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Dr Crippen
24 Jan 19 11:06
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Date Joined: 16 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 56,285 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
As discussed in Parliament recently.

A ‘Managed No Deal’ WTO option using Article 24 of GATT can avoid raising tariffs or quotas''

All explained here.

https://brexitcentral.com/managed-no-deal-wto-option-using-article-24-gatt-can-avoid-raising-tariffs-quotas/

''In the event of No Deal, there is a strong case to maintain preferential tariff and quota rates at zero between the UK and the EU for a limited period – thought to be around two years.''

Time enough I would think to come to some long term trading agreement, free from the negative influence of treacherous UK MPs whose only desire is to avert the will of the people.
And also concentrate the minds of the EU negotiators on meaningful discussions.

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Replies: 340
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 11:11
yeah, lets keep our tariffs at zero for them whilst they raise theirs for us

that will concentrate their minds
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 11:17
Should the EU raise tariffs we can do likewise
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 11:20
they already have tariffs, we will be subject to them under no deal


article 24 is shirley the framework for mays deal anyway, bar the timelimit, and backstop
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 11:22
no , tariffs do not have to change under no deal
They can stay the same until new trade arrangements are in place

It’s up to the EU and Britain
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 11:23
if they stay the same then we have a deal

so it cant be no deal
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 11:24
That’s fine , there is no such thing as a no deal
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 24 Jan 19 11:28
It's pretty clear that the cliff edge image promoted by the remain desperadoes, of a no deal exit from the EU is fiction to say the least.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Jan 19 11:45
nothing is clear, far from it.
By:
1st time poster
When: 24 Jan 19 12:16
no disrespect but basically you,ve no idea none of us have your holding your finger in the air and whistling in the wind
lets hope farmers,workers at airbus,sony,panosonic etc,etc share your enthusiasm
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 12:33
the cliff edge is not fiction, but will obviously be mitigated by both sides already
agreeing stuff like flights being allowed between uk and eu

and a series of other small agreements will allow a total shutdown to be avoided.

not all eu companies will up sticks, but some will, and our government show no
signs of any idea to replace these losses bar a race to replicate low tax for their
mates, ...but even then mr dyson has decided he is better off in singapore,
that doesnt look a panacea
By:
1st time poster
When: 24 Jan 19 12:38
stella creasy just nailed it for me on daily politics ,the future agreement means completely different things depending on whether for example its been acted upon by say for example phillip Hammond or boris johson,  th same agreement could mean us tied very close to the EU or Singapore on thames
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 24 Jan 19 14:38
Leave on the 29 March, but carry on trading on the same terms as we do now, while we work out a trade agreement with the EU which is beneficial to both sides.

That is perfectly feasible.
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 14:40
i wonder why may hasnt thought of it ?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 24 Jan 19 14:46
Wasn't she in Parliament when it was discussed?

What makes you think she didn't already know?
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 14:52
its basis of her leaving framework, is it not?
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 14:54
the outcome for some  important things may alter of course,

but its not that far away
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 15:00
remove backstop and theres not much left to argue over


except of course the actual negotiations of the free trade deal, which
is where i expect the real fun to start.

two years is wildly optimistic, imo,...maybe 5 ??
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 24 Jan 19 15:10
Leave the EU on the 29 March without a deal and fall back on Article 24. Then negotiate a trade deal from that position.

Remember that Theresa May is a remainer along with Philip Hammond, which could explain a lot and answer a good many other questions about why this Brexit was steered into such a mess.
By:
moisok
When: 24 Jan 19 15:45
It is funny how various eu (no movement on this) representatives are changing their minds.
How leaders are making different noises now.
Cracks showing.
German manufacturers getting very twitchy  ho ho ho

the french cheese and wine makers are reaching for their yellow jackets.

imagine french ports refusing them access etc!!!??? ho ho

at least we won't have anymore french markets here!!!  BUT WHERE WILL I GET THAT DELICIOUS HUGE FRENCH GARLIC FROM??Sad

I can get my runner beans and peas  from kenya and courgettes from nigeria though. These may have to come by dc3 under the radar as part of the 'Berlin' type Britain airlift
By:
1st time poster
When: 24 Jan 19 15:46
THATS WHAT the backstops for, in case theres no trade deal boris is made tory leader and decides sending chimney sweeps un chimmneys and lowering corporation tax to 10%, abolishing workers rights and absolving employers of health and safety regimes,red tape etc are good idea,s,
the same reason your average labour mp,s wont trust who,s ever leading the tories during trade talks
By:
moisok
When: 24 Jan 19 15:48
we have solved the bolly disaster with rubber boats so that's ok
By:
moisok
When: 24 Jan 19 15:49
as they push the lemmings to the edge of the cliffs of dover will they get a soft landing with all these rubber boats hauled up on the shore??
By:
1st time poster
When: 24 Jan 19 15:51
itsc why mrsmay,s talks are pointless ,worthless she wont be in charge in 2years time
By:
jollyswagman
When: 24 Jan 19 19:42
donny it isnt a series of mini deals, it is actually the eu making unilateral decisions and saying take it or leave it with no negotiation (as they did in december).


crippen, article xxiv of the gatt can only be invoked by parties that are in the process of making a deal, if they have a framework for an agreement and if both parties agree. you need to have an interim agreement and a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union / free trade area within a reasonable length of time. other countries have some powers to intrude if they dont like the schedule/plan. we will be leaving without a deal so it is irrelevant. this is just another trope from the erg lunatics, it has been knocked down by the eu's deputy chief negotiator, former negotiators, current negotiators, trade lawyers, law professionals and our own pm.


''In the event of No Deal, there is a strong case to maintain preferential tariff and quota rates at zero between the UK and the EU for a limited period – thought to be around two years.'' - that would involve breaking wto most favoured nation rules (article i of the gatt) and would make us a pariah and see us at the wto courts for sure.
By:
donny osmond
When: 24 Jan 19 20:38
yes jolly

i was referring to what is already done if we have a no deal, along with
what has been mooted, that will avoid a shutdown
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:39
no , it would be the EU who is breaking WTO rules as well as Britain , that’s if it is breaking wto rules at all

In any event either it is possible for Britain and the EU to have a free trade deal or it isn’t
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:45
It’s like this , in the event if no deal nothing changes , the same trading arrangements ie free trade will be in place between the EU and Britain until they change
Trade between the EU and other countries will not change
And trade between Britain and other countries will not change

Until new trading arrangements are agreed

Other countries will do nothing
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:46
If the EU wish to unilaterally enforce tariffs that’s ok , so does Britain
By:
jollyswagman
When: 24 Jan 19 20:46
are those real facts lfc or are they not strictly true in the sense of being untrue but are nonetheless true? Grin

lfc have you offered your services to her majesty's government? i really think you should. anything's possible, i read it somewhere.
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:49
jollyswagman I can assure you that no other country in the world will worry , why ?
Because under no deal nothing changes

It stays exactly the same , until new trade deals are agreed
By:
moisok
When: 24 Jan 19 20:49
I see they may have to start printing euros - not looking good with the nice kind european family

They also appear to be falling out with one another.

I wonder what the german taxpayer is thinking about this.

If they don't get our yearly contribution I think there may be even more cracks.

Germany economy creaking a tad I hear.

Don't think that is good news for the UK  as we still have financial committments to the rest of europe.

They could still pull us down with them.
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:53
Now if Britain theorectically is breaking wto rules then so is the EU
Of course
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:55
So as I say, either it is possible for the EU andBritain to do a free trade deal or it isn’t
Which is it ?
By:
lfc1971
When: 24 Jan 19 20:56
I don’t mind either way.  ,I’m against free trade
By:
Fatslogger
When: 24 Jan 19 22:31
Five posts of knight’s move thinking in a row. It’s like the musings of a third rate post pranks all philosopher on a subject he vaguely heard about but has no knowledge of. I did really like “under no deal nothing will change” though.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 24 Jan 19 22:32
Post prandial, not post pranks all, damn it. Bloody autocorrect.
By:
moisok
When: 24 Jan 19 22:41
you lot just don't want us to leave - mouthpieces of the brussels mafia 

it's all going wrong

the cracks are showing

germany panicking

got to print more euros too as that is going to sh!T

tax payers in herr merkel's country are grumbling

ho ho ho

they are fighting amongst themselvess   - welcome to the family haooaoaoaao
By:
Fatslogger
When: 24 Jan 19 23:00
You keep parroting all the arguments as to why a deal with the EU would be the easiest deal ever, moi. No doubt you’ve believed them all along and are convinced that the the EU is just above to cave in, despite it not having remotely done so at any point up until now.
By:
akabula
When: 24 Jan 19 23:28
FS the EU and the UK are in exactly the same position.
Whatever happens in respect of a No Deal impacts on us all.
Yet you seem to see this as a disaster for the UK but not the EU. Why?
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