Pinza

Going to stick with Kholaan today Linga 3.00
It's drifted like a barge from 5/1 to 10/1
That makes it a decent e/w bet at the price.

It's 2yo run indictated a trend to follow.
The 3yo run was all at sea when running freely and jockey struggling to hold it. As a result it was in last place turning into straight and jockey was quite easy on it (imo) but ran on well enough to finish 4th.

Stewards held an enquiry and Jockey said there wasn't much left in locker so he didn't ride it hard. Said it would probably be better dropping down a furlong on a straight track!

Runs again over 7f today but back at Lingfield, where it ran well enough as 2yo - but came on inside (the place not to be according to race reviewer).

DOUBLE TOP runners today
Apache Rising *
Mazovian
Rakticate *
Standpoint
Hurricane Spirit *
The ones to consider backing are marked *
I tend to ignore odds on runners though as it's not worth the effort profitwise.


RESULTS;
Stoute won the race with Theodore Gericault 6/4f

I had a little input on a forum thread on this race

Pinza • April 3, 2013 10:23 AM BST
I've looked at a few in this race
STOUTE lacks LB (long break) wins APRIL at Linga in Mdn Stakes
HORSE    POS    S.P
Flag Lieutentant    5    1.63
Velvet valley    6    3.50
Cabal            2    1.63
Commend            2    4.50

BOTTI hasn't got a good FTO strike rate in AW mdn stks at LINGA
Vettorenjoy (GB)    WON
Infortual    3
Eastern Amour    10
Raving Monsun    8
Golden Share    5

Kholaan - price drifting like a barge

A maiden at the lowest grade and the likes of Stoute never used to race many at this level - but had a couple of wins last year
Pistol    2
Diamond Dame    WON
Strident Force    3
Maria's Choice    WON
Revered Citizen    2

(data relates to 3yo's only)

My final decision on race was to back both Kohlaan and Arctic Admirable and lay off at low prices. The latter proved alright for Arctic Admirable (2nd beaten neck) but not for Kohlaan (4th).
Feel sure that Kohlaan will win a race but need to watch replay on this race this morning.

Double Top never ceases to surprise me. When downloading declarations around 7pm yesterday more runners appeared as qualifiers.
Yesterdays results
Apache Rising    WON    0.25
Mazovian    NR    NA
Rakticate    3    0.57
Standpoint    0   
Hurricane Spirit2    0.73
Copperwood    3    3.50
Khudoua            2    0.50
Actonetaketwo    3    5.50

Nothing to shoutabout with 3 odds on runners beaten

I'm never keen on Bank Holiday racing so apart from one lay bet yesterday (Justineo)- I input trainer stats on a prominent tipsters selections on main forum.I was really looking for stats that would support the tips.
Most of the stats available (couple of trainers I don't follow) provided a Zero in the criteria (I try to avoid backing horses with any zero criteria).

Today a system "Banker Bet" is indicated with Roger Varians NAALATT 3.20 Southwell.
From the criteria I use there have been eleven winners from fifteen runners. That's 70% success rate (26 point profit).

There are downsides though.
The stable 3yo runners that won a Southwell maiden and then follow up with a hcp win are rare and, upto now, no Jaris/Varian horse has repeated the Southwell maiden win with a hcp win at same track.

Three of the four losers were in April month (5 wins from 8)

Also the odd figure years, like 2013, have produced only 50% win ratio compared to 88% in even figure years.


The upside is that fillies have won five of the six races, and the loser (Khe Sanh) was deemed unlucky. That was the only loser from four AW races.

DOUBLE TOP update
Hedy    NR        30/03/2013
Micks Yer Man    WON    0.67    30/03/2013
White Coppice    4    8.00    30/03/2013
Activate    2    2.00    30/03/2013
Move In Time    WON    2.25    30/03/2013
Nanton    0        31/03/2013
Hayley    0        31/03/2013
Wicked Wilma    0        31/03/2013
Courageous    0        01/04/2013
Justineo    2    1.75    01/04/2013
Luggers Hall    2    1.38    01/04/2013
Gabrial The Master    WON    8.00    01/04/2013
Transfer    3    25.00    01/04/2013

TODAYS
Irish Dream            02/04/2013
Mediterranean Dream            02/04/2013


UPDATE
Naalatt 2nd 2/1fav
A disappointing run considering it made all on last run here.
Will not be following it.

Double top runners both unplaced

Too busy clearing snow and preparing for flat lately.
When one has to sort out 137 excel "notes" into easy reference order it becomes quite a task - and that's just for ONE trainer.
Sorted into Track order, Race Type, Area, Flat/AW, Months and Grades.
I still ponder how to work out an easy reference to such data from 50 or so trainers.

Yesterdays racing was more of a tester rather than finding winners.
I wasn't prepared to lay them all but indications proved correct for Gladys Girl, Space Ship, Star Lahib,Cai Shen, Moortahan, Greeleys Love & Carry On Sydney (always risky when two in same race, especially when first and second favourite).

By my data (not every runner but all winners) Hannon never had a runner at Musselburgh and rarely has a runner in 3yo Hcp in Scotland, whilst Mark Johnston often runs three or four in class 2 3yo hcp in Scotland all his 5 past winners had a similarity which wasn't present in yesterdays race. 

Todays racing at Musselburgh-
Richard Fahey doesn't get many 3yo maiden winners over 7f and all his 5 winners since 2002 came July and later months so I would be against Brookes Bounty 3.20pm.

Todays "Criteria" with past results for 7f maiden(3yo's)
POSITION PRICE
2    0.91
4    0.62
8    1.50
3    1.75
2    1.25
2    2.75

His runner Mica Mika 3.50 appears to have a decent win chance.
An Excel comment made a year or two ago says
C Open Hcp
single fig SP (6-12)
5yo best (4-5)

Today the updated version reads 6-13 (just 5yo's) but take away the 9/1 shots and it's 6-8.
He has occasionally won with the second string though so beware of Cosmic Sun

The problem is that neither is currently in single figure S.P.but Mica Mika could well shorten from current 10/1 price. Also whilst trainer has had winners in Scotland the current score for Mussellburgh qualifiers is 0-4 - small bet only.


The Double Top update is below with todays and Mondays qualifiers.
(I don't like any of todays three).
They have been doing pretty well but around a level stake profit/loss on all 23 selections since last update.   


Annunciation    Won    6.00
Admirable Duque    Won    1.50
Edwyn Ralph    won    1.50
Docofthebay    2    7.00
Noverre To Go    won    0.67
Beat Route    won    4.00
Daniel Thomas    2    2.25
GabrialThe Duke    won    0.67
Lesley's Choice    6    6.00
Sian Gwalia    3    2.75
Lexington Bay    won    2.75
You Da One    Won    0.05
One Dark Night    4    100.00
Right Stuff    4    2.00
Tight Knit    3    3.50
Outback Lover    Won    2.50
Haywain            3    0.80
Alhaarth Beauty    2    2.25
La Sylphe    Won    1.38
Hedy            NR   
Micks Yer Man    Won    0.67
White Coppice    4    8.00
Activate    2    2.00
Move In Time    Won    2.25
Nanton       
Hayley       
Wicked Wilma       
Courageous       
Justineo       
Luggers Hall       
Gabrial The Master       
Transfer       
Irish Dream       

DT Today
Gabriel The Duke
Albahan
Spring Tonic
Storm
Flying Tempo
Black Dave


RESULTS:
Gabriel The Duke2    1.63
Albahan     4    2.25
Spring Tonic    2    0.57
Storm       WON    0.18
Flying Tempo    WON    1.50
Black Dave    6    14.00

Just the one DT today
8.15 Flashlight


I'm with Kohlaan 5.45 today
I've been studying the stable stats since January and trying to sort out best for flat season.
Stable has done very well with 3yo maiden races (colt/gelding) over 7f.
Whichever way I looked at this today it came out as the winner and certainly better than Hornboy.
(That probably means the result will be the otherway around)

Update
Withdrawals have had an effect on prices.
Kohlaan was 2/1 now around 6/4

RESULT;
Endorsing 1st 14/1 Hornboy 2nd 11/8f Drift Of Silence 3rd 16/1
Kohlaan was unruly going into stalls (went in first).
When race began dropped in rear from wide draw but was pulling and giving jockey problems. In straight came with run from 2f out but not pushed harshly to finish 4th.
It probably needed an educational run but was disappointing.

DT Update
Mount Abora    2    3.00
Hamoody     WON    0.29

Todays
Excellent Puck       
Stand Guard       
Miako        
Unlimited       

Quiet day yesterday but could have fancied Mount Abora for a place but not to win.

I was already aware of todays DT's and was really interested in Excellent Puck.
I took the 2.8 last night after seeing forecast price of 5/4
It's gone as low as 1.91 and currently 2.4, so plenty of trading opportunities.

Double Top winners in maiden stakes are rarely above 7/4.
That leaves little room for error when seeking an overall profit on selections.
Excellent Pluck has the form to win and drops back slightly today but has a running style that should suit Southwell track.
March has proved the best month for maiden winners for Jamie Osborne.
The concern today is 5 days since last run - not normally a trait for this trainer - however was also entered up in a slightly better looking race this week.
The one that has been backed against it is Winter Music.
Looking At Andrew Baldings record in maiden at Southwell reveals two wins (2003-4), both 4yo's with placed form, but who never won again.

Miako was well supported when winning, and attempts to follow up CD win here 19 days ago. Has a chance and would at least expect it to go close.


RESULTS
Excellent Puck    2
Stand Guard    WON
Miako     3
Unlimited    0
Follow The Flag    0

Not a good day for DT's with just 1 winner at 2/11f
Excellent Puck found one to good (AGAIN) but ran well enough to trade as low as 1.06
I got out at 1.12 to make a profit on race.
Interesting to listen to Rob Havlin on winner (Burgoyne) say it's all over the place and wore blinkers FTO and hood today but shouldn't need either eventually. Also said that Hughie Morrisons gallops are heavy therefore this one was well suited to get through the sand at Southwell.

Seeing Farraaj in the early entries for the race made this my probable bet if it was going to run.
Looking at Kremlin stable data I'm not so sure. The only pattern colt/gelding winner previous to Farraaj on AW was Laaheb and that never won at same level again on AW.
Faraaj won as 3yo in Listed company (at Lingfield) - but would be the first male horse going back to 1994 to repeat an AW win in similar grade. It's the sort of stat that may fall eventually but still a risk.

Past race trends indicate that you need a horse that won in it's previous two races, but since Hatton won in 2008 I've extended this to three runs - and that took in Premio Loco last year.

You used to be able to rely on a good run in February Trial race but Junoob let that down badly last year and four of the last 5 winners of "Derby" were having first run of year.

Hannon seems in good form but Cai Shan doesn't appear to have the form to win this. His winner in 2009 (Scintillo) had always raced in Pattern company after it's maiden win.

Most previous winners had attained a listed win prior to "Derby" - apart from Sergeant York (33/1 2001).

Premio Loco looks the one to test Farraaj as age does not seemed to have stopped it's ability. Won this on first outing last year and landed it's fifth Group 2 race late August. The prize money for Derby (56K) matches the amount won in it's Group 2 wins.
Had previously finished 2nd (nose) to Scintillo and this is it's third "Derby" run and only it's 4th run over this distance.
It's AW runs form read 0111125411

For an outsider the "Robin Hoods" look the part.
Robin Hoods Bay is an improver with two class 2 wins this year.
It's the other one - Robin Hood that interests me more. Philip Mitchell coming out of retirement, since leaving the game in 2008 now trains this ex Irish Group race runner. Mitchell won the "Derby" in 1998 with Running Stag when the race was B conditions race.

Double Top runners Saturday
Teophilip
Spring Tonic
Restless Bay
La Sylphe
Ishetoo
Two No Bids

RESULTS;
Faraaj won 6/4f Robin Hoods Bay 2nd 12/1 Cai Shen 3rd 9/2
Should have stuck with fav but system data and trainer data said "No"
It's often a difficult balancing act between own opinion, race stats, trainer data and system data. They rarely all tally, and when they do it's a banker.

Double Top Results

Teophilip    WON    10.00
Spring Tonic    2    1.75
Restless Bay    4    14.00
La Sylphe    4    12.00
Ishetoo     0    11.00
Two No Bids    WON    7.50

These are starting to come good lately and March profit, so far, is 20 points.

Missed out Needwood Park on Friday night 2nd 15/2.

Todays Double Top runners
2.30 Gods Gift
3.45 Club House

As mentioned previously Lingfield is only AW track for DT wins in 3yo Mdns. If your Religious or fancy God's Gift then its worth backing.
I'm not so certain though. Mark Johnston has won three runnings of the previous four races according to Race Stats - and he has two in race today.

The 3yo hcps at Linga doesn't have a good enough DT win strike rate for me today - but my views haven't stopped Double Tops winning lately.

Update.
M.J. has done very well with 3yo's on this day over last 4 years
Rupestrian    1    2.75
Capponi (IRE)    1    4.50
Duellist (GB)    2    10.00
Distinguish    0    18.00
Old English    1    6.50
Bestwecan    1    0.67
Lionrock    1    2.50
Danube River    5    14.00
Hikma    4    1.38
Bordoni    1    0.73
Moataz    1    2.25

Take away the double figure priced runners and 7 out of 8 won
He has just gone down with his two runners in 2.30 but what's the liklehood of him landing a winner or two with the remaining four runners?
3.45 Sennockian Star
4.25 Limit Up
5.40 Nellie Bly
5.55 Birdy Boy
(7.00 he runs 5yo Tartan Jura)

The races M.J has previously won involve Limit Up, Nellie Bly and Birdy Boy

RESULTS
Both Double Tops finished 3rd but small fields meant no pay out for places.

All M.J' runners were beaten today.

Normally I would get excited over Cheltenham and especially the Bumper - but this year couldn't be bothered studying the stats.
Wasn't surprised to see Willie Mullins take the Bumper but - 25/1 and with Ruby aboard???

DTops all successful yesterday but only backed my nap Upavon.

Todays Double Top runners
5.45 Riskit For a Biskit  (odds on doesn't inspire me to back it)
6.15 Daniel Thomas (There is not many Selling Hcp races that produce a Double Top and none of the three, so far, won.)

RESULTS;
Riskit For a Biskit    2    0.50
Daniel Thomas    WON    4.50

Daniel Thomas has been brilliant - for an old horse.(11yo)
Mrs Burke has overturned last two of Michael Bells Double Tops!
I know she is well in with Tom Dascombe but not aware if she is friendly with Bell?

Yesterdays DT winners and losers were mostly in line with expectations.
Star Of Rohm was my only bet (Lay) though.
The selling races data came out well for Alpha Turi and Honey Of A Kitten.
Aubretia was other winner but Hcp races have a poor strike rate (10%) generally.
That win brings AW class 4 win rate up tp 20%.

Todays Double Top
Misleading Promise (no 3yo seller winners in D/d yet, also 5 yrs race stats indicate no win in last 4 runs)
Masterful Act (poor win ratio in Hcps)
Milly's Gift (poor win rate filly v colt/gelds)
Upavon (fair win rate in this grade & 7lb claimers showing up well lately. This could be Robert Tarts hat-trick in Double Top rides)

Upavon comes out best today AND Elsworth is a "purple" trainer in DT's.

RESULTS
Misleading Promise    WON    1.25
Masterful Act    WON    0.67
Milly's Gift    WON    2.75
Upavon    WON    1.25

That's a first with all four winning on same day.
Previous best was 4-6 on 5th October but there have been two trebles on same day Dec 21st & Jan 12th