Politics
Why can you still back May to leave at 1.15?
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'Officially' she will be 'stepping down' on June 7th. She has made a clear distinction between Leader and PM
This is just a typical report of what will happen... "Under the plans revealed on Friday, May will resign as Conservative party leader in two weeks time but stay on as prime minister until the Conservative Party has chosen her successor." |
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Well, we'll see what the history books say..
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Will be interesting to see when her twitter changes from "PM and leader of the @Conservatives"
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she does not need to cease being leader, she just needs to resign to trigger election.
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Betfair obviously can't settle until there is evidence that she is no longer leader. A new leader would act as the easiest evidence, hence why that is repeated.
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No, it's because Betfair believe it's how it has always been done. Not taking the easy option, just their belief precedence dictates the leader remains in place until the new leader is chosen.
Either way, the market isn't confused by party leader and PM. It's been debated to death on here and Twitter. |
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Just telling you what Betfair have told me
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They just need evidence she is no longer leader is settle. "and this will be used by Betfair to overrule their current position". So you've heard the same. If "tort leader" is removed from her job profile in June, then market will be settled to reflect this.
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As with every decision you take in any market, you assess the risk compared with the potential reward and decide if it's worth taking or not and to what extent. Over time the parameters change and you make further decisions if the situation has not fully resolved itself. I still hold my modest position in this market.
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A number of CS who are in contact with the trading team. Others have been told the same.
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The problem is that May's language has undermined betfair's apparent interpretation. If she had simply said that she was going to resign on Friday, without mentioning a date, like Cameron, there wouldn't be a problem. But she didn't do that. She said specifically that she was stepping down on the 7th and that she was staying on as PM until a new leader was elected. That did two things. It left an uncertainty - she could change her mind between now and the 7th (think your horse finishing third and needing the 1st and 2nd needing to be DQ'd to win)
 and it clearly split the roles of PM and leader. |
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'she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen'
Only the Tory Party can say what is official here, so odd terminology for Betfair to use. My reading of this is that Sir Graham Brady demanded from her a date upon which she would cease to be leader of the Conservative Party. He could not ask for a date for her to cease being PM as that formality is nothing to do with him. If she didn't give a date then the rule change on the confidence vote was going to go through. So she gave June 7th. Cameron resigned of his own volition, there was no months of build up of demanding a date from him. On June 7th she is surely going to make some announcement. If she says 'I am resigning as leader of the party today, and it will be effective upon my successor's election' , or 'I will remain as leader until end of the election' then I will accept my loss.. If she says 'I am resigning as leader today, it has been an honour to serve this party, this is my last day etc but I will remain as Prime Minister until...' so that the position is clearly vacant, then surely Betfair must settle June as the winner. They have created a market on when May will cease to be leader. There is no mention in the rules of successors being chosen or who is Prime Minister. If they are not settling it would be like having a market on when Mourinho ceased to be manager of Man United but not settling December 2018 as the winner because his permanent successor was not chosen til March. The position, it seems to me, will be vacant. There is no requirement for there to be a conservative leader, the leader does not even have no role in the leadership election. |
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I agree with Templeton Peck and furthermore, Betfair will be mindful that how they settle this market will impact on settlement of future markets, potentially leading to results that defy commonsense interpretation.
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It will certainly defy common sense if she announces she is no longer leader and Betfair are pretending that she is.
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If she had simply said that she was going to resign on Friday, without mentioning a date
you are once again confusing resign with leaving post |
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It will certainly defy common sense if she announces she is no longer leader and Betfair are pretending that she is.
no if she declares she is no longer leader that will be clarification that is required |
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Why would she re-announce something that has no practical consequence except to enable the race to appoint her successor? It's not like she spends half her time being PM and half her time being party leader. Her "job" is exactly the same until she vacates 10 Downing St..
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Agree with that Dave, that's the only alternative explanation.
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but if it is more or less symbolic
shouldn't be punting short odds on symbolism, imo |
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she was specifically forced by 1922 committee to outline a timetable whereas cameron was not
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Vacating Downing Street is really not relevant to the market we have.
Theresa May will still be Prime Minister even when someone else is officially Tory leader. For however many hours or days elapse between the Tory result and the new leader emerging from the palace. |
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The '22 committee were under pressure to get the PM to agree a timetable for departure, and were preparing to alter their constitution to force the issue. Whereas David Cameron's resignation was voluntary; indeed, Brexit-plotters were hoping to advance behind Cameron's corpse. Looking at subsequent events, Cameron made the right decision (for himself). And the Trump state visit may have been a factor this time.
The '16 leadership contest was resolved in less than three weeks, so June backers shouldn't abandon hope yet. |
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The election could only be done in June if Boris makes the two and his opponent accepts they have no chance with a member vote.
Surely though they would not make Top 2 and then surrender, it would not be a good look for them to duck it. |
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there is no reason it has to be two in the rules, but an uncontested members ballot would
likely see victor announced in june Successive rounds of voting will take place until a final choice of candidates to put to a vote of all party members is determined. We expect that process to be concluded by the end of June, allowing for a series of hustings around the UK for members to meet and question the candidates, then cast their votes in time for the result to be announced before Parliament rises for the summer.” |
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Well that did happen last time. The Tory party psychodrama could go anywhichway.
The tragedy is that, just as Macron predicted, the country is just spunking away the time of the extension. Our political system used to be the UK's great strength and now it is our great weakness. |
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i dont know why the parties went down the public vote route
im all for democracy and all that but opening up every business on the high street to public instruction from folk that pay a couple of quid each is not a good way forward, imo |
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In truth, I think Cameron was a callow politician. A boy in an adult job.
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I'm out of this market now due to donnys point about resignation date not automatically being the date you leave your post. Further if you can be a caretaker PM you can certainly be a caretaker party leader and I don't trust BF not to treat a caretaker role as having officially left the post.
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If she is caretaker leader then she is party leader. Why would they need a caretaker leader though, there is nothing required to do as Tory leader before the party conference.
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If she says herself that she has left the post on June 7th, and is Prime Minister but no longer party leader, then it can't get more 'official' than that.
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It doesn't matter what any us think, all that matters is what Betfair thinks as when we put our hard earned money into this market we are agreeing to abide by their discretionary rules on settlement.
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This started as a "free munny" thread; now it's a few people blocking their ears, telling each other it's going to be all right.
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