New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
One of these QBs threw 36 TDs and 4 interceptions: the other threw 15 and 18.
One has the uncanny ability to target weaknesses in a defense, even as they develop off the line and find his targets unerringly.
The other is Chad Henne.
Now, I’m not one for hanging Chads in Florida (that is GENIUS) but Henne could find himself tested tonight. I anticipate that Sparano will be as good as his word and that the Dolphins will use multiple wide receiver sets, now that they haven’t the direct punch of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to change it up.
The arrival of Reggie Bush is interesting; I confess I’ve never been much of a fan, and I don’t believe for an instant he’ll actually be a feature back in the normal sense of the word, but he can be effective catching out of the backfield. The fact that Larry Johnson has been signed after Daniel Thomas went down is a sign that the running game is in poor shape in Miami.
This means Henne will try to go toe to toe in the passing game. The Miami line is weak at RT and has holes elsewhere. The Pats have an efficient pass rush that will come after Henne and beyond that there is a solid, if unspectacular secondary. Keep an eye out for Devin McCourty who will likely line up on the Fins’ most potent deep weapon, Brandon Marshall. Henne put up decent numbers against the Pats last year, but he threw four picks too.
On the other side, Brady didn’t exactly torch Miami last year, and the Dolphins have a strong defense. Their pass rush with Wake and Jason Taylor will test the New England O line and the Miami secondary boasts some exciting young talent. This will mean that Brady will frequently have to check down to second and even third targets, so expect Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowski and Hernandez to get looks.
When they get down in the redzone, look for BenJarvus Green-Ellis close in.
If Miami can put up some points, this could be closer than people think, but I’m not sure Henne can overcome a defense that will demand he thinks quickly and delivers accurately – not his strong suits, particularly with a run game that looks thin.
I’ll take New England to cover.
Pick: Patriots -7 @ 1.95 (Lad)
Pick: 1st TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 7.00
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 2.25
Pick: New England Sacks Buy @ 2.6 (0.25/tick)
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
The Raiders put it to the Broncos last season, but I don’t anticipate the same happening tonight in Denver, where evidently spirits are a mile high (sorry).
The arrival of John Fox and his brand of no nonsense football has buoyed up the Broncos’ players and it’s a clear, if unsurprising statement of intent, that they’ve gone out and signed Willis McGahee to carry the load. John Fox likes to run. McGahee should have some joy on the ground against a Raiders’ D that is generous up front.
Oakland are also forgiving through the air and now that Asomugha has gone as well, it’s even poorer downfield. Although the Broncos will try to establish the run first, Orton (who has quite properly seen off other challengers to QB) should be able to make some throws deep, most notably to Brandon Lloyd who may break off a couple of big plays.
The Denver defense are a different group this year; Elvis Dumervil is back and they’ve drafted Von Miller of whom great things are expected. Add in Brodrick Bunkley and Ty Warren and it’s a much more formidable threat. The Raiders’ O line is a little too porous for Campbell’s game; he has the arm (and possibly even the receivers) but he hasn’t got the quick release that he may need tonight as a revitalised pass rush bears down on him.
That leaves the run: Darren McFadden is a beast and although he hasn’t had much of a pre-season due to injury, he had big games against Denver last year and is a threat tonight and he’ll see the ball a lot.
On balance, the upbeat tone of the Broncos and their improvements on the defensive side of the ball suggest they should be good enough to get past tonight’s opponents.
Pick: Denver -3 @ 1.83 (WH)
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Marshall @ 1.91