15th Sep 11 12:34
A few each day I think for the last few days leading up to the Great North Run. I almost fancied going through the card at Ayr but common sense prevailed.
2.20 Ayr, Cool in The Shade is in fine form. Since his seasonal début he has ran a further nine times trading to at least half his betfair SP in all nine races, further analysis shows that in three races over the minimum distance he has traded to odds on in each race, to 1.01, 1.37 and 1.16 all in this grade. Up just 2lb for his maiden win, the Midgley stable is in fine form and backed at 11 leaves a lay off in running of either 6.4 for a 1.3 pt all green screen (with a win bonus) or lay off at 7.2 for a 1 pt all green. Pricewise - anything can happen in these big field low grade handicaps.
2.50 Ayr, Storming Bernard has some useful form to his name in the context of this race and if allowed a soft lead then Darryll Holland is just the man to take advantage in this small field Novices Stakes, the step up in trip should suit and the ground is no problem. Pricewise - currently 3.5 at the books so a possible drift on betfair might happen. Backed at 3.55 leaves us needing a lay off price of 2.12 for a 1.3 all green or lay off at 2.34 for a 1 pt all green
3.20 Did think about Swiftly Done in this, still in good form despite being 11lb higher than winning over C&D, 6 and either 3.6 or 3.95
3.50 Take It To The Max, bigger at the bookies than on here at the moment, still available at 7/2 (boyles and SB, was 4/1 for us earlybirds!!))Back to his best distance today and back down in grade which will also suit, available to trade in all of his last nine races, ground is fine, distance is right and Hanagan in the the saddle. Backed at 5 needing an in running lay off at either 3 for 1.3 or 3.3 for a one point all green. Price - he has been pushed out to 7/2 so perhaps may drift a little.
4.20 Hot Rod Mama and Verglas Star, 7.8 and 5.1 but no decision.
4.50 Hayek at around 13 to lay off at either 7.8 or 8.4, just not enough hours in the day to look in depth.
5.20 Distant Waters, if around 6.6 to lay off at 4.9 or 4.4, still drifting, just not sure about the distance.
5.40 Kempton, our old friend the mare Inquisitress is in decent form for a low grade handicapper, is in decent form and has four course wins to her name, runs off a decent mark and a 3lb claimer on board as well, she has traded in 10 of her last 11 races and may do so again tonight. Although she has 4 wins to her name here she can also thrown in the odd 'mare' here so not nailed on. Back at 9.6 to lay off at 5.7 or 6.2.
8.40 Kempton Dunseverick is a gelding who finds very little at the business end of a race but that has not stopped the gelding trading in his last four races including twice odds on, once over this course and distance, this is not a great race and once again he may flatter to deceive but get us a trade in the meantime. 11/1 at the bookies, back at 12 to lay off at either 7.2 or 7.8. Price - not the type to back for a win so may well drift a fair bit.
19.58 I did say that the 8.40 may be a drifter and that is the case, at the moment you can get 18.5 which would leave a lay off price of 11 or 12.
6.00 Pontefract, Viking Rose at 24 to lay off at 14 or 15.5, again, just not enough hours in the day for a closer look.
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Comments: 7
Another fecking winner, you are de man indeed Jinxy, 4/4 so far today, at this rate I'll be able to buy a new combine harvester !!!
Steady on lads, the five main Write Ups are the ones. The others successful or not were just quick thoughts, although it was tempting to try and trade through the card at Ayr.
Had we decided to have a go through the card in the handicaps at Ayr then only Hayek would have stopped us being successful, even then though had you waited for the drift to 24 you could have traded out at 14 before the off, too late for all that stuff though, the lay off price for Distant Waters had in been a choice was 3.9 and 4.4 and not 4.9 and 4.4, typo error., went as low as 1.57 in running.
I did say that Dunservrick may be a drifter and that is the case, at the moment you can get 18.5 which would leave a lay off price of 11 or 12.
Yesterday 4/5 or 5/5 if you waited to get the best price on Dunserverick.
Cool In The Shade traded down to 2.2
Storming Bernard traded down to 1.01
Take It To The Max traded down to 1.01
Inquisitress traded down to 3
Dunservick failed to trade unless you took the 24 on offer at one stage, in which case it did trade.
Of the others that I mentioned without giving them a write up,
Swiftly Done, traded down to 1.67
Verglas Star traded down to 1.52
Vikinbg Rose traded down to 4.1
Hayek didnt trade
All the successful trades made a 1.3 pt profit for a very profitable day.
Cool In The Shade traded down to 2.2
Storming Bernard traded down to 1.01
Take It To The Max traded down to 1.01
Inquisitress traded down to 3
Dunservick failed to trade unless you took the 24 on offer at one stage, in which case it did trade.
Of the others that I mentioned without giving them a write up,
Swiftly Done, traded down to 1.67
Verglas Star traded down to 1.52
Vikinbg Rose traded down to 4.1
Hayek didnt trade
All the successful trades made a 1.3 pt profit for a very profitable day.
Have got 12.5 for Cool in the Shade, just need 8.2 now for a profit.