Pinza

Seeing Farraaj in the early entries for the race made this my probable bet if it was going to run.
Looking at Kremlin stable data I'm not so sure. The only pattern colt/gelding winner previous to Farraaj on AW was Laaheb and that never won at same level again on AW.
Faraaj won as 3yo in Listed company (at Lingfield) - but would be the first male horse going back to 1994 to repeat an AW win in similar grade. It's the sort of stat that may fall eventually but still a risk.

Past race trends indicate that you need a horse that won in it's previous two races, but since Hatton won in 2008 I've extended this to three runs - and that took in Premio Loco last year.

You used to be able to rely on a good run in February Trial race but Junoob let that down badly last year and four of the last 5 winners of "Derby" were having first run of year.

Hannon seems in good form but Cai Shan doesn't appear to have the form to win this. His winner in 2009 (Scintillo) had always raced in Pattern company after it's maiden win.

Most previous winners had attained a listed win prior to "Derby" - apart from Sergeant York (33/1 2001).

Premio Loco looks the one to test Farraaj as age does not seemed to have stopped it's ability. Won this on first outing last year and landed it's fifth Group 2 race late August. The prize money for Derby (56K) matches the amount won in it's Group 2 wins.
Had previously finished 2nd (nose) to Scintillo and this is it's third "Derby" run and only it's 4th run over this distance.
It's AW runs form read 0111125411

For an outsider the "Robin Hoods" look the part.
Robin Hoods Bay is an improver with two class 2 wins this year.
It's the other one - Robin Hood that interests me more. Philip Mitchell coming out of retirement, since leaving the game in 2008 now trains this ex Irish Group race runner. Mitchell won the "Derby" in 1998 with Running Stag when the race was B conditions race.

Double Top runners Saturday
Teophilip
Spring Tonic
Restless Bay
La Sylphe
Ishetoo
Two No Bids

RESULTS;
Faraaj won 6/4f Robin Hoods Bay 2nd 12/1 Cai Shen 3rd 9/2
Should have stuck with fav but system data and trainer data said "No"
It's often a difficult balancing act between own opinion, race stats, trainer data and system data. They rarely all tally, and when they do it's a banker.

Double Top Results

Teophilip    WON    10.00
Spring Tonic    2    1.75
Restless Bay    4    14.00
La Sylphe    4    12.00
Ishetoo     0    11.00
Two No Bids    WON    7.50

These are starting to come good lately and March profit, so far, is 20 points.

Missed out Needwood Park on Friday night 2nd 15/2.