Good morning Guys,

Thank you for the posts

I mentioned yesterday the cards looked a little tricky and the latter was almost the only thing i got right. The 3 lay proposed selections resulted in 2 unplaced, but the WPM trained Belle Metal (11/10) got up close home to win under an inspired ride from Paul Townend.

Only 2 back selections, both disappointing. When Espoir De Romay (Kelso) went to the front 3 fences out i thought he was going well enough to win, but approaching the last he didn't find much and dropped to 3rd (beaten 4L). I doubt it was lack of fitness, simply not good enough on the day. If i was going to lose, then i was happy for owner/trainer winning connections (Ian and Ann Hamilton) who are enjoying a wonderful season.

As for Al Suhail (Meydan) led at a decent pace for almost 5f, but downed tools and finished way down the field. Obviously not his true running, but he has been a quirky sort in the past and probably has the occasional sulk (as do many of us).

One winner that did look good on the card was Charlie Appleby's Man Of Promise who oozed class in winning easily. It was only a G3, but he looks a G1 performer in the making and may be difficult to beat in the Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup weekend.

I flipped through the cards earlier, but nothing jumped off the page so i will probably give it a miss. With Cheltenham only 9 days away next week will be low-key meetings although Sandown hosts the Military Cup card on Tuesday and Imperial Cup on Saturday. I arrive at Heathrow early on that morning so i could attend, but i want to see the card before deciding. I doubt there will be something akin to a bygone Martin Pipe runner with lbs in hand worth backing.

I'm off to an event at München Olympia Halle after lunch (area where the games were held). Horses are involved, but not for betting purposes, it's more of a European Tour/family entertainment show https://www.cavalluna.com/

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

Thanks for the Love Dreams update. Like yourself, i haven't seen any sectionals for the meeting yet although winning times of the first 2 races were good compared to standard (the track may have been slower later).

I've mentioned before on here i know Jeff Smith, i did some consultancy work for him a lifetime ago (around the Lochsong era) when he was director of a Bournemouth based aerospace company. I noticed he has a reasonably well bred 3 year old unraced filly Silver Dawn running later in the week (i saw it while checking his 4th placed runner you referred to).

Good morning Guys,

Arrived at Heathrow T5 earlier and now ready for 5 days R&R and an English food fix.

A shorter than usual Saturday post as i need to go into the cess pit that is Hounslow.

Imperial Cup day at Sandown (i decided not to go as it's a tricky card) but gone are the days when punters would look for a Martin/David Pipe entry with the proverbial stone in hand. Paul Nicholls has 3 in the race and i've fancied the lightly raced Samarrive (2.55) ever since i saw the card several days ago. He appears to be the stable main hope with Harry taking the ride.

I was at the Tingle Creek meeting with a couple of guys off here and backed it @ 8/1 when it won (apologies for the aftertiming and it was only a tenner EW). He was quite impressive that afternoon and looked the winner at the 2nd last, albeit off a low mark of 130. Has to put a poor run at Ascot LTO behind him, but that was surely not his true running. Better class and up in the weights (runs off 139) but lightly raced and in my opinion is an EW bet at 16/1 (WH pay first 7 places). I backed earlier @ 20.0 on here, but only to a small stake.

The same odds will not be available on Prince Escalus (Hereford 2.41) but if there is an odds against shortie to back he's as good as any this afternoon. Another one lighty raced (only 3 runs over fences) with a progressive profile, won well over CD in January and the runner-up has franked the form in a similar race at Newbury. A soft lead looks likely and it doesn't look a particularly strong field. I backed this one earlier @ 2.20 and although drifted to slightly better odds i think he will win.

I have a possible lay selection at the same meeting and may post it after lunch.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

PHS

Thanks for the ttt.

Thank you ANDREW 

Afternoon Andrew,
Tks for the write up, good luck and enjoy being back for the next few days.

easy winner , thanks Andrew

Good morning Guys from a cloudy West of London.

Many thanks for the posts.

I did the right thing by skipping Sandown; as mentioned in my post i thought it was a tricky card and if i had gone i would have lost. Instead i met up with my non-betting (well rarely) Nephew and his g/f and went to a Hounslow shop to watch a race at Hereford.

Only a couple of selections yesterday and one of them (Samarrive EW @ 16/1) in the Imperial Cup who is probably crossing the line as i type these words (actually finished 9th). Generally raced in midfield and never really got into the race. Disappointing, but these typical large handicaps are rarely easy to solve.

As for the aptly named Irish winner Surprise Package (20/1) was this a warning of what's to come next week. Only his 4th run in a handicap, won easily giving 21lb away to the runner-up so it will be less of a surprise if he wins the County Hurdle on Friday.

The shortie selection Prince Escalus (5/4f) ran his rivals ragged making all as expected. Tended to jump left as he had in his previous run over CD, but was always in command and looked the winner before the 2nd last. Winning time compared to standard was good considering the ground. It didn't look a particularly strong field, but he's a progressive type and can win again. My Nephew was happy as i told him to put a tenner on it.

Typical Sunday cards this afternoon, more so considering the festival starts on Tuesday. It appears to be a benefit day for Brian Hughes at Bangor on Dee and to a lesser extent for Willie Mullins at Limerick, although with respect to the latter, when isn't it. The best NH trainer around in my opinion and although it can be argued he has the best horses, there's a reason for it. I will be surprised if he isn't the festival top trainer next week and regular readers know i particularly want one of his favourites to hose in on the final day.

I had a good review of this afternoons cards earlier, but there wasn't much that jumped off the page. A possible lay in mind, but so far the only one i've backed is Slip Of The Tongue (Naas 2.20) so i hope that WPM doesn't follow my expected thinking outlined in the previous paragraph.

It looks a half-decent novice hurdle and the front two in the betting were only separated by 0.75L at Punchestown LTO, with SOTT getting the betting of Deploy The Getaway. The latter is 4lb better off by virtue of his main rival subject to a winners penalty, but i thought SOTT was the better horse and he made a hash of the final flight. The runner-up form with Teahuppoo in his penultimate race reads well and he looks to be improving.

A different track (and direction) this afternoon, but he should be suited by Naas with it's stiff uphill finish. It's not a match by any means and should be a good race to watch but i think SOTT will win (backed @ 2.74).

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Ebroman

Thanks for correcting the race time, i blame jet-lag coming from Germany.

Trusty

WD with the Balco Coastal (9/2f) lay, never in doubt and PU. I can never understand the often used trainers explanation "was unsuited by the soft going and would prefer a quicker surface".

The Management

I appreciate the WD, but was surprised by your comments about the poster Happysandwich. He stopped his 'Boris' thread due to your unnecessary harrasment on his previous 2, even after stating it was only a bit of fun and myself requesting to give him a break.

You may consider it as 'discussion' or 'banter', but not everyone would agree and although i may (up to a point) that you can't be offended on an annonymous forum, i really can't understand why you mentioned him weeks after he quit the forum. You are fully aware he's 80 years old, in poor health (no cure) and the Boris thread was a pastime to pass a few hours away each day. You are probably going to see many Cheltenham festivals in forthcoming years, he will not. Give it a rest please.

I plan to see him and his wife before i return to Germany so i will pass on your best wishes.

Andrew - I don't want to bog down your thread, so I will just post this one reply:

Regardless of age, health, stubbornness, openness/receptiveness to discussion/views etc - if somebody is publicly churning out selections on an open forum and after 13 weeks is winning 3 points (zero points after commission!) via their interpretation of those selections; And somebody points out that via a different interpretation (of those very same selections) that they could be + 200 points (after commission!) - regardless of age, health and all the other emotive claptrap - the actual cruel, mean, nasty thing to do, would have been to say nothing.

The boris' bottle thread - was simply a reincarnation (with a tweak) of the doomed Hatrick Seekers thread - I really can't be arsed to dig it out - but I lost all empathy/sympathy for your poor old (and ill) mate a long time ago, when he threw his toys out of the pram at the prospect of a handful of other posters initially trying to help him and/or have an interesting side discussion on that thread.

I'm sorry he's old and ill (that probably applies to a good few on here) but it's a forum and you should consider yourself lucky (imo) if you start a thread that stimulates interest or discussion from others - even if it doesn't always go in the direction you hoped/imagined.

I haven't banned him or shot him, he is free to post or not - if he wants to sulk like a six year old and play the age/health card, that is his prerogative - I wish him well with his age and his health.

*2.45

Well done Andrew,I hope you enjoy your few days in the UK.

n1 Andrew !! Well beaten.

Well done Andrew - but yet again (it really is the gift that keeps on giving) Happy has trumped you and (inadvertently) fired in winners at BFSPs of 15.60 and 13.00, winning both the Grade 3 Irish Novice Hurdle races today!

The strike rate (if focussing on the right races) is utterly phenomenal - it really is a shame that all those months ago he just wanted to throttle any constructive views or discussion.

updated results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=1129741996

A little distraction from the Festival - I posted this on here when reviewing Love Dreams last run at Southwell:

"The horse to emerge with credit and one to keep in mind, was Dance At Night. A 4-y-old gelding trained by Andrew Balding for Jeff Smith, he was 4th at halfway and 4th at the finish, suggesting he can do better off his current mark ridden more patiently."

Dance At Night is being sent from KIngsclere to Newcastle tomorrow to contest a 0-75 over 1M, and is currently on offer as big as 9/1 in a nine runner event. Whether he'll be ridden more patiently is open to question as the jockey booked is Jason Watson, who was on Love Dreams at Southwell!

Some info on the favourite for the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, Gaelic Warrior. The normal reaction to the presence of a maiden that hasn't run since Auteuil in early June would be 'no chance', but this isn't normal.

To begin with the horse is now with Mullins and the choice of stable jockey Paul Townend. And probably even more important is that our handicapper has completely failed to read or understand the form in France. Since Gaelic Warrior finished third at Auteuil, the first and second have gone on to success in Group company, and the fourth, unbeaten in his other five starts over hurdles, has won the French equivalent of the Triumph Hurdle. Here's the video of that race - Gaelic Warrior in green with vertical dark stripes and a white cap:

https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2021-06-05/R1/C2

If you take that form at face value (which is what a handicapper is supposed to do), I reckon Gaelic Warrior should be on a mark of around 144. He hasn't been given a mark in Ireland, so it's entirely down to our man that he's running here off 129. Of course, inexperience might beat him (although he picked his way through a big field in that video OK), and there's just a hint in that film of him being outpaced before staying on, which could be an issue round the Old Course. But that race was over the short course at Auteuil, about 1m 7f, and it was run in 3m 37s.

If Carling did juvenile hurdlers, this would probably be one of theirs!

G Warrior runs can be seen on ATR websites
His running on Auteil soft leaves a big question
And his jumping is very French
Not for me

Trusty/ISLL

Thank you Andrew 

Yes  I will  betting  every  race
Its CHELTENHAM

Great call Andrew. Absolutely mullered them.

Thanks Guys, i love the horse and although the race fell apart he's a bit special.

Good evening Guys,

A profitable day with both back selections winning and the EW scraping into 7th (several shops were quoting 7 places as mentioned, i was on with Betfred).

There is no need for me to describe the manner in which Constitution Hill won, we've all seen it, but even i was surprised how effortless it was this afternoon and i'm a big fan as most readers know. It's not only the distance he won by that set him apart, his demeanour in the paddock and at the start (so relaxed he's almost asleep) travelled strongly off a fast pace and his turn of foot is on a par with the best flat horses. I seriously thought he had it won approaching the 3rd last flight and i hope there was nobody in my adjacent hotel room because i was shouting him home from that point. Dysart Dynamo was travelling well enough when he fell, but wouldn't have got close to the winner.

The winning time (eased down) broke the track record and was 5.78 seconds quicker than Honeysuckle in the Champion hurdle who was carrying 4lb less. To put this into perspective, using the BHA length/second scale this equates to 26L although it was a slower pace in the latter race to be fair and they are obviously not this far apart.

Post race, there was talk by Michael Buckley of a match in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, but i doubt this will happen, i think he will take in one of the novice events over there and win at 1/10. Mind you, i can't see him losing this season wherever he goes.

Honeysuckle showed she is one of the best hurdlers in racing history, but come next March i know which one i will be backing. Having said this, today is not the time to discuss a race one year ahead, instead it's better to remember an afternoon when we saw a couple of superb racehorses. My regret is that i didn't join a couple of guys (including one forum poster) at the course and i had every chance. Never mind, i won a nice few bob and it's always nice starting off a festival in front.

My EW selection Fantastikas (Ultima Handicap) was well backed and held every chance 3 fences out, but faded, albeit hung on for 7th place, providing me with enough profit to pay for the edible goodies i took to my room.

On a sad note, the Gary Moore trained Shallwehaveonemore was fatally injured in the Supreme. RIP

Alan

Gaelic Warrior (another one well backed) was the moral winner and but for continually jumping to the right would have hosed up. Unlucky.

I thought the Jeff Smith owned runner Dance At Night ran well at Newcastle conceding almost a stone to the winner, in fact at one stage i thought he might win.

Have a nice evening all (what's left of it).