They were preparing to change that constitution to force a second vote of no-confidence in May, which is why May agreed to the timeframe of her departure which begins, as it did in '16, with resigning the party leadership.
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But the election process is predicated on May or Cameron resigning the leadership of the party, according to their constitution. That is the first step.
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So, you're saying that May will no longer be leader of the party in June, to get the election process going?
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Arguably, but in any meaningful sense, her exit date is her exit date. Officially, Cameron was leader of the party until he left No10 and May succeeded him.
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