Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
There’s a rebuild on offense for the Ravens, both downfield and on the line – and it doesn’t inspire.
Flacco has lost two of his favourite targets and although the Ravens have gone out and got proven talent in Evans, I can't see him solving the problem straight away.
The offensive line is messy. The skittish Flacco is going to have Bryant McKinnie at LT, a player cut by the Vikings after reporting with the body fat %ge of a pork scratching. Anyone creeping up out of Flacco’s eyesight isn’t going to worry too much about a 360lb band aid. Guys like Timmons and Harrison could wreak havoc.
Flacco has talent, but he can react badly to pressure. Without much time, he’s going to struggle because, as no-one runs on Pittsburgh, Flacco’s options will be overwhelmingly through the air.
The Steelers also have issues on the O line (Suggs on the rookie Gilbert could get ugly) but the difference is that Ben Roethlisberger is much more difficult to pin in the pocket, thinks much more clearly under pressure and has deeper, more talented options downfield.
The Ravens aren’t massive pass rushers and have questions in the secondary, and I would expect Mike Wallace to continue to progress. He is worth an interest to score today.
Pick: Steelers @ 2.05
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace @ 2.0
Pick: Buy Pittsburgh Sacks @ 2.8 - 0.25pt/tick
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
The Giants are depleted on defense and are fielding new starters elsewhere. They’ve lost key interior linemen and talent downfield. Eli Manning has looked poor in pre-season and while I don’t place too much reliance on that form, he seemed to lack even basic accuracy. The Giants are likely to run the ball a lot to try and keep their defense off the field, so he won't be throwing the ball much anyway, but he looked vulnerable.
The Redskins may not be as bad as last season would suggest. The defense in particular started to make significant progress in the second half of 2010. It will be interesting to see how new boys Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan fit in and if they can get after Manning.
Rex Grossman. There it is. My team is starting Rex Grossman. Ordinarily, that would depress me but Rex has actually looked pretty sharp (the Shanahan magic?). Note that last season, he went 26/44 for 336 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception against the Giants.
Shanahan’s knack of picking guys off the floor, or out of the crowd, and reinventing them, is in play elsewhere too; Hightower should thrive in this zone blocking scheme and with Goff, Austin and Sintim out, if Hightower can carry his good form into this game (and carry the ball without dropping it) he may open up the passing game for Grossman, who could pick on that banged up Giants’ secondary missing Terrell Thomas, Bruce Johnson and Prince Amukamara.
If that does happen, look for Santana Moss in the redzone; he has the talent if Grossman can get him the ball, and he also put up nice numbers against the Giants last year with Rex under centre.
Pick: Redskins +3 @ 1.91 (SJ)
Pick: Anytime TD Santana Moss @ 2.4