Well done Andrew.

Oh right. I couldn't understand your post - 5/2
Sorry about that

I bet A won't believe the SP was 5/2!

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the comments.

Movethechains was 9/4 early doors, but due to a significant NR went to 6/4 before drifting in the afternoon (SP 5/2). He won easily and would have done if 2 of the 5 runner field had competed the course, although the 3 that did finish were tired and he just about managed to get over the final fence. 10 of the original 18 fences were omitted and no finishers would have been a possibility if they had to be jumped. Nevertheless a good performance from a vastly improved chaser, up 35 lb from his initial win and 17 lb ahead of his previous mark. The handicapper will have his say again, although will obviously consider the weight received yesterday (16 lb) from the runner-up.

I suspect he will be given a break now, he had a hard race yesterday, but it wouldn’t surprise me if his winning run continued. All his 4 NH rules wins have been over the CD so it will be interesting where he goes next.

Statsman/PHS

I don’t have issues backing at low odds, even odds-on, but i don’t back because they are odds-on, but because if i think the odds are warranted.

I backed the winner in the morning before the NR as i thought 9/4 was a good price. I didn’t see the odds drift or the race per se (workload) only the result, but was very surprised to see 5/2 SP. We’ve all backed a horse and seen it drift later, some win, some don’t, but the odds certainly helped me in the naps competition.

Trusty

at Gary Moore groupie. No, it was simply coincidence. I like the stable, but  wouldn’t consider myself a follower by any means. I’ve backed Movethechains before (and put him up on here) but not so the Saturday runner.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

More later.

Going to try a lay today on Emmpressive Lady at 2.3 on here in the 3.40 at Hereford. This horse has a lot of entries before finally running and winning on Sunday and I don't think that running only 3 days later in another 3 mile slog is a wise idea. I really thought that Anythingforlove was the likely winner at 6/1 but I am wary of the drift this morning from 9/2 and have halved my stake.

Great call both of you !! PU.

Going back to the SuperBowl, I don't think Mack lost the bet bet as he was on the money line and the Bengals got 4 points, so he WON. Think RP have that story wrong!

Thanks for the clarification. Thought it was the other way.

Good morning Guys from a very windswept München, so bad in fact that local schools are closed today, a pity it wasn’t the same for aerospace companies.

Many thanks for the posts yesterday.

Emmpressive lady was touted as a viable lay by Trusty and myself, well backed (6/5f) but layers must have been content to see her struggling before halfway and she wasn’t in contention thereafter before being PU. I didn’t lay her financially, but did back my suggestion in the post, Bellatrixsa at 3.70 (not a significant stake). Another improving horse from the Venetia Williams production line, she could win with the stable cat at the moment. It was also my nap in the daily competition so a bonus.

It's Royal Artillery Gold Cup day at Sandown this afternoon (not to be confused with the Grand Military Gold Cup next month). This race is unique by the fact that runners have to be owned by past/present members of the RA and ridden by past/present serving armed forces personnel. The likely favourite is Hogan’s Height (currently 6/5) but i wouldn’t want to be lumping on this one. Often runs at Aintree, a world away from Sandown and although he won well enough at Ludlow LTO was assisted by a last fence faller. He will be tested by the 7 fences in the back straight, but he’s never fallen to be fair. Back up in class. I think Rolling Dylan could win if he can better (slightly) his penultimate run over CD.

In other racing news, we’ve all seen the opinion of Mr Ryanair with respect to Tiger Roll and his Grand National handicap weight, but in my opinion it’s all huff and puff and side-tracking the real issue, in that his chance of winning at Aintree is very slim. A wonderful horse, without question and his Cheltenham record of Triumph Hurdle, National Hunt Challenge Cup, Cross Country chase (3 times) and a GN will never be equalled. Sadly age catches up with the best of us and only 4 x 12 year olds have won the race since Red Rum in 1977.

Michael O’Leary has chosen to ignore the fact Tiger Roll was impressive in winning the Cross Country easily at the Cheltenham festival off a mark (rated 166) last year and whilst he hasn’t performed to that level in 3 runs since, the handicapper has relented a little to 161, relating to 11st 4lb, although the weight will certainly rise when the final declarations are known. The handicappers hands are basically tied, he has to determine a weight based on known guidelines, not emotion, or the ramblings of his owner. What weight did Michael expect anyway ?.

The record of winners/weights show how superb a performance Red Rum put up as a 12 year old carrying 11st 8lb and over fences that were light years away from the current type.

I noticed my ante-post EW selection (25/1) i posted recently for the Cheltenham Grand Annual Chase, Elixir De Nutz is now 16/1 generally although the larger price is still available with Sky-Bet for those that can get on. I may not be as reasonably confident as i am with Vauban, it is a handicap after all, but i really think he’s an EW bet. Looking at those lower in the betting i suspect quite a few will not run anyway.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

WD Andrew

Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

Rolling Dylan (2/1) jumped and won well holding off the challenge of the favourite Hogan’s Height relatively cosily on the run-in. The latter briefly looked a threat approaching the final fence, but was a little one paced when it mattered. Interesting to note that ownership of the winner was changed to Colonel James Ferguson on February 15th (at least on paper) so the race was presumably targeted knowing the entry conditions as we do. As the previous day, i didn’t lay the favourite, but backed the winner.

I don’t know if Kelso is still on this afternoon, but there wasn’t much i fancied backing or laying on the card anyway. Sounds Russian (2.30) is probably still well handicapped even after being raised 11lb, but the odds reflect this.

I thought odds of the front two in the 1.30, Grey Skies (10/11) and Escapeandevade (11/8) were the wrong way around as form of the latter is working out well. In his penultimate run, the one he beat Lord Rico has won since and although he was beaten by Bold Endeavour LTO, this one is unbeaten in 4 runs and improving. I expect him to lead and win, although taking on a Donald McCain runner at present is precarious as his winning strike rate over the past couple of weeks in 37% (11/30). Having said this, i was actually debating whether to post his runner as a lay earlier.

A quality meeting in Meydan and no weather issues there, but 4 of the 6 races feature an odds-on favourite although i doubt all of them will win. Charlie Appleby and William Buick are almost residents over there these days and look to have decent chances of bringing back Dirhams. If i had to back one of them it would be Silent Speech (2.35) who is almost certainly better than this conditions class and has the beating of many in the field on his last run, but i will not be playing there anyway.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Morning Andrew,

In fact, all four horses in yesterdays race officially changed hands on Feb 15th. What that actually means is that the real owners of those horses, simply leased them to owners that wanted a runner so that they would qualify. All quite legal, as a lease has to be registered with the BHA and the person that takes over the horse for a day, a week or a year, has to be a registered owner. The lease also has to state how any prize money won will be shared between the lessee and the owner.

I've done this myself, taking a filly on lease that the owner wanted to keep for breeding long term, in the hope that it would win a race in my name and increase it's value for the actual owner. It didn't and the lease was terminated by mutual agreement after three increasingly poor displays. The filly has had two foals since, bred to be NH runners, so yet to race.

It does rather emphasise how daft it is to continue with a race like the Royal Artillery Gold Cup, when the reality is that there are no horses actually owned by those that qualify.

As an aside, there's an old film called Carrington V C, in which David Niven stars as an Army officer who takes money out of the Company safe in order to place a bet on the horse he's riding at Sandown that afternoon. The horse wins and he returns the money, but a martinet Lt-Colonel insists he be court martialled for theft. The latter is played by Allan Cuthbertson, who does a brilliant turn as a stiff upper lip British military man, considering he was actually Australian.

Good morning Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

Escapeandevade let me down for a 4th consecutive winner this week finishing runner-up to the favourite Grey Skies, who provided the Donald McCain juggernaut with yet another winner (current strike rate 39% last 14 days).

He led as expected and the front 2 pulled clear before the penultimate flight, but it was clear the favourite was travelling better and even though he didn't jump the last cleanly drew away to win by 7L. Escapeandevade was dropping in trip, but i thought he would be difficult to peg back on the heavy going, he wasn't, and was simply beaten by a better horse on the day. I got this one wrong.

Sounds Russian hosed up and i was surprised at the 4/6 SP, i expected much shorter.

Charlie Appleby won a couple of soft Group 2/3 races at Meydan, albeit probably expected knowing how much they had in hand on ratings. Manobo was visually impressive winning by 5.5L, but what he beat is questionable, the runner-up was 66/1 and rated 22lb inferior and the 3rd 14lb. Not only that, but he was receiving 5 lb from most of the field.

Nevertheless a good run and will obviously be aimed at the decent staying races this season, and considering he won the Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp last year (Arc weekend) could be aimed at the Prix Royal Oak unless connections step him up in trip for Ascot on Champions day.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday.

More later.

Alan

Thanks for the information, i didn't check change of ownership dates for the field and it was only a passing glance that i noticed it for the winner. Interesting fact about all 4 entries being leased, i know the latter isn't uncommon in racing of course, but i never realised it could ever apply to a complete field. Mind you, knowing conditions of the race and your comments it makes sense i guess. I assume it's a similar situation in the Military Gold Cup then.

I guess many of us are aware of your more recent racehorse purchases, but not those from bygone days. Which one would you consider to have been the best buy of them ?

Trusty/Punchestown

I was a fan of ROTS last year and even put him up on here when he won at Ascot twice, including the race where he beat Cyrname (the 4/11f). He may have been lucky that day and it was a messy race anyway, but the handicapper lumped him with a mark of 162 and he hasn't won since, regressing in the ratings (now 145). Even the runner-up form figure at Aintree 3 runs ago is misleading until you look at it, 10 runners, only 2 finished.

Beaten some way from home yesterday, connections have to lower their sights and even then you couldn't back him until there are signs of a return to form.

Good morning Guys,

Some decent racing yesterday afternoon, albeit impacted by rain soaked ground and tired finishers, the Grand National trial at Haydock where only 3 crossed the winning line being just one example.

Several winners will be Cheltenham festival bound including the impressive and oddly named Teahupoo in the grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park. I was curious if his name meant anything so thanks to Google read it's a small village in Tahiti and venue for one of the surfing world championship tour events. It's also mentioned in Transworld Surf's list of 'Top 10 Deadliest Waves'. So now you know.

I doubt connections of Honeysuckle were overly concerned with the win (never won a Grade 1 and wants wants soft/heavy) but he's 6/7 now (runner-up in the other) has a turn of foot and in an 'ordinary' year (favourite aside) it wouldn't surprise me to see him placed.

At Ascot the well backed Good Risk All was also impressive, couldn't have won any easier and was obviously a grade horse running in a handicap. Travelled well and looked the winner from some way out (a good time considering the conditions). Connections are mulling over a Ballymore entry at the festival and he will certainly not look out of place in the field if he runs.

Elsewhere on the card, the Donald McCain winning machine continues to churn them out, operating at 41% strike rate in the previous 14 days (11/27). He's even got the audacity to travel south and win at our premier NH course, who does he think he is.

It would be noticed if i didn't mention a Gary Moore runner during a weekend (ref the poster Trusty and he had a couple of odds-on winners with Porticello and Goshen. The former won well and although i've put him up before (and like the horse) i don't see him as a likely Triumph Hurdle winner unless the going is very soft or heavy. As mentioned before i think he will turn out better as a staying type.

As for Goshen he's been been called various names in the past, but there's no doubt he's a battler, i thought he would throw in the towel yesterday when headed. It was good to see him win and it's not as though he doesn't deserve it.

At the time of typing, race meetings are subject to inspection, but if Navan goes ahead the grade 2 Ten Up Novice chase (4.05) is a stable match between Gordon Elliott (3 runners) and Noel Meade (2 runners) ignoring the outsider who will not be placed. The betting indicates Gordon will win (Beacon light has to concede 7lb to both) but with which one.

The front two are vying for favourtism, but i think the slightly longer priced Run Wild Fred (currently 2.80) is the one to be on. He has a touch of class, stays further than 24f, acts on soft and is a CD winner over fences. As a bonus Mark Walsh rides and is there a more in-form jockey around at the moment (8 wins from his last 10 rides). Mind you Farouk D'alene is a lightly raced, improving novice and will not be far away, but his jumping will need to be better than it was LTO at Naas.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

Thank you for posting details of your racehorse ownership, i'm sure many readers found it interesting. Salute was certainly a bargain, how many owners of newly purchased handicappers get a large chunk of their initial outlay back within a month, and to get prize money in 21 consecutive AW races may even be a record (i'm not going to check).

Love Dreams is also proving to be a nice place money earner as well and you've mentioned before what a pleasure he is to own. Speaking of the horse, i read some time ago the horse actually fell down the stairs at Meydan racecourse (before your ownership). 

https://www.racingpost.com/news/love-dreams-absolutely-fine-after-tumbling-down-stairs-into-bowels-of-meydan/365556

It's ironic in his preceding race, the winner was called Escalator.

Ashleigh

Many thanks for the update.

The Coral Cup entry release date is on Tuesday (22nd) so i will keep an eye on the weight allocations. He must surely be amongst the fancied runners, but i also had the Dan Skelton trained Unexpected Party in mind for an EW bet in the race.

So much for me posting a selection at Navan (abandoned).

Lay Post

Musselburgh 3.20 - Buster Valentine

A 9 year old Ask gelding trained by Mark Walford in Sherriff Hutton, Yorkshire.

First offspring from the dam who was a maiden in 2 bumper runs.

Lightly raced for a 9 year old and presumably had issues in late 2019 (716 day break).

Transferred from Ruth Jefferson thereafter and 3 runs for Mark. No impression on stable debut at Kelso (21.5f) but finished in the money with a 2nd and 3rd in subsequent runs (off 124) at Wetherby, both over 19.5f. Received 14lb from the winner in the first of these and only 5 finished (from 8) with one tailed off.

Ran to a similar level of form LTO (9/4f) and looked one paced in both races.

Reasonable runs on the same track nevertheless, albeit running over a sharper one this afternoon (did win at Market Rasen over hurdles).

A tricky handicap (only 5lb separates the field on RPR). Top rated (BHA) and conceding a weight range between 10lb-22lb to the field. If there is a risk relating to rivals, 4 of them were PU in their previous race.

Stable form is on the side of layers.

I feel odds of 13/8 are too short considering his overall form in an open race where any of the 6 runner field could win, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 3.00 (matched a little lower).

Good luck all.

20-Feb-22
12:26:51    15:20 Musselburgh
Buster Valentine - 3m Hcap Chs
Betfair Bet ID 1:259282325442 | Matched: 20-Feb-22 12:26:51    Lay    2.92    50.00    --    96.00
50.00
Matched

Good Luck ANDREW

WD Andrew

Well done Andrew

link to results

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=1129741996