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Start Of The Jumps
Start Of The Jumps
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KICKING KING ?
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Good luck today, Sage. The front 3 look strong in that one but I'd probably go with you on Trelawne if I had to pick. Had one bet today in the last on Be Aware. He's be on my radar since his debut win at Newbury back in January. I loved his comeback run at Chelters which told me he's still improving. I took as much of the 13/2 and 6/1 on here as I could and he's probably the right price now. The race looks like it should setup nicely for him with plenty of pace on up front.
Happy Christmas chaps! |
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Credo,this has got a big pull in the weights with Famous Bridge on last years running,
taken with the jocks 10LB. |
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Mullins is not making much headway in defending his GB trainers championship. I know that 10 winners at Cheltenham and a few at Aintree would be enough but so far in 2024/5 he has 5 wins and a few places worth £34,000.
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I suppose you could argue Kauto Star, but that was 15 years ago. Personally, I don't think Best Mate would have won any Gold Cup's had Look's Like Trouble stayed sound. The Gold Cup now looks a race for thorough stayers. You would have thought that Denman would have fitted in well.
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No joy with Nettywell. He wasn't ridden quite as prominently as I would have liked. The Venetia horse was disappointing and the winner Sunnyvilla, not a horse I was that familiar with, bolted up from the front. In retrospect perhaps Nettywell is a bit high in the hcp to be giving weight away in races like this. Got some back on Crambo, but didn't put that one up!
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But it didn't stay sound while Best Mate did. So many horses have run well once in a Gold Cup but then never reproduced it. Imperial Call, Mr Mulligan, Cool Dawn, Little Owl. Many more.
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No doubt everyone will be blaming the horse, but irrespective of whether something was amiss, it was another overly cocky ride from Bowen. It's fine riding that type of race in rubbish races where you have a stone in hand, but not a Grade 1. He will always be no better than a journeyman jock. All the media do is big up the rides where he has been pushing and shoving for a bit (as if he is only one that can do that), and air brush the rubbish one's.
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So frustrating with Hartur D'Arc. He had looked an accident waiting to happen on the first circuit, but the jock had got him jumping much better. Then for some unknown reason he just leaves the horse alone, and you could see what was going to happen strides before the fence. He is not a horse you can get lazy on. Still plenty of race left, but at that stage he had every chance of fighting out the places. The Changing Man ended up doing what he is best at. Connections must really doubt him because they would surely try to win an ordinary novice chase. They must think he would get beat in that as well.
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walsh comes off more than his namesake did
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On Ballyburn, at the price he is for the Brown Advisory, I decided to take the chance that he'll end up in it so welcome this type of potential run for him at Kempton, although unlikely, as well as performances like Majboroughs in the hope that it will ultimately build a big enough case against an Arkle run and the 4/1 for the longer race might then look mighty big.
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It would be so much easier for punters if the trainer just realised that horse was a stayer instead of trying to shove him in the opposite direction. I can only imagine he actually loves what people call 'Mullins bingo'.
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sportinlife value best pays for Xmas with ftecerly proud at 16,s BOOM BOOM
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PW also
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only 12,s for TOM,s followers
ed chemberlains 20,s last night is in the realms of fairytyales never able since Thurs decs time |
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Woods rides another winner that Jones doesn't. Pauling doesn't half talk some twaddle. I am sure Jones will be delighted to have ridden the winner of a nothing race at Hereford. The whole set up looks stranger by the day.
Blue Velvet showed a good attitude to win the Thurles bumper, but likely it was a poor race. She will need to improve quite a bit to take a winners race, but that's not out of the question. Jock on Menas Miracle wouldn't look value if he was claiming 20lbs. |
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Should have noted that was another very good effort from one of last season's juveniles. They are increasingly looking like a strong bunch.
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if you think that was a good ride by woods you want sectioning
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the early pace was v fast & he wasn't that far behind the 3 that forced it
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before today's rides 10 years data
jones 1496 rides 211 winners proportional staking to BSP +8.8% before comm woods 2887 rides 324 winners proportional staking to BSP -4.0% before comm |
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TOME SCU burried a french jockey pre race on live tv saying he must win his rides in a raffle,but says nothing post race when 3 UK jocks on fancied rides in 100 grand races ,ride like absolute morons
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Yes, I noticed that, fitting seemlessly into his role.
As regards Jones, nobody on here praised him more than I did when he was starting out, but it's about what's happening now. The only thing that will register with owners is that Woods won a very competitive race today, and Jones won a novice hurdle. |
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My bad spelling - seamlessly
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Tomorrow is shocking, as was last Sunday, so had a look at a few Boxing Day entries.
Maybe I was a little harsh in suggesting that Mullins had some sort of a stranglehold on running horses over the wrong trip. Just noticed that Potters Charm is jocked up to run in the Formby Novices. Does avoiding the Challow mean you have to run the horse over the wrong trip? What is the point, he is clearly a strong stayer, and it seems the Twister is yet again guilty of thinking short term and trying to get away with it. Surely you want a smooth progression towards a main target, which is surely the Turners?. Not sure the Twister camp know what smooth means. It's all about the now, and probably why in recent years they have struggled to make any impression at the Festival. Most runners are a spent force by the time they get there. What's the point of Jeremy Scott running Golden Ace in the Christmas Hurdle? It appears that the trainer has responded to those who said she didn't stay at Ascot, rather than blame himself for a poor preparation. Those who declared her a non-stayer did they just forget that she bolted up over further than the Mares' Hurdle trip on the stiffer new course? That after her exertions at the Festival. I know where I would put the blame for the Ascot defeat. I would say the facts speak for themselves. |
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As usual I see things from an owner point of view. The 8 decs for the Xmas hurdle are not final Dec's yet. Nemean Lion won't run, Hendo will only run 1, Calico has little chance so Golden Ace has a great chance of first 4 or better getting more black type. It is not always about winning.
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The point I am trying to make is two-fold: it looks like a knee-jerk response to the Ascot run, and how does running over two miles progress her season? Jumping is her achilles heel. How is that going to be anything other than exposed further against championship horses on a sharp track? This could finish her season, is it worth that risk to finish fourth? Bottom line is she has no chance of winning a Champion Hurdle - unless she makes a ridiculous amount of improvement almost overnight in terms of jumping and ability - but if she retuns in similar shape to last March she does have a chance to win a Mares' Hurdle. What's happened to this much vaunted mares' programme? That would seem the way to build confidence, rather than destroy it.
For all those who have helped keep the thread going hope you all have a really enjoyable few days, and come back suitably recharged for the resumption of the battle on Boxing Day. |
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2 mares hurdle is just not there. One 2m mares race for older horses from now until Charlie Hall meeting. Granted there is a race over 2m 4f and 3m
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The irony is that she might finish second to Lossiemouth.
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https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/the-multiple-king-george-vi-chase-winners-ranked-including-wayward-lad-desert-orchid-and-kauto-star/222569
Anyone agree? I know I don't. |
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Can't really argue with Kauto Star and Desert Orchid. They were both Grade 1 winners from 2 miles to 3.3 miles-even further for Dessie. I think that Long Run is underestimated if you look at his best season rather than his whole career. He won one of the best Gold Cups in modern times.
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Wow! Just 4 in the Xmas hurdle and CH is one of them. Burdett Road will either be down to 10/1 or out to 100 by Thursday 2.15.
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The two I found most difficult were Halloween and Mandarin. I can't go that far back, and I don't have the form books, but I thought a horse who additionally won a Hennessy, Gold Cup, and a Grand Steeplchase should have been higher.
I ended up with:- 1 DESERT ORCHID, swaying it for me on his handicap performances. 2 CAPTAIN CHROSTY 3 PENDIL 4 SILVER BUCK, I think he was underrated. 5 KAUTO STAR 6 ONE MAN 7 WAYWARD LAD 8 LONG RUN 9 MANDARIN 10 THE FELLOW 11 SEE MORE BUSINESS 12 KICKING KING 13 CLAN DES OBEAUX 14 HALLOWEEN 15 SILVINIACO CONTI |
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I doubt whether Halloween would have fared well if they all raced together. He was quite small but very sound and consistent for Capt Smalley and Fred Winter but not for other riders. Have alook on Wikepedia. I always liked See More Business but his position is probably right. He would have won the other Gold Cup in which he was carried out by a horse pulling up. He was cantering at the last fence on the uphill stretch. He was transformed by blinkers in his winning year and luckily I was tipped off by the late great Richard Barber who trained him most of the time. Pendil is interesting. He probably didn't quite stay when beaten by The Dickler who would stay 4 miles. Both The Dickler and SMB won at the Didmarton ptp which was only 4 miles from where I lived for most of my life.
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One or two useful types got beat at Didmarton, including the high class pointers, Poulakerry, and Sally Furlong, and the useful stayer, The Ghost.
Well, Golden Ace isn't turning up, injury, or hopefully, the trainer thought better of it? Only four in the Grade 1 staying novice at Leopardstown. If they were desperate to run Ballyburn over Christmas, that is where he should have gone, but Mullins appears obsessed with this speed idea. Had a quick scan of the meetings, and several interesting runners, but not sure how many are good bets. The only early bet I have had is White Rhino. I liked him a lot last season, but he just missed out on the Pertemps, and then bombed at Uttoxeter. He hasn't done much wrong over fences, and I thought he had an each-way shout against The Jukebox Man who looked wild at Newbury. |
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I should have said that surprisingly, Wikipedia doesn't have anything for Mandarin.
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That is a surprise dd. I was rather surprised to find Halloween there from the 1950s. I also have a book called the Winter Kings by Ivor Herbert written in 1968 which has sections on 12 chasers from Lottery to Arkle. Both Halloween and Mandarin are included. Halloween was bought for £900 and sold for £8000! A lot of money in the 1950s.
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Perhaps the sound defeat of Dysart Enos has devalued Golden Ace a bit. They were only novice mares last season after all. Meanwhile Lossiemouth has a 7lb allowance to help against Constitution Hill. I await with interest the decs for the Wayward Lad tomorrow. If Ballyburn, Sir Gino, Kalif de Berlais and Rubaud all run it could be a cracker although I am not a great fan of 4yo chasers with only 6lb allowance. On good ground, Rubaud would just be my choice.
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Going back to the book how much detail do the chapters give? Does it give their full race records? I notice there was an updated version including the likes of Desert Orchid.
As for the novice chase if Sir Gino is as good as they say I would expect him to bolt up. Golden Ace didn't run against Dysart Enos. You could argue that Brighterdaysahead has done plenty for the form. |
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Dysart Enos was heavily backed both runs this season when beaten in handicaps so I just meant that perhaps novice mares can be overestimated until they run against geldings. Take your point about Brighterdaysahead though.
The book does have a history of each horse from purchase or even breeder and there is a detailed pedigree, photos and list of every run for each horse. We moan now about how few times horses run but it was very little different back in the day other than the number of seasons that many ran. Easter Hero seemed the most active with up to 9 runs in a season. My one finishes with Arkle injured but not retired. There may well have been an update. My own memories go back to 1952 when we first had a TV. Lochroe, Linwell, Pointsman, Halloween etc. all childhood memories. |
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Nicholls going for the Challow with Regent's Stroll. A case of if at first you don't succeed carry on doing exactly the same thing. Whatever happens in the Challow, history dictates he then goes to the Festival, and the horse gets beaten. You can set your clock by it. He had a chance to do something different with this horse as clearly Newbury suggested he didn't need to be rushed up in trip. He could easily have gone to Aintree on Boxing Day. In fact it would have made far more sense had he done that, and Potters Charm had gone to the Challow. It seems these trainers are intent on copying Mullins. Difference is that Mullins has so many top horses that when he makes a mistake nobody notices, let alone calls it out. Perhaps that might change with Ballyburn, but even that might be wishful thinking.
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