orioles

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

The Yankees have clinched a post-season berth by winning the first game of today's double-header and now they'll be keen to wrap up the AL East, so they're not going to come off the gas, but I hope it won't be tonight, because I like the Rays to take this one.

CC has scuffled a bit lately and has put in some hard yards down the stretch - he has pitched the 4th highest number of innings in the AL. His fastball has been getting some hammer as he has struggled with his location; his heater has been hit to a .408 batting average by opponents over his last nine starts.

This Tampa lineup is hitting .266/.338/.494 against him and Tampa know they have to snap this 2 game losing streak to head off the challenge of the Red Sox and make the post-season themselves.

Since the All Star Break, Hellickson has been strong (1.13/2.49 WHIP/ERA) and I can't resist the price.

Pick: Rays @ 2.70

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

100-98 (+5.67pts)

St Louis Rams @ New York Giants

The night of the living dead.

A really tough game to call; both teams are ravaged by injury and like an episode of Stingray ... anything can happen!

Steve Spagnuolo is probably the Rams' ace in the hole, having coached the Giants.

Bradford is banged up and struggled mightily last week. The Giants pass rush is more or less holding up, and Tuck may return, which is bad news for Bradford, who looked like a rabbit in the headlights against the Eagles, who sacked him five times. That said, the Giants' secondary was a terrible shambles last week and Rex Grossman took them for 305yds.

Manning couldn't hit a bull's arse with a banjo, his OL is ropey, and he may be missing his #1 wideout, so I suspect New York will begin by pounding the ball against a Rams run D that had problems with LeSean McCoy. I expect Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to carry the ball (and the Giants' offense) most of the night and it's their matchup on Spagnuolo's schemes that may decide this one.

However, the Rams' corners are another area where injuries have hit them hard (they lost further personnel in week 1) and Manning should be able to pick on them, if he has time to get the ball out. Hakeem Nicks' status in this respect is vital, and Manningham may offer a little value in the TD market.

New York to cover, just.

Pick: Giants -7 @ 1.96 (Sky)
Pick: Anytime TD Mario Manningham @ 2.1

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

The Twins are on an 8 game skid, and are 4-22 since Aug 21. They're also swinging wet lettuce at the plate, which is a shame because although Burnett had a decent outing last time up, his numbers aren't good; he had a 4.83 ERA in July, an 11.91 ERA in August and a 4.76 ERA in September before fanning 11 and allowing 2 runs in 6 innings of work against Seattle 5 days ago.

Scott Diamond has only given up more than 3 runs once in his 5 starts (although his WHIP is a little too far north) and he deserves better than a 1-4 record.

This is a difficult call, but neither team is hitting well, and the traditionally high line in New York may be a little too high; in truth though, this game isn't a great betting proposition.

Pick: Under 10 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

100-98 (+5.67pts)

St Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

These are two strong pitchers who have solid lines against the two lineups they face tonight; Carpenter .202/.220/.298 (AVG/OBP/SLG) and Hamels (.290/.257/.352).

St Louis are hitting just .218 vs lefties L10 and with Holliday out, that fearsome threesome is a little lighter. Philly are hitting .212 vs righties L10.

I'll go Under.

Pick: Under 7 @ 2.00

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

99-98 (+4.67pts)

Some thoughts ...

The received wisdom is that you don’t bet on the first two weeks of the season, and after last week’s results, the usual panic and over-hyped cobblers is being talked. It would be interesting to see how you’d fare if you took the points on offer on every game, because some lines look badly out of whack.

Now THAT'S an acca!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

An awkward game, and not one I would normally get involved in.

Neither of these teams looks comfortable moving the ball, making the outcome difficult to gauge.  For Tampa Bay, LeGarrette Blount misfired last week and Freeman looks short of confidence going vertical, preferring short, quick passes. For Minnesota, well, it’s AP versus the Bucs.

McNabb is horrible and the OL creaks badly (Tampa’s improving pass rush isn’t going to make things any easier) but Peterson is the most talented running back in the game and he gives the Vikings a chance whenever he suits up. He’ll need to have a big game here, because Percy Harvin is more or less it downfield and even then you’re asking McNabb to get him the ball against a couple of talented young corners.

The Bucs’ running game will profit from the continued absence of Kevin Williams, but I can’t see them tearing it up on the ground.

Pick: Tampa Bay @ 2.2
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5.00

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots

Brady. Yikes.

Even behind a ropey OL, tonsorially terrific Tom is money, and the Chargers, making the famous time zone hop to take on the Pats in Foxboro, will have a tough time keeping Brady quiet. He struggled against them last year, but that may be hoping against hope, because in truth he should make hay again tonight against safeties who will struggle to contain his new best friends, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Throw in the Welker wildcard, and the Chargers’ D will have a long day.

Not that the New England defense is in for an armchair ride; Rivers is a terrific QB with a multitude of weapons at his disposal  and the Pats’ D struggled to  contain the Fins deep last week, so they’ve got their work cut out with Jackson, Floyd and Gates.

Antonio Gates will get the looks in the redzone, even close in, as Haynesworth and Wilfork are big units to get past on the ground, making Mathews and Tolbert poor value in the TD market .

The New England run game may have more joy, and ‘the law firm’, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, should get a chance on the goal line.

I like New England to cover.

Pick: Patriots -6.5 @ 1.91 (PP)
Pick: 1st TD BJGE @ 8.00

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

Vick to Atlanta. Woof.

2006 seems a long time ago and doubtless the charmer will be keen to show the Georgia Dome that he’s turned it around in the city of brotherly love.

However, this may be one of those games where there’s been an overreaction to Week 1; the Eagles (particularly the OL) gelled better than most people thought they would and the Falcons were flat out horrible.

I’m still not buying the Eagles’ OL and as I mentioned in my season preview, I always feel like Vick is one scramble and big hit away from disaster. This is an offense that ticks with big plays  and if John Abraham and Ray Edwards can get rolling, Vick may struggle – the Rams put pressure on him last week and the Falcons will have worked hard on getting to the QB. If they don’t though – watch out! Incidentally, Mike always likes a big room, so he’s worth a small interest to score first.

Ryan will sling it about as usual, but it would be nice to see Turner get the rock more in this one; he can put up some nice numbers against a less than stellar run D that Steven Jackson looked like shredding before he got injured. If Atlanta establishes the run, Ryan can look for some very talented receivers downfield. There’ll be heavy coverage for Roddy White and Julio Jones, and I have a sneaking suspicion Tony Gonzalez might turn back the clock as Ryan uses him underneath, matched up on a poor Eagles’ LB unit.

Pick: Falcons +3 @ 1.95 (Lad)
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 3.00

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

This is beginning to get very serious indeed for the Red Sox, and a crisis may become a tragedy if they don't start winning as the Rays get closer and closer in the wildcard race.

They should be in luck tonight, because Brandon Morrow stinks, but in truth, Wakefield hardly inspires, although he has had to endure a bullpen seemingly bent on denying him 200. He's too short at 1.71 though.

Even with the line so high, I'll take it on with these two pitching.

Pick: Over 10.5 @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

98-98 (+3.72pts)

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

One of these QBs threw 36 TDs and 4 interceptions: the other threw 15 and 18.

One has the uncanny ability to target weaknesses in a defense, even as they develop off the line and find his targets unerringly. 

The other is Chad Henne.

Now, I’m not one for hanging Chads in Florida (that is GENIUS) but Henne could find himself tested tonight. I anticipate that Sparano will be as good as his word and that the Dolphins will use multiple wide receiver sets, now that they haven’t the direct punch of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to change it up.

The arrival of Reggie Bush is interesting; I confess I’ve never been much of a fan, and I don’t believe for an instant he’ll actually be a feature back in the normal sense of the word, but he can be effective catching out of the backfield. The fact that Larry Johnson has been signed after Daniel Thomas went down is a sign that the running game is in poor shape in Miami.

This means Henne will try to go toe to toe in the passing game. The Miami line is weak at RT and has holes elsewhere. The Pats have an efficient pass rush that will come after Henne and beyond that there is a solid, if unspectacular secondary. Keep an eye out for Devin McCourty who will likely line up on the Fins’ most potent deep weapon, Brandon Marshall. Henne put up decent numbers against the Pats last year, but he threw four picks too.

On the other side, Brady didn’t exactly torch Miami last year, and the Dolphins have a strong defense. Their pass rush with Wake and Jason Taylor will test the New England O line and the Miami secondary boasts some exciting young talent.  This will mean that Brady will frequently have to check down to second and even third targets, so expect Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowski and Hernandez to get looks.

When they get down in the redzone, look for BenJarvus Green-Ellis close in.

If Miami can put up some points, this could be closer than people think, but I’m not sure Henne can overcome a defense that will demand he thinks quickly and delivers accurately – not his strong suits, particularly with a run game that looks thin.

I’ll take New England to cover.

Pick: Patriots -7 @ 1.95 (Lad)
Pick: 1st TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 7.00
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 2.25
Pick: New England Sacks Buy @ 2.6 (0.25/tick)


Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

The Raiders put it to the Broncos last season, but I don’t anticipate the same happening tonight in Denver, where evidently spirits are a mile high (sorry).

The arrival of John Fox and his brand of no nonsense football has buoyed up the Broncos’ players and it’s a clear, if unsurprising statement of intent, that they’ve gone out and signed Willis McGahee to carry the load. John Fox likes to run. McGahee should have some joy on the ground against a Raiders’ D that is generous up front.

Oakland are also forgiving through the air and now that Asomugha has gone as well, it’s even poorer downfield. Although the Broncos will try to establish the run first, Orton (who has quite properly seen off other challengers to QB) should be able to make some throws deep, most notably to Brandon Lloyd who may break off a couple of big plays.

The Denver defense are a different group this year; Elvis Dumervil is back and they’ve drafted Von Miller of whom great things are expected. Add in Brodrick Bunkley and Ty Warren and it’s a much more formidable threat. The Raiders’ O line is a little too porous for Campbell’s game; he has the arm (and possibly even the receivers) but he hasn’t got the quick release that he may need tonight as a revitalised pass rush bears down on him.

That leaves the run: Darren McFadden is a beast and although he hasn’t had much of a pre-season due to injury, he had big games against Denver last year and is a threat tonight and he’ll see the ball a lot.

On balance, the upbeat tone of the Broncos and their improvements on the defensive side of the ball suggest they should be good enough to get past tonight’s opponents.

Pick: Denver -3 @ 1.83 (WH)
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 1.91

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees have a nasty losing streak going and the Angels have an ‘eye of the tiger’ thing going on. They’re now only one and a half games out of first place in the AL West and have successfully aimed their strongest pitchers at the Yanks to get it done in this series.

Santana (1.23/3.20 WHIP/ERA L3) has a less than stellar record against the pinstripes, but has been very strong since the All Star break.

Garcia (1.46/5.93) although he has a good record against the Angels, faces a lineup that is hitting .356 against him, with a .407 OBP.  Santana’s equivalent numbers are .273/.358.

The Yankees are pretty banged up.

I’ll ride the streaks.

Pick: Angels @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

98-97 (+4.72pts)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

There’s a rebuild on offense for the Ravens, both downfield and on the line – and it doesn’t inspire.

Flacco has lost two of his favourite targets and although the Ravens have gone out and got proven talent in Evans, I can't see him solving the problem straight away.

The offensive line is messy. The skittish Flacco is going to have Bryant McKinnie at LT, a player cut by the Vikings after reporting with the body fat %ge of a pork scratching. Anyone creeping up out of Flacco’s eyesight isn’t going to worry too much about a 360lb band aid. Guys like Timmons and Harrison could wreak havoc.

Flacco has talent, but he can react badly to pressure. Without much time, he’s going to struggle because, as no-one runs on Pittsburgh, Flacco’s options will be overwhelmingly through the air.

The Steelers also have issues on the O line (Suggs on the rookie Gilbert could get ugly) but the difference is that Ben Roethlisberger is much more difficult to pin in the pocket, thinks much more clearly under pressure and has deeper, more talented options downfield.

The Ravens aren’t massive pass rushers and have questions in the secondary, and I would expect Mike Wallace to continue to progress. He is worth an interest to score today.

Pick: Steelers @ 2.05
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.0
Pick: Buy Pittsburgh Sacks @ 2.8 - 0.25pt/tick



New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

The Giants are depleted on defense and are fielding new starters elsewhere. They’ve lost key interior linemen and talent downfield. Eli Manning has looked poor in pre-season and while I don’t place too much reliance on that form, he seemed to lack even basic accuracy. The Giants are likely to run the ball a lot to try and keep their defense off the field, so he won't be throwing the ball much anyway, but he looked vulnerable.

The Redskins may not be as bad as last season would suggest. The defense in particular started to make significant progress in the second half of 2010. It will be interesting to see how new boys Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan fit in and if they can get after Manning.

Rex Grossman. There it is. My team is starting Rex Grossman. Ordinarily, that would depress me but Rex has actually looked pretty sharp (the Shanahan magic?). Note that last season, he went 26/44 for 336 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception against the Giants.

Shanahan’s knack of picking guys off the floor, or out of the crowd, and reinventing them, is in play elsewhere too; Hightower should thrive in this zone blocking scheme and with Goff, Austin and Sintim out, if Hightower can carry his good form into this game (and carry the ball without dropping it) he may open up the passing game for Grossman, who could pick on that banged up Giants’ secondary missing Terrell Thomas, Bruce Johnson and Prince Amukamara.

If that does happen, look for Santana Moss in the redzone; he has the talent if Grossman can get him the ball, and he also put up nice numbers against the Giants last year with Rex under centre.

Pick: Redskins +3 @ 1.91 (SJ)
Pick: Anytime TD Santana Moss @ 2.4

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

Neither of these pitchers has been pitching particularly well L3. Slowey has been a little unlucky (and worryingly tweaked a hammy last time) and Penny has been flat out awful.

On offense; Minnesota aren't producing at the plate, Detroit are hitting the ball hard.

However, the anaemic Twins have roughed up Penny this season (0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts) and Slowey has a good W/L record against the Tigers, although at the cost of a soaring ERA.

I'm really tempted by the price for Minnesota here, and if they win I'll kick myself, but with the Tigers scenting the post-season and on a six game tear, I'll limit myself to the Overs.

Pick: Over 9.5 @ 1.91

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

97-97 (+3.81pts)