I'm hoping that a horse carrying top weight in a 28 furlong Handicap Chase can give us a successful trade today. The six year old has won two and been placed 3rd and fourth once each from his four Chase runs to date. Last time out Lost Glory was returned to hurdles and won from a similar mark to his chase mark. The fourth placed horse that day has gone on to win to give the form a boost. Lost Glory is a lazy jumper but should be good enough to give us a trade today, normally held up just off the pace. Its always difficult knowing whether to take a price about any of Jonjo's horse but I took 7.2 and 7.4 about this one, looking for a lay off price in running of 4.4 for an all green green to the value of 1.3 points, the more ambitious can look to get out at 3.95 for a 1.7 pts all green screen.
Its Like That in the next at 2.50 is back to a more suitable trip and with his five time winning jockey back on board, taking over from AP non the less and can go well here, backed at 17.5 to lay of at 10.5 to normal stakes for a 1.3 all green screen.
I'll put these up as we go along today and see if we can get one or two decent trades to add to those that have been put on twitter lately. I;ll up date the blog as and when is possible.
In the 5.15 at Aintree,the 8yo gelding Categorical has proved that he can handle the course when finishing 3rd in the John Smiths Handicap Chase in April, he has won three times over the distance and comes here in good heart having finished second on a pipe opener over the flat recently, bearing in mind he has never won a flat race, finishing second really does show his well being. He has been available to trade in all of his last seven races and in all nine of his last nine runs over fences. I took 13/2 this morning about this one or 7.5 leaving me needing an in running lay off price of 4.5 for a 1.3 all green or lay off at 4.9 for a one point all green. To be ambitious and ask for a 1.75 pt profit all green would take a lay off price of 4. Normal stakes, always 2pts win and eithe 3.05, 3.35 or 3.75 pts lay off depending on how heavy an all green you want.
In the 4.55 at Newbury, Golden Delicious is a filly holding her form well, she was very unlucky last time out when short of room at the business end of the race and would have finished much closer but for that. Today she is back amongst her own sex, at this distance or slightly shorter she has ran againast her own sex three times, winning twice and being second once. Richard Hughers is back in the saddle today have won on her in a Grade Two Handicap the only previous time he has been in the saddle. Normally held up so often a better price can be had in running, she traded as high as 20 and 100 in both her winning races to date. Its possible to lay first and back in running but we will stick to our normal path and back at 5/1 at Ladbrokes this morning (still 9/2 in places) leaves me needing a lay off price of 3.95 for a 1pt all green, 3.6 for a 1.3 pt all green or for the ambitious 3.2 for a 1.75 all green, to the stakes as above.
Many thanks for all the kind folk of the Betfair Forum for your generous sponsorship of Kerry in the Great North Run which she duly completed in 2 hours and 11 minutes yesterday raising £920 in the process for the Mental Health Charity MIND. Of that total, some £400 or so was raised from the betfair forum, there may be some idiots on these forums but there are also a lot of genuine and good hearted people. The Write Ups provided 20 selections, of which 15 were successful and 5 were not, producing 9.5 pts profit along the way. Not quite as high a strike rate as normal, but a profit is a profit. Once again many thanks to all the kind folk who provided sponsorship, thank you. Kerry and Jinxy.
Bollin Greta traded down to 2.04 for a 1.3pt trade
Imaginary Diva traded to 4, for a 1.3 pt trade
Ponte Acclaim failed to trade
Colonial traded to 2.0 for a 1.3 all green
Cool Shade traded to 2.2 for a 1.3 all green
Storming Bernard to 1.01 for a 1.3 all green
Take it to the Max, to 1.01 and a 1.3 all green
Inquissitress to 3, for a 1.3 all green
Dunservick, failed to trade
Gems, failed to trade
Imperial Guest, made 1.3 all green
Guru of Gloom, traded to 1.01 for a 1.3 all green
Eaton Forever traded to 1.42 for a 1.3 all green
Army of Stars, failed to trade
Kings Bayonet, failed to trade
Int Debut, traded to 1.01, 1.3 all green
Cpt Dunne to 3.35 for a 1.3 pt all green
Jan Jaddur to 1.8 for a 1.3 all green
traded to 1.01 for a 1.3 all green
Nine Before Ten traded for a 1.3 all green
The 20 races produced 5 that failed to trade, minus 10 points.
15 did traded, plus 19.5 points
For a profit of 9.5 points.
The last day before the Great North Run, once again many thanks to all those that sponsored Kerry for the run on behalf of MIND the Mental Health Charity.
In the 5.35 at Ayr today I think that the consistent Bollin Greta will be able to trade for us. The mare will have no problem with today's conditions with the going and the distance being fine. In her last fourteen races she has been available to trade in twelve of them and has traded to evens or less in eight of her last ten. Back at 11 leaves us needing an in running trade off price of 6.6 for an all green scree to the value of 1.3 pts or lay off at 7.2 for a one point all green.
4/5 for the Write Ups yesterday or 5/5 if you waited and got the best price on the last one(I did say a drift was likely). Predicting the odds 8 hrs in advance is never simple!! Whatever you did though a tidy profit awaited.
4.30 Ayr Ponte Acclaim steps up to Listed Class today and could well be up to at least getting us a trade this afternoon. The filly found 6 furlongs too far on her penultimate start and a return to the minimum distance saw her regain the winning thread in comfortable fashion in a Class 3 race on going similar to today's good/soft. Seven career races to date where she has been available to trade at least to half her BFSP on all seven occasions including when hampered near the start in the Super Sprint. Backed at 3.9 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of 2.34 for a 1.3 all green screen or lay off at 2.56 for a 1 pt all green. Currently 11/4 (3.75) at the bookies so its possible that better than 3.9 may become available.
3.35 Lingfield Imaginary Diva is a mare in cracking form at the moment, winning nicely last time out at Yarmouth, up 6lb for that which takes her to highest mark for two years, in form at that time she was placed and traded from similar marks. She has a good draw, ground is fine and ridden just off the pace should see her there or thereabouts at the furlong marker for her price to drop sufficiently to get us all green. Backed at 7.2 leaves us needing 4.3 lay off for a 1.3 all green or lay off at 4.7 for a 1 pt all green.
5.30 Newbury Colonial won nicely last time out and seems to be coming to hand, he performed well in a strong Group race at Meydan in January so we know he can do it at this level. He has traded to odds on in his last three races and should be good enough to at least put a challenge in today at the business end of the race enabling us to green up. Backed at 3.3 needing to lay off at evens for almost at 1.3 all green or lay off at 2.18 for a 1 pt all green.
5.05 Still deliberating over Mowhawk Ridge at 10.5.
A few each day I think for the last few days leading up to the Great North Run. I almost fancied going through the card at Ayr but common sense prevailed.
2.20 Ayr, Cool in The Shade is in fine form. Since his seasonal début he has ran a further nine times trading to at least half his betfair SP in all nine races, further analysis shows that in three races over the minimum distance he has traded to odds on in each race, to 1.01, 1.37 and 1.16 all in this grade. Up just 2lb for his maiden win, the Midgley stable is in fine form and backed at 11 leaves a lay off in running of either 6.4 for a 1.3 pt all green screen (with a win bonus) or lay off at 7.2 for a 1 pt all green. Pricewise - anything can happen in these big field low grade handicaps.
2.50 Ayr, Storming Bernard has some useful form to his name in the context of this race and if allowed a soft lead then Darryll Holland is just the man to take advantage in this small field Novices Stakes, the step up in trip should suit and the ground is no problem. Pricewise - currently 3.5 at the books so a possible drift on betfair might happen. Backed at 3.55 leaves us needing a lay off price of 2.12 for a 1.3 all green or lay off at 2.34 for a 1 pt all green
3.20 Did think about Swiftly Done in this, still in good form despite being 11lb higher than winning over C&D, 6 and either 3.6 or 3.95
3.50 Take It To The Max, bigger at the bookies than on here at the moment, still available at 7/2 (boyles and SB, was 4/1 for us earlybirds!!))Back to his best distance today and back down in grade which will also suit, available to trade in all of his last nine races, ground is fine, distance is right and Hanagan in the the saddle. Backed at 5 needing an in running lay off at either 3 for 1.3 or 3.3 for a one point all green. Price - he has been pushed out to 7/2 so perhaps may drift a little.
4.20 Hot Rod Mama and Verglas Star, 7.8 and 5.1 but no decision.
4.50 Hayek at around 13 to lay off at either 7.8 or 8.4, just not enough hours in the day to look in depth.
5.20 Distant Waters, if around 6.6 to lay off at 4.9 or 4.4, still drifting, just not sure about the distance.
5.40 Kempton, our old friend the mare Inquisitress is in decent form for a low grade handicapper, is in decent form and has four course wins to her name, runs off a decent mark and a 3lb claimer on board as well, she has traded in 10 of her last 11 races and may do so again tonight. Although she has 4 wins to her name here she can also thrown in the odd 'mare' here so not nailed on. Back at 9.6 to lay off at 5.7 or 6.2.
8.40 Kempton Dunseverick is a gelding who finds very little at the business end of a race but that has not stopped the gelding trading in his last four races including twice odds on, once over this course and distance, this is not a great race and once again he may flatter to deceive but get us a trade in the meantime. 11/1 at the bookies, back at 12 to lay off at either 7.2 or 7.8. Price - not the type to back for a win so may well drift a fair bit.
19.58 I did say that the 8.40 may be a drifter and that is the case, at the moment you can get 18.5 which would leave a lay off price of 11 or 12.
6.00 Pontefract, Viking Rose at 24 to lay off at 14 or 15.5, again, just not enough hours in the day for a closer look.
Both our horses traded yesterday, one of them winning at 11.07 (was also our Write Up horse) having traded as high as 330 in running. Again some experimental ones for today in the guise of the following,
In the 3,45 at Doncaster today our trading horse will be the course and distance winner Eton Forever, a winner here in the Lincoln where he destroyed the field and he can go well again here after being off for 87 days. In nhis seven race career he has traded all seven times and short at that, more than halving in price compared to his betfair SP every time. Backed at 5.2 leaving an in running lay off price of 3.4 for a 1 pt all green or lay off at 3.1 for an all green scree and 1.3 pts profit.