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Hocker now a best priced 4/1 I think. So hopefully someone else got on at the 6 and 7/1
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I haven't backed him which given what has happened this week is probably a good thing. Doesn't look to be a standout in the race. What's your reason for backing him given his limited form over the distance. Is it purely that in a slowly run race he might have the best finish? His positioning in races has looked questionable more than once, and of course that's what got him kicked out of his more familiar event.
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Posted this before, so I've copy and pasted
Ingebritsen clearly isn't close to 100% Laros has peaked too soon and has no credible form (yet) over 5k All the Ethiopians are running average or poorly The other two Americans ran below par in the 10k There aren't any good Kenyans. The 1500m 10k and Steeplechase have all been run at a slow pace Gressier and Almgren who won gold and bronze in the 10k are not elite athletes I know he's a 1500m runner and has no real pedigree at 5k, but he did win the US trials without extending himself and that's quite a stacked event these days. He's fresh thanks to being dq'd in the 1500m and he's clearly peaked his season for the WC and is the only elite athlete who is in form. Plenty of 1500m runners have won the 5k stepping up in trip and this race is looking far weaker than it did 5 days ago. Whether he can do two rounds or handle a fast pace? I'd have him the clear fave if it was a one off race with a slow pace. |
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Go back 6 years Ingebritsen was the only Caucasian athlete within 30 seconds of the winner. Go back another 2 years the first 7 were all African born. Now 7 of the first 8 in the betting are Caucasian athletes. You'd have been considered mad if you had suggested that in 2019.
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I've been asking myself why. Gressier said Ingebritsen had showed him it was possible. That's prolly a factor, but I think it's more likely to do with science and nutrition. Either the Africans were cheating, and now they can't get away with it. Or, advances in nutrition/science now being used by Western athletes negates the natural biological advantage of the Africans, or African athletes are not up to speed with these new advances yet. Maybe a combination of all 4.
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just been watching womens 400m hurdles semi's again..how can Bol be beaten? Muhammas 2nd fav? she cannot possible beat Bol...at 1.1 Bol is better value than Mclaughlin was.Wins easily barring accidents.
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I can see the Hocker reasoning but Amusan at 6/4 in the hurdles semi-final is my only winner this week so applying caution. She was also my only unlucky bet this week as I think if she had been drawn next to the shock winner she would have reeled her in. If Levell, Benjamin and JW won that would even things out, but it could easily be that I have underestimated Llyes and Warholm. Did think about having a dart at the 800 metres, but it's too much of a puzzle. Wanyonyi hasn't looked great in qualification, but I expect him to revert to going hard off the front end. If it is a slow race then he looks vulnerable. Not sure you can rely on Attaoui in the tactical stakes. Same goes for Sedjati who I think was favourite for the Olympics, but is now 14/1. Arop is steady, but doesn't win enough.
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just been watching womens 400m hurdles semi's again..how can Bol be beaten?
A_T 13 Sep 25 14:30 nailed-on certs for these champs mostly in the womens: kipyegon 1500 keeley 800 bol 400 hurdles chebet 5000 hope rico got on when I tipped her |
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pretty good start for kjt - hurdles just 4 hundredths slower than her Paris time
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I do have a view in the mens 800m. I'm not on yet mind
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Bol is a cert..very short but bar a fall.
jefferson womens 200m also looks a cert. mens 200m. only 4 can possibly win.. levell looked very good in heats..impressive in semi 19:78..deffo will be way faster than that tebago a yd behind him but looked comfy also lyles 19:51 quickest time this yr but looked like he was running a final..may have took edge off him. obv no certainty and last night was looking at b365 match ups and seen levell was 6/4 v lyles..i think thats fair was gona bet him but its just a guess and these sprints are dangerous for betting as a minor blip and kapoot..so havent bet either..also think tebago at 8/13 is fair to bet bednarek. will be betting Bol and Jefferson. gl if betting |
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Bakkali is running in the heats of the 5k. He's obviously fuming he didn't win gold SC. He's only ever run the event once and was 6th in a DL race this year behind a few of these, so he shouldn't win at all. But he's in better form now and this race is a race where there are doubts about the whole field so at 80/1 with 365 (NQ anywhere else) might be worth a tenner if you can get on. The marathon 1500m and 400m winner really had no right to win either. I could have made a case for Beamish and Gressier winning (both very good kickers)
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I would've bet Tebogo in the h2h had he been drawn outside Bednarek. But he's in 5 and Bednarek 8 so it's a no bet for me. Lyles in 7 again. He's been 7 or 8 every round. That's good for him. I do wonder if he'd be such a good bend runner in lane 5.
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Market seems to be all over Lyles. I think Bednarek should be a bit shorter than 25/1, but it probably rests between the top two. I assume Lyles will try and blast from the start again, and expect to be stronger in the last 20 metres. It could be a real burn up early as Bednarek doesn't hold back. The old Tebogo could take advantage, but to me he doesn't look on his Olympic form.
Just going back to Hodgkinson. It may not be significant because of the buffer, but she clearly has an issue with the heat. Yesterday should have been a stroll, but she looked considerably worse than any other winner on the day. Nobody mentioning it directly, but it was pretty obvious. |
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I said Lyles there I obv meant Levell in 7 again
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2 for an interest in the 5000M - Almgren & Mehary.
GL ALL |
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I thought Keely was easy myself. Mebbe I'll have to watch again. Her form and pedigree is far better than the rest of the field. The worst race I can ever remember her running was when she won the European Championship (she said herself she's been suffering with some sort of virus pre event) She did win silver in Tokyo 4 years ago, so I don't see why the heat would be a problem now. I didn't have a bet pre race because she was so short but I have backed her ew for SPOTY at 50/1 (for the place) Her form this year in her 2 races this year is the best she's ever looked and she is 2 seconds quicker than everyone else. That's a lot. You'd prolly have to go 20+ deep in the men's event to get a 2 second gap.
Obviously she's the golden girl of British Athletics. So I want her to win and win well as a partisan supporter ![]() |
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The one I didn't think looked great was Werro. I was watching her particularly because of my Fantasy teams (it's done by country). Unless it's glaringly obvious, there's a huge difference between heats and semis as regards assessing how well someone is going.
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If someone is 1/8 I wouldn't want to see any signs of distress after what should have been a first round stroll. To misquote Barry Davies just look at her face. Some bookmakers have eased her and she is now as 'big' as 1/4.
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jefferson-wooden will win. i'd love to see tobogo get gold but he'll fall a bit short - lyles for me.
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Just going back to Hodgkinson. It may not be significant because of the buffer, but she clearly has an issue with the heat. Yesterday should have been a stroll, but she looked considerably worse than any other winner on the day. Nobody mentioning it directly, but it was pretty obvious.
it's a lot cooler now and forecast to stay that way. only risk to her is getting involved in maura's games in varying the pace |
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That wasn't great again from Hodgkinson in what looked an ordinary semi. When you expected her to go away I don't think there was much in the tank. She will drift again.
Hocker qualified comfortably, but no more comfortably than the winner. The second race was run at a farcical pace. Had to laugh at Cram continually bigging up Kemboi when he was running an awful race. KJT in a battle to get any medal. |
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keeley is probably now feeling the 12 months out of action - I think she'll have enough though
not sure what to make of warholm these champs he hasn't looked good but his run in august would be good enough to win this |
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I suspect the people who were expecting her to win half the straight will now just take any win.
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Bol drifted last couple hours 1.05 > 1.12 now with 4k happy to lay...why i wonder.
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Maybe since Bol was a bit disappointing in the olympic final?
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4/7 for peanuts on here.
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Definitely not disappointing there
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just incredible whys shes drifted to 1.14 from 1.05..still wins as she should have.
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Wow Benjamin DQed apparently
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Moves last barrier adjacent to him
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ridiculous if benjamin loses gold for that
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concur with ennis..complete madness..accidental and in no way did it affect the placings.
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Been reinstated as Gold medal winner. Surely not going to rechange it now.
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sensible decision.
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rico intervened and made them see sense. wd rico
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that anna hall is ripped - looks totally different from the olympics
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Benjamin was in a different league. Thank goodness he didn't come down. I didn't underestimate Warholm. Bluffed his way through.
Bol won, but not as easily as expected. She chopped her stride several times, and wasn't really going away as Cram was suggesting. |
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Noah Lyles was impressive in the Semis
1.75 seems very fair - think he may win by a length or so |
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Wonder if he can get under 20:50
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