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Jinxy's Trading Post Blog

Christmas come early?

03 Dec 11 14:36
In the 3.20 at Aintree a horse that has proved himslef over these fences is Santas Son and he is the one I'm pinning my faith in for another trade this afternoon. Last time out was his first for this stable and he performed well before being beateb just half a length by Nikola. The distance is fine Santas Son today, the going is not a problem and I'm thinking that Campbell Giles can keep this prominent racer up there long enough for his price to drop and allow us to green up. He has traded in seven of his last eight Chases, today should be the ninth. Available to back at 10.5 leaves us needing:

Lay off at 6.8 for a one point all green screen or
Lay off at 6.2 for at least a 1.3 pt all green profit or
Lay off at 5.6 for a 1.7 point all green screen

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In the 2.05 at Chepstow I'm looking to an unexposed eight year to give us our second trade of the day in the three mile Handicap Chase. Tarablaze ran well in the John Smiths at Aintree, he handles the soft going and has proved himslef over the distance, the gelding goes well fresh has a decent strike rate and can go well enough this afternoon to give us a trade. Todays task should be much more to his liking and 17 is too big a price for him I think, which leaves us needing an in running lay off of:

Lay of at 11 for a minimum 1 pt all green screen
Lay off at 10 for a minimum 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 9 for a minimum 1.7 pt all green profit. 
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In the next at Wetherby a horse coming back down in class is the one I'm hoping to get a trade out of this afternoon. Last time out the six year old gelding Rossmore Lad perfomed quite well in a lissted handicap hurdle at Cheltenham but will find this Class 4 Handicap Hurdle much more to his liking. The lightly raced Rossmore Lad won at Chepstow the race before that and should go well again today, at least well enough to give us a trade. Distance and going are not a problem, the running style is normally that of a hold up horse so the trade may well come late in the race. Available to back at 6.6 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of :

Lay off at 4.3 for a 1 pt all green screen
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 3.5 for a minimum 1.7pt all green screen.

Some have messaged me to ask about the staking, it's always 2 pts win with the lay off stakes being at either, 3.05, 3.35 or 3.75 pts.
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Get your rocks off baby

01 Dec 11 18:26
The nest at Wolves sees a consistent (trading wise) type take part, gelded since his last run, he had previously been available to trade in nine of his eleven races to date including two at this course. His course record is 2/3 and with Dale Swift taking three pounds off his back he is effectively as low as his last winning mark. Royal Bajan is normally just off the pace and in tonight's Class 5 Handicap I think he should still be there or thereabouts coming to the furlong pole and that should be enough for his price to drop in running and give us a decent trade tonight. He was available to back as high as 12 earlier on but for now we will have to settle for 7.4 which will leave us needing an in running lay off price of:

Lay off at 4.8 for a minimum 1 pt all green profit
Lay off at 4.4 for a 1.3 all green screen or
Lay off at 3.95 for a 1.7 all green profit 
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A dog or a horse?

01 Dec 11 16:57
Looking at the stats I think we can manage to get a trade in the next at Wolverhampton on the Polytrack. A horse who has been called many things in the recent past but has a good trading record at this distance has drifted to a decent price coming up to the off. The horse in question is the gelding Berbice, a winner last time out over this course and distance, his first try on the Polytrack. Looking back over his record on good/firm and firm shows a record of him trading in thirteen of his fifteen races and his record at seven furlongs shows him being available to trade in his last fifteen consecutive attempts at that distance, not to be sniffed at. Class 6 is where he belongs, Julie Burke has ridden him before and this generally hold up performer may just go well enough again today to give us another trade. He is available to back at 9.8 meaning that we ned in running prices as follows for a decent trade:

Lay off at 6.4 for a 1 pt all green or
Lay off at 5.8 for at least a 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 5.2 for at least a 1.7 all green screen.
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A Sly trade this afternoon?

01 Dec 11 12:31
Market Rasen is the venue where I'll try and get a profitable trade for us this afternoon. At 3.00, a Class Four Handicap Hurdle is the race and I'm thinking that a horse which is way overpriced at the moment and I think will shorten enough pre race or in running to allow us to go all green. The Pam Sly trained and part owned Chicklemix is the horse, ridden by David England who has rode him four times to date and managed to get the horse into a position where his price dropped to trading levels in all four races, Chicklemix has competed in eight hurdle races to date and has been available to trade in all eight races, four times to odds on in running. Its not a guaranteed trade but the price seems far too high to me, the mare is a hold up merchant so this trade is not for the faint hearted but two recent runs should have her spot on for this, he has won over slightly further and the ground is not an issue. Available to back at 15.5 leaving us needing an in running lay off price of -

Lay off at 10 for a one point all green profit or
Lay off at 9.2 for a minimum 1.3 all green profit or
Lay off at 8.2 for a minimum 1.7 pts all green. 
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A right crew

30 Nov 11 18:28
The next on the all weather at Kempton is where I think we can get our next trade from today, the horse in question has been a revelation since blinkers have been applied, winning two and second once in his last three races. Two of those wins have been on the copletely different fibresand but Mottley Crewe has won on the Polytrack over  six furlong at Wolverhampton so tonights surface should pose no problems. Martin Harley gets on well woth him and his three rides have seen Mottley Crewe available to trade in all three of those races. Available to back at 6.4 leaves us needing an in running lay off price of,

Lay off at 4.2 for a 1 pt all green profit or
Lay off at 3.8 for a 1.3 all green profit or for the needy and greedy amongst us
Lay off at 3.4 for a 1.7 all green profit
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A big price sailor boy

30 Nov 11 13:39
A late decision as Dont Tell Sailor has drifted to a huge 16 before the off, a chaser he is and a trade for one point at 11.5 lay off is the way here I think.
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Bazart

30 Nov 11 12:47
In the forthcoming race at Hereford, a class four Handicap Hurdle the horse that appeals to me most when looking for a trade in the race is Bazart, this horse has a pull in the weights with Rolanta who beat him last time out, prior to that he had won nicely twice and overall has been available to trade in nine of his last ten hurdle races. At the business end of the race he should be there or thereabouts enabling his price to drop enough to get us a decent trade. Backed at 6.2 leaves us needing a lay off in running at@

Lay off at 4 for a 1 point all green screen or
Lay off at 3.7 for a 1.3 all green screen or for the more needy
Lay off at 3.3 for a 1.7 all green screen.
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Tregaro...

30 Nov 11 12:58
In the next at Catterick a horse that has had just had just the two runs over fences is the one I'm looking to get a trade for us this afternoon. In those two races he has finished fourth and second and traded to well below his BFSP both times and hopefully will do so again today. Tregaro is just a five year old so there should be plenty of improvement to come from him in this sphere. He has traded all three time when ridden by todays jockey Dennis Oregan. Available to back at 4.4 leaves us needing in running lays at:

Lay off at 2.9 for a one point all green profit
Lay off at 2.62 for a 1.3 all green screen or for the more ambitious
Lay off at 2.36 for a 1.7 all green profit.
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4.1 (3 Ratings)
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