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World Athletics
World Athletics
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I do know what you probably meant is it's wide open.
ty. |
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In the men's 1500m, 3k SC, 10k and marathon, pretty sure you could have got at least 33/1 on all of them pre event. The 400m and 200m might well follow suit. They don't happen very often in athletics, but to have so many at one event must be unprecedented. I was questioning whether I've ever had such a big priced winner in athletics, but after scratching my head I remember two. I did buy GB at 1 on the spreads for a make up of 49 for the relay in 2004, and Centrowitz at 55 on here iirc in 2016. That was the event that took me over £1m in lifetime gambling profits so I should remember that one!
Not so good this time. My main fancy was Alfred for the 200m, and she's pulled out with a hamstring tear. |
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I didn't watch the relay in 2004 as my wife booked a holiday at Centre Parcs. I was hoping they could squeak a medal and was shocked when I found out they'd won it.
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I'm not sure I even knew they'd made the final
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Unfortunately, bookmakers not too keen to pay on what might have been a good bet a week ago. Question is whether Levell is a good bet now at 11/8? As per opening post, for all the decent chat, not sure anyone has put up a winner - pre-race - at odds against.
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You'd need a crystal ball to put up some of the winners.
I haven't put up any advice on races already run, but I'll put a couple with books at decent prices yet to run which is Hocker in the 5k who is 6/1 or 7/1 as I've already alluded to. Be patient and the high street books should copy. I also think Mullings is a decent bet in the discus. 9/1 with Hills and 8/1 in some other places Jamaica are going really well as a nation, he's young and improving and has beaten the odds on fave in 2 of their 4 meetings this year, including in the DL final last time out. Obviously I've also said I think McLaughlin isn't the shoo in the market thinks either. |
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My feeling is Levell is too short, but that's just instinct. I haven't looked at the race in any detail.
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bookmakers wont take a bet..yest after i posted that sydney was 1/20 with b356 and 1/6 with betfraud,when i got home 6-15 ish i went to betfrauds with 6k in readies..goes to counter asks for betting for womens 400m..lass behind counter says 1/6..hands her the slip with £6000 win Mclaughlin ... obv says i'll have ring up..i says aye no bother,6 mins later says sorry the price is now 1/8.
absolute fkn w@nkers. |
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Well done for putting a couple up and good luck. I don't follow the field events so wouldn't have a clue on that.
I backed Naser at the start so if she now pulled off the big shock it would almost feel like a loss. I wouldn't dream of going in at double figures now. As I have said above I can see her having a real go, but ending up third. I have also gone with Nene, Levell and Benjamin. Not my usual bet at all but I have tried to cover a bit of stake money on JW. She looks in a different league to me and I think should be considerably shorter. Got to be careful with that sort of bet if don't want accounts to be closed. |
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^ So does that mean you haven't had anything on McLaughlin?
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Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone 1.17 £1,497.90 £253.89 Total stake: £1,497.90 up to now..was gona have 5k on but now 1.12...i cannot see her being beat so still a fair price imo. |
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As you would expect McLaughlin also has the best of the draw with Naser and Paulino on her outside.
A couple of the 200 metre semifinals could be competitive. Levell is outside Tebogo. Bednarek has the easiest heat. |
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I laid £300 @1.16 £300 @1.13 and over £2k @1.12 on McLaughlin. So I hope you lose. It takes me over the Expert Fee threshold if she gets beat, which isn't a good thing. After fluctuating over and under it in the first half of the year I had intended to keep below it. I'll prolly get that wish. It's when you are right and everyone else is wrong though that you get the big spoils.
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I have backed MJW too. But since I'd already backed Alfred I'm on a loser there whatever happens.
Very difficult to get money on athletics post COVID, and there is a much more limited choice of markets and much bigger overounds too. I had 2 bets online in 2023 on athletics. The first was dutching the Kenyans in the CG against McColgan, which were backed from 3/1 coupled into about evens coupled, and the 2nd was the Dutch in the mixed relay when Bol fell metres from the finishing line. That was backed down from 5/1 into 6/4. Both lost and three accounts got closed. One was my nephew's 365 account. He didn't seem to care though. Kills your motivation and puts you off going to the effort tbh. Athletics has always been my favourite sport to watch though, so I do have a pretty good knowledge of the sport from that and 25 years of solid betting on it. |
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I've had 1.25 1.77 2.5 1.55 winners, a 10/1 loser and Alfred at evens and 2.15. But I'm down because I lost more on Alfred than I won on all the other bets, because that was the only one I could get a decent bet on.
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The outside lane is often decried, but statistically it's the fastest lane in the 200 and 400m. That's what possibly Warholm was hoping for when he eased up. He has openly stated he prefers the outside lane. Unfortunately for him, he drew lane 4 and not lane 9. The heat winners drew lanes 5 to 8, the other two runners up get lane 4 or 9.
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It used to be you got lane 3 to 6 and the other two runners up got 7 and 8. I'm not sure when they realised they had to change that, but it was reasonably recent. It was a long time after I realised that the outside lanes were best. It did take me a few years to cotton on mind.
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I'm pretty sure it was when when Miriam Soumare won the 200m at the 2010 European Championship in the outside lane. She was over 200 on Betfair. I've benefitted from that realisation several times since
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only just got to watch the mens 400m semi's from yesterday..nene won in a canter..kebinstashibi done a fast time but ran hard..ndori moderate time and looked to have ran hard..looked at betting..cannot fathom out how patterson who qualified as fast loser is only 11/4
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mens 200m how impressive was Levell
been done at 40 as well. |
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how the fck is bol 1.16 for 400m hurdles..bar a fall imo.
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Kebinathshipi's performance in the semi was one of the most unexplainable performances I've ever seen. He was a fastest loser on an inside lane and beat his PB by 0.62secs. He's had a very busy season and only has a winning h2h record against Eppie amongst all the finalists. Along with Richards he's easily the quickest at 200m and was first to the 200 mark in his semi. He just kept going. He ran flat out but he wasn't blowing at the end. He probably doesn't match that performance in the final but maybe he doesn't have to. As regards Patterson, he ran 43.90 in the heats which is faster than anyone else bar the Botswanan in the semi. 43.90 might be enough for gold. He's also the fave going in and most consistent performer this year. Lane 3 ain't great though. Nene has the best draw and the only one that seemed not to go flat out. He'd prolly be my pick at the prices too. I'd have liked Richards or McDonald from an outside lane as a potential shock, but then they wouldn't be such big prices if they had the outside lane.
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How they cope with the pressure of expectation is always the unknown factor. If they run fast in the earlier rounds then the target is suddenly on their back. Can they replicate as a favourite rather than an outsider? If Levell can repeat what he did in the heats another twice then clearly he can win. Had he not eased down he would have produced the best time this year.
I think JW is just as likely to win as Bol and is 1/4? I think her 100 is the standout performance so far. Is she intending to run the 4 x 100? Assuming they get the baton round and she is within striking distance surely the US wins - 4/5. Prices (365) for the 200 heats - Bednarek 1/16 Levell 8/11 Lyles 1/6. Pretty much what you might expect although Lyles might be vulnerable against Makarawu (7/2). |
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He is going to need around 19.5 to win the men's 200m, based on the 100m times of Lyles Tebogo and Bednarek.
The women's events interested me more because I thought there was a chance that the 1980 WRs could be broken here. I was thinking Alfred had the possibility to beat it in the 200 mind. Would have needed a good following wind. Had the following wind been up near the allowable limit in the 100m MJW would have been very close to breaking it. The 400 was so stacked that I thought there might be a chance there too. If the old Athing Mu had been in the 800m to toe Keely along, I think that WR was possibly on the cards too. 7 of the 8 runners in the 800m at the Tokyo Olympics broke their PB |
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That assumes that those three are at their best. Nothing so far to suggest that is the case. Lyles has looked laboured in every run, and Tebogo was showboating against nothing in the first round. Bednarek will look good in an easy semi, but he is always vulnerable to being run down over the last 20 metres. He has also had plenty of races in the US this year. Levell eased down in the first round. Had he run through the line that would more than likely have been good enough to win a final. If he can repeat, I think he wins. Interesting to see what he does today against Tebogo. He could coast and have a very easy qualification.
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That was based purely on their 100m times in Tokyo dd, and comparing it to the 2024 Olympics, so is based on their current form. So for example, Tebogo ran 9.94 with a 0 headwind here. At the 2024 Olympics his best run was 9.91 with a 0 headwind and he ran 19.46 with a 0.4 following headwind in the final in Paris. So based on the 100m here he's in roughly the same form as a year ago.
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A +1m/s following wind is worth a bit under 0.1 secs (apparently) My nerdy analysis would adjust that by about 0.07/0.08secs so although Tebogo ran 9.86 secs in the final in Paris in the 100m, if you add 0.08 that is 9.94 which is exactly what he ran here.
Lyles had flu during the 200m in Paris so you'd take his time and compare it to another global championships |
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MJW ran 10.61 with a +0.3 following wing. If it had been right at the allowable limit of +2 m/s. Deducting 0.13 secs from the 10.61 would have been 10.48. And I believe Flo Jos WR is 10.49. With the right conditions it can be beaten
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Lyles ran 9.89, a SB in the final of the 100m. In 2023 he ran 9.83 with a 0 wind and 19.52 into a 0.2 headwind. So based on that his 100m form here equates to about 19.6 here. But he is a proven championship performer. Bednarek was in the 19.6s too. It's never exact, but if those figures come out at 19.5-19.65, I'd expect on average one of them will run to 19.5 or thereabouts. Levell looks like he might be able to beat that ofc
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Lyles ran 19.31 +0.4secs in the 2022 final. He didn't run the 100m that year. His best 100m time that year was only 9.95 with a 0.3 following wind. I think he's took the 100m much more seriously since then, but it does indicate that Lyles could run faster that 19.5. In the US trials he ran 19.63. He didn't have to run the 100m there. His best this season was 10 flat wind adjusted so that's a 0.1 improvement on his season best. A 0.2 improvement on 19.63 is in the 19.4s
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So I'd say the relative prices of Lyles Tebogo and Bednarek look about right. I'd need to watch Levell's performance again and see how that could possibly compare to how fast he'll likely run in the final
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A nice jog round for Keely
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The shocks continue with a 25/1 poke in the men's javelin. Odds on fave only fifth.
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Hocker been backed from 7/1 into 3/1 with Kambi for the 5k. He's 7/1 with 365 and that surely isn't going to last long.
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Hodgkinson looked very red in the face. Is that usual? They are saying that the temperature has dropped a bit which should help a few who have looked to struggle with the heat. Warholm, perhaps one of those.
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Not something I've ever noticed
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the wet track is going to slow the times down.
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Great run from Amy there
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Lyles will no doubt go back favourite again. He ran that like a final and I doubt he will go any quicker. Clearly a point to prove. Question is can he repeat, and can Levell match him?
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Sydney is A GREAT SWIMMER.
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